Bologna vs Monza – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 45% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 10 as Bologna welcome Monza to . Kick-off is set for Sunday 1 November 2026 at 17:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 4W 2D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.40 PPG return. Last five: W W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Bologna have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Bologna at this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 home games — 0.80 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.70 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.40 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at this season.
Monza — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W W L L L. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.70. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Monza have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.40 PPG (Bologna) versus 1.40 (Monza). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Bologna, 1 for Monza and 2 shared spoils from 6 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 6 previous meetings have averaged 1.8 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 18 Jan 2025, ended 3–1 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (40 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 40% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; BTTS occurs in 30% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 35% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Monza trading profile (40 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 60% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 42% versus Monza 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 42% | Monza 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.43 xG and Monza 1.07 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.860 / defence 1.012 | Monza attack 0.854 / defence 1.423. League average goals — home 1.167 / away 1.233. Monza bring a strong defensive rating of 1.423 — this is suppressing Bologna's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 40 Bologna games / 2 Monza games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bologna 45% | Draw 26% | Monza 28%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.22 | Draw 3.85 | Monza 3.57. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 50% | Total xG 2.50. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.50 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 50% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 28% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 45% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by H2H averaging 1.8 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 50% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 20% | Monza 60% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (2 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 10 | Venue: • Kick-off: Sunday 1 Nov 2026, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 45% | Draw 26% | Monza 28% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 50% | xG Bologna 1.43 / Monza 1.07 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.860 / def 1.012 | Monza attack 0.854 / def 1.423 | league avg home 1.167 / away 1.233 • Poisson stance: Bologna (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.07
Monza xG
50%
BTTS
71%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Monza kick off?
Bologna vs Monza is scheduled to kick off at 17:30 on Sunday 1 November 2026.
What competition is Bologna vs Monza part of?
Bologna vs Monza is a Regular Season - 10 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 45% chance of winning, Monza a 28% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 50% probability that both Bologna and Monza will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Monza?
Record (6 meetings): Bologna 3W | Draws 2 | Monza 1W.
What form are Bologna and Monza in?
Bologna (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-L. Monza (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.70 | L5 W-W-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (0.86x league average) is weighed against Monza's defensive record (1.42x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.07 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (40/2 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.2%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
45%
2.20
26%
3.78
28%
3.55
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
2 – 1
9.0%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.50
1.07
Monza xG
2.20
45%
Home win
3.78
26%
Draw
3.55
28%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
50%
BTTS Yes
2.01
50%
BTTS No
1.99
Clean Sheet
34%
2.90
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
16%
6.40
7%
14.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.8 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.8 | 12.6 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 9.0 | 4.8 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.0 | 4.3 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Bologna and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Bologna and 1.07 for Monza, a combined total of 2.50.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 40 games, going 16W 8D 16L for 1.40 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for Bologna, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.90 PPG from 40 outings (22W 10D 8L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Monza, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Monza carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 6W 4D 10L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.10 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.65 points per game from 20 outings (9W 6D 5L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Monza come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.23 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.65 scored and 1.02 conceded.
Defensively: Monza in 38% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 40 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Early Season
Monza
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Monza in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 16W 8D 16L in their last 40 games (1.40 PPG), while Monza have gone 22W 10D 8L in their last 40 (1.90 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Monza away?
Monza's away record (1.65 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.10 PPG; Monza away: 1.65 PPG.
Have Bologna or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, Monza in 38%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
6 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 18 January 2025, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Bologna have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Bologna's record when hosting Monza specifically: 1W 1D 1L from 3 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 6 Meetings
3
Bologna
2
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Monza?
From 6 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Monza have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Monza last play each other?
They last met on 18 January 2025, when Bologna 3-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Monza?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 6 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 40% of their matches.
Monza are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 60% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 30%, Monza 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 35% (Bologna) and 50% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 35% of their matches; Monza in 40%; Bologna have failed to score in 45% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Monza?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 30% of Bologna's recent matches and 50% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Monza usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 35% of Bologna's recent games and 50% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Monza tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 40% of their recent matches, Monza in 60% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.