Cagliari 1-0 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AS Roma (50%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as Cagliari face AS Roma.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 14 as Cagliari welcome AS Roma to Unipol Domus. Kick-off is set for Sunday 7 December 2025 at 14:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Cagliari have gone 1W 4D 5L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: L L D D L. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.70 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Cagliari, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Cagliari at Unipol Domus this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 home games — 1.10 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
AS Roma — All Games: 7W 0D 3L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AS Roma's form when playing away from home: 7W 1D 2L across 10 road games this term (2.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
Form points away from home here. AS Roma's 2.10 PPG return is 1.40 points per game ahead of Cagliari's 0.70 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
Head to Head
Despite the anticipated home advantage, AS Roma have the better historical record — 5 wins from 6 previous contests against 0 for Cagliari.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 2.3 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 16 Mar 2025, ended 0–1 with AS Roma winning.
It is worth noting that AS Roma have a superior record in this fixture despite their visitor status — 5 wins from 6 meetings. Home advantage alone is not a sufficient reason to dismiss that track record.
In-Play Data
Cagliari trading profile (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
AS Roma trading profile (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cagliari 51% versus AS Roma 41%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cagliari 47% | AS Roma 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cagliari 0.94 xG and AS Roma 1.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cagliari attack 1.013 / defence 1.246 | AS Roma attack 1.094 / defence 0.744. League average goals — home 1.248 / away 1.126. AS Roma's defence strength of 0.744 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 51 Cagliari games / 51 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cagliari 22% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 50%. Fair-value odds: Cagliari 4.55 | Draw 3.57 | AS Roma 2.00. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.48. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.48 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 50% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.48 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Cagliari 50% | AS Roma 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cagliari vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: Unipol Domus • Kick-off: Sunday 7 Dec 2025, 14:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cagliari 22% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 50% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 49% | xG Cagliari 0.94 / AS Roma 1.54 • Poisson strength factors: Cagliari attack 1.013 / def 1.246 | AS Roma attack 1.094 / def 0.744 | league avg home 1.248 / away 1.126 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.94
Cagliari xG
Expected Goals
1.54
AS Roma xG
49%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cagliari vs AS Roma kick off?
Cagliari vs AS Roma kicked off at 14:00 on Sunday 7 December 2025 at Unipol Domus.
What was the final score in Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Cagliari 1 - 0 AS Roma.
Where is Cagliari vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at Unipol Domus.
What competition is Cagliari vs AS Roma part of?
Cagliari vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Cagliari a 22% chance of winning, AS Roma a 50% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Cagliari and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Cagliari vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and AS Roma?
Record (6 meetings): Cagliari 0W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 5W.
What form are Cagliari and AS Roma in?
Cagliari (all comps): 1W-4D-5L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 L-L-D-D-L. AS Roma (all comps): 7W-0D-3L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.60 | L5 W-L-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cagliari's attacking strength (1.01x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.74x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.94. The same calculation in reverse, AS Roma's attack versus Cagliari's defence, projects 1.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.7%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.3%), 0-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
22%
4.52
28%
3.60
50%
2.00
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.1%
Draw
0 – 2
9.9%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.94
Cagliari xG
Total xG
2.48
1.54
AS Roma xG
4.52
22%
Home win
3.60
28%
Draw
2.00
50%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.04
51%
BTTS No
1.96
Clean Sheet
22%
4.65
39%
2.56
Win to Nil
5%
21.01
20%
5.11
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.4 | 12.9 | 9.9 | 5.1 | 1.9 | 0.6 |
| 1 | 7.9 | 12.1 | 9.3 | 4.8 | 1.8 | 0.6 |
| 2 | 3.7 | 5.7 | 4.4 | 2.2 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.8 | 1.4 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.7%.
How many goals are Cagliari and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 0.94 expected goals for Cagliari and 1.54 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.48.
How confident is the prediction model for Cagliari vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cagliari come into this having played 51 games, going 11W 14D 26L for 0.92 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-D-L. The sample for Cagliari is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, AS Roma sit at 1.88 PPG from 51 outings (29W 9D 13L), a run that reads W-L-W-W-L across their last five. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.96 PPG clear of Cagliari — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Cagliari's home form reads 7W 6D 12L across 25 games on their own ground, a 1.08 PPG return.
Away from home, AS Roma have taken 1.72 points per game from 25 outings (12W 7D 6L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Cagliari are averaging 1.04 goals scored and 1.47 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.39 scored and 0.82 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cagliari
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cagliari and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Cagliari have gone 11W 14D 26L in their last 51 games (0.92 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 29W 9D 13L in their last 51 (1.88 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cagliari at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.72 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cagliari at home: 1.08 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.72 PPG.
Have Cagliari or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cagliari have kept a clean sheet in 18% of their recent games, AS Roma in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 9 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 5 Feb 2024, when AS Roma won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cagliari's record when hosting AS Roma specifically: 1W 1D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cagliari
1
Draws
6
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cagliari and AS Roma?
From 8 meetings on record, Cagliari have won 1, AS Roma have won 6, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Cagliari and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 9 February 2026, when AS Roma 2-0 Cagliari.
Who has won more matches between Cagliari and AS Roma?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cagliari are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cagliari 48%, AS Roma 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Cagliari) and 28% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 44%; Cagliari have failed to score in 36% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cagliari home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cagliari play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of Cagliari's recent matches and 44% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cagliari vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Cagliari's recent games and 28% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cagliari and AS Roma tend to score early?
Cagliari have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Cagliari defy the odds to beat AS Roma 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cagliari beat AS Roma 1-0 at Unipol Domus, Regular Season - 14, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cagliari 0.94 xG and AS Roma 1.54 xG, a combined 2.48. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma landed 1.5 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cagliari attack 1.01 / defence 1.25 against AS Roma attack 1.09 / defence 0.74, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cagliari 22% | Draw 28% | AS Roma 50%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Cagliari win, an outcome the model had rated at just 22% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 72% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 41% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cagliari 47%, AS Roma 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cagliari's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not.
AS Roma's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.92. Form was overturned, with Cagliari winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Cagliari (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.52 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.08 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.