Bologna 2-1 Inter – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Inter at 49% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Inter encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Inter at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off is scheduled for Wednesday 27 April 2022 at 19:15 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bologna stand at 2W 5D 3L from 10 Serie A matches — 1.10 PPG. Last five: L D W D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
Bologna at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara this season: 3W 3D 4L from 10 home games — 1.20 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.10 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Inter — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.90 PPG. Last five: D W W W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 0.70. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Inter away from home this season: 5W 5D 0L from 10 away games — 2.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 0.40 conceded per game. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Inter are 0.80 PPG ahead (1.90 vs 1.10), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 1 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Bologna, 1 for Inter and 0 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 1 meetings have averaged 7.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 18 Sep 2021, ended 1–6 with Inter winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 7.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Bologna in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 50% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
Inter in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; they lead at the break 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 39%; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 46% versus Inter 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 48% | Inter 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 0.81 xG and Inter 1.39 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 0.882 / defence 1.046 | Inter attack 1.038 / defence 0.870. League average goals — home 1.050 / away 1.277. Data: 33 Bologna games / 33 Inter games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 21% | Draw 30% | Inter 49%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 4.76 | Draw 3.33 | Inter 2.04. Inter hold a narrow Poisson edge at 49% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.19. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.19 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Inter as the most likely outcome at 49% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 30% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Inter offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.19 combined xG gives a 38% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 43% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 30% | Inter 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Inter | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Wednesday 27 Apr 2022, 19:15 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 21% | Draw 30% | Inter 49% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 43% | xG Bologna 0.81 / Inter 1.39 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 0.882 / def 1.046 | Inter attack 1.038 / def 0.870 | league avg home 1.050 / away 1.277 • Poisson stance: Inter (49%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.81
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
1.39
Inter xG
43%
BTTS
65%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Inter kick off?
Bologna vs Inter kicked off at 19:15 on Wednesday 27 April 2022 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Inter?
Bologna 2 - 1 Inter.
Where is Bologna vs Inter being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Inter part of?
Bologna vs Inter is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Inter?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 21% chance of winning, Inter a 49% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Inter the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Inter?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bologna and Inter will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Inter have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Inter?
Record (1 meetings): Bologna 0W | Draws 0 | Inter 1W.
What form are Bologna and Inter in?
Bologna (all comps): 2W-5D-3L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-D-W-D-D. Inter (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.70 | L5 D-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bologna's attack rating (0.88) and Inter's defence rating (0.87), the model arrives at 0.81 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Inter's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 1.39 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.1%. Close behind: 0-1 (13.9%), 0-0 (12.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Inter Win
21%
4.84
30%
3.35
49%
2.02
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
15.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.5%
Draw
0 – 0
11.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.81
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.19
1.39
Inter xG
4.84
21%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
2.02
49%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.35
57%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
25%
4.00
45%
2.24
Win to Nil
5%
19.34
22%
4.52
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.2 | 15.5 | 10.7 | 5.0 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 9.0 | 12.5 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 3.6 | 5.0 | 3.5 | 1.6 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.4 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Inter?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.1%.
How many goals are Bologna and Inter expected to score?
The model projects 0.81 expected goals for Bologna and 1.39 for Inter, a combined total of 2.19.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Inter?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 49%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Bologna have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 10W 9D 14L record — L-D-W-D-D across the most recent five.
Inter's form line: 21W 9D 3L from 33 games, 2.18 PPG, last five D-W-W-W-W.
Put side by side, Inter are the form team by 1.00 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Bologna.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bologna have posted 1.38 PPG from 16 outings (6W 4D 6L).
On the road, Inter have gone 9W 6D 1L from 16 away games — 2.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Inter come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bologna are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; Inter are on 2.15 scored and 0.79 conceded.
Defensively: Inter in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Current Season
Inter
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Inter in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 10W 9D 14L in their last 33 games (1.18 PPG), while Inter have gone 21W 9D 3L in their last 33 (2.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Inter away?
Inter's away record (2.06 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.38 PPG; Inter away: 2.06 PPG.
Have Bologna or Inter been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 33% of their recent games, Inter in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bologna and Inter runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. The two were last together as recently as 23 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 18 Sep 2021, when Inter won 6-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bologna's record when hosting Inter specifically: 3W 1D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bologna
3
Draws
4
Inter
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Inter?
From 10 meetings on record, Bologna have won 3, Inter have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Inter last play each other?
They last met on 23 May 2026, when Bologna 3-3 Inter.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Inter?
Inter have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bologna see a goal before the break in 50% of their matches.
Inter are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 31% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 31%, Inter 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Bologna) and 50% (Inter).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Inter in 44%; Bologna have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Inter away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Inter?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of Bologna's recent matches and 56% of Inter's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Inter usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Bologna's recent games and 50% of Inter's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Inter tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 50% of their recent matches, Inter in 88% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Bologna defy the odds to beat Inter 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bologna beat Inter 2-1 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 20, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 0.81 xG and Inter 1.39 xG, a combined 2.19. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Bologna beat their projection by 1.2 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 0.88 / defence 1.05 against Inter attack 1.04 / defence 0.87, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 21% | Draw 30% | Inter 49%, with Inter to win its most likely call at 49%. Instead the game produced a Bologna win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 65% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 48%, Inter 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Inter's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Inter arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.18. Form was overturned, with Bologna winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Bologna (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.19 average — above their attacking norm. Inter (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.88 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.75 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.