Bologna 3-1 Monza – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 46% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Monza encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Bologna welcome Monza to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A (matchday 21). Kick-off is Saturday 18 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bologna have gone 5W 3D 2L — a 1.80 PPG return. Last five: W W L D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Bologna at home: 3W 6D 1L from their last 10 home games — 1.50 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Monza — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — a high rate that makes Yes a well-evidenced angle from their form.
Monza's form when playing away from home: 1W 4D 5L across their last 10 road games (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game.
Bologna carry the stronger recent momentum — 1.30 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.80 vs 0.50. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 5 H2H matches, Bologna have won 2, Monza 1, with 2 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 5 H2H matches in our data have been tight, averaging just 1.4 goals per game — a meaningful input for the Under 2.5 market. The most recent of those, on 22 Sep 2024, ended Bologna 2–1 Monza — a Bologna win.
With a balanced win record and just 1.4 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (last 57 games, 27 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 59% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 63% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 57%; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 37% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time.
Monza trading profile (last 57 games, 27 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 49% versus Monza 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 47% | Monza 44%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.47 xG and Monza 1.03 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.048 / defence 0.952 | Monza attack 0.833 / defence 1.086. League average goals — home 1.292 / away 1.304. Data: built from Bologna's last 57 games and Monza's last 58.
Result probabilities: Bologna 46% | Draw 29% | Monza 25%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 2.19 | Draw 3.43 | Monza 3.98. Bologna hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (29%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.51. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.51 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bologna as the most likely outcome at 46% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bologna offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.51 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.4 goals per game across 5 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Bologna 60% (last 10 home games) | Monza 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Monza | Competition: Serie A, matchday 21 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 18 January 2025 at 14:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 46% | Draw 29% | Monza 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG Bologna 1.47 / Monza 1.03 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.048 / def 0.952 | Monza attack 0.833 / def 1.086 | league avg home 1.292 / away 1.304 • Poisson stance: Bologna (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.03
Monza xG
51%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bologna vs Monza FAQs
What time does Bologna vs Monza kick off?
Bologna vs Monza kicked off at 14:00 UK time on Saturday 18 January 2025 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Monza?
Bologna 3 - 1 Monza.
Where is Bologna vs Monza being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Monza part of?
Bologna vs Monza is a Serie A fixture (matchday 21) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Monza?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 46% chance of winning, Monza a 25% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Monza?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Bologna and Monza will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bologna vs Monza have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (1.05x league average) is weighed against Monza's defensive record (1.09x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.47. The same calculation in reverse, Monza's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.03 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bologna's last 57 games and Monza's last 58 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 0-0 (9.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
46%
2.19
29%
3.43
25%
3.98
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
2 – 1
9.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.51
1.03
Monza xG
2.19
46%
Home win
3.43
29%
Draw
3.98
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.95
49%
BTTS No
2.05
Clean Sheet
36%
2.82
23%
4.35
Win to Nil
16%
6.16
6%
17.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.2 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 12.4 | 6.4 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.8 | 9.1 | 4.7 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.5 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bologna vs Monza Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Monza?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Bologna and Monza expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Bologna and 1.03 for Monza, a combined total of 2.51.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Monza?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 57 games, going 25W 23D 9L for 1.72 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-L-D-D.
On the other side, Monza sit at 1.02 PPG from 57 outings (13W 19D 25L), a run that reads L-L-L-L-W across their last five.
Bologna carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.70 PPG clear of Monza — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 15W 10D 2L across their last 27 home games, a 2.04 PPG return.
Away from home, Monza have taken 1.04 points per game from their last 27 away games (6W 10D 11L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.46 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Monza are on 1.02 scored and 1.35 conceded.
Defensively: Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Monza
Blended
Bologna (Home) vs Monza (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bologna
Blended
Monza
Blended
❓ Bologna vs Monza Form FAQs
What form are Bologna and Monza in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 25W 23D 9L in their last 57 games (1.72 PPG), while Monza have gone 13W 19D 25L in their last 57 (1.02 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Monza away?
Bologna's home record (2.04 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 2.04 PPG; Monza away: 1.04 PPG.
Have Bologna or Monza been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 40% of their recent games, Monza in 25%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 7 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2022. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was as recently as 31 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: Bologna have taken the most recent 3 H2H results in our data.
Bologna's record when hosting Monza specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
4
Bologna
2
Draws
1
Monza
Recent Meetings
❓ Bologna vs Monza H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Monza?
Across the 7 head-to-head matches in our data, Bologna have won 4, Monza have won 1, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Monza last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 31 October 2026: Bologna 2-1 Monza.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Monza?
Bologna have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 7 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 67% of those situations.
Monza see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 41%, Monza 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 37% (Bologna) and 41% (Monza).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Monza in 44%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Monza away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bologna vs Monza Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bologna and Monza matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 41% of Bologna's recent matches and 44% of Monza's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bologna and Monza matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 37% of Bologna's recent games and 41% of Monza's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Bologna cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Monza.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Monza 3-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 21, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.47 xG and Monza 1.03 xG, a combined 2.51. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 1.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.05 / defence 0.95 against Monza attack 0.83 / defence 1.09, drawn from 57/58 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 46% | Draw 29% | Monza 25%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 46%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 24% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 47%, Monza 44%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (57 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 40% of the time, and conceded here.
Monza's trading profile (57 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bologna arrived the stronger side — 1.72 PPG against 1.02. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.67 average — above their attacking norm. Monza (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.30 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit), form (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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