Bologna 0-0 Lazio – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Lazio at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bologna vs Lazio fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Serie A clash, Regular Season - 26 as Bologna welcome Lazio to Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. Kick-off is set for Saturday 11 March 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 5W 1D 4L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Bologna have gone 5W 2D 3L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Across all Serie A games this season, Lazio have recorded 5W 3D 2L from 10 outings — 1.80 PPG. Last five: D L W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. This season is still relatively young for Lazio, so this record blends games from this season and last.
On the road, Lazio have gone 7W 1D 2L from 10 away fixtures this term (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 7 away clean sheets from 10 games (70%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bologna 1.60 PPG, Lazio 1.80 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Bologna, 2 for Lazio and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.0 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Aug 2022, ended 1–2 with Lazio winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Bologna trading profile (63 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games).
Lazio trading profile (63 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 84% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; they lead at the break 46% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 52% versus Lazio 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 51% | Lazio 64%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 0.77 xG and Lazio 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.890 / defence 0.827 | Lazio attack 1.173 / defence 0.674. League average goals — home 1.285 / away 1.116. Lazio's defence strength of 0.674 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Bologna games / 63 Lazio games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 26% | Draw 32% | Lazio 42%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 3.85 | Draw 3.12 | Lazio 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 28% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.85. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 72% probability — total xG of 1.85 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Lazio as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Lazio offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.85 combined xG gives a 28% probability to Under 2.5 — marginal — conflicting signals, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 36% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 40% | Lazio 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Lazio | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Saturday 11 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 26% | Draw 32% | Lazio 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 28% | BTTS 36% | xG Bologna 0.77 / Lazio 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.890 / def 0.827 | Lazio attack 1.173 / def 0.674 | league avg home 1.285 / away 1.116 • Poisson stance: Lazio (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.77
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Lazio xG
36%
BTTS
55%
Over 1.5
28%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Lazio kick off?
Bologna vs Lazio kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 11 March 2023 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Lazio?
Bologna 0 - 0 Lazio.
Where is Bologna vs Lazio being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Lazio part of?
Bologna vs Lazio is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Lazio?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 26% chance of winning, Lazio a 42% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Lazio the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Lazio?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Bologna and Lazio will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Lazio have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 28%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lazio?
Record (3 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 0 | Lazio 2W.
What form are Bologna and Lazio in?
Bologna (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Lazio (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-L-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bologna's attack at 0.89x the league average against Lazio's defence at 0.67x — combine the two and it projects 0.77 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Lazio's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.08 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 63/63 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 17.4% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (15.3%), 1-1 (14.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Lazio Win
26%
3.89
32%
3.15
42%
2.35
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
17.0%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.7%
Draw
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.77
Bologna xG
Total xG
1.85
1.08
Lazio xG
3.89
26%
Home win
3.15
32%
Draw
2.35
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
55%
Over 1.5
1.82
45%
Under 1.5
2.22
28%
Over 2.5
3.57
72%
Under 2.5
1.39
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.82
64%
BTTS No
1.55
Clean Sheet
34%
2.95
46%
2.16
Win to Nil
9%
11.46
20%
5.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.7 | 17.0 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.9 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 12.1 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.7 | 5.0 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Lazio?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.4%.
How many goals are Bologna and Lazio expected to score?
The model projects 0.77 expected goals for Bologna and 1.08 for Lazio, a combined total of 1.85.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Lazio?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna come into this having played 63 games, going 22W 15D 26L for 1.29 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-W-W-L. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Lazio sit at 1.78 PPG from 63 outings (32W 16D 15L), a run that reads D-L-W-W-W across their last five. The sample for Lazio is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Lazio carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.49 PPG clear of Bologna — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Bologna's home form reads 13W 8D 10L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.52 PPG return.
Away from home, Lazio have taken 1.68 points per game from 31 outings (15W 7D 9L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 1.41 conceded per game recently; Lazio are on 1.87 scored and 1.22 conceded.
Defensively: Lazio in 37% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Lazio
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Lazio in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 22W 15D 26L in their last 63 games (1.29 PPG), while Lazio have gone 32W 16D 15L in their last 63 (1.78 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Lazio away?
Lazio's away record (1.68 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.52 PPG; Lazio away: 1.68 PPG.
Have Bologna or Lazio been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 27% of their recent games, Lazio in 37%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to October 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 22 March 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 16 Mar 2025, when Bologna won 5-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Lazio specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bologna
2
Draws
4
Lazio
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Lazio?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 4, Lazio have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Lazio last play each other?
They last met on 22 March 2026, when Bologna 0-2 Lazio.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Lazio are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 84% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 45% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 45%, Lazio 48% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Bologna) and 64% (Lazio).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches; Lazio in 36%; Bologna have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Lazio away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Lazio?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 45% of Bologna's recent matches and 48% of Lazio's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Lazio usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Bologna's recent games and 64% of Lazio's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Lazio tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 58% of their recent matches, Lazio in 84% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Bologna's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna and Lazio finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 26, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 0.77 xG and Lazio 1.08 xG, a combined 1.85. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Lazio landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.89 / defence 0.83 against Lazio attack 1.17 / defence 0.67, drawn from 63/63 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 26% | Draw 32% | Lazio 42%, with Lazio to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 28%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 55% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 57% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 51%, Lazio 64%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (63 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 29% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Lazio's trading profile (63 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, Lazio arrived the stronger side — 1.78 PPG against 1.29. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Bologna (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.26 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.03 average — tighter than their form line. Lazio (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.74 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.29 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.