Bologna 1-1 Genoa – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Bologna at 62% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bologna vs Genoa encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bologna host Genoa at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara in Serie A, Regular Season - 19. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 5 January 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Serie A games this season, Bologna have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: D W W W L. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for Bologna, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Bologna have posted 7W 2D 1L at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara — 2.30 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Genoa — All Games: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Serie A fixtures this season — 1.20 PPG. Last five: D L D W D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Genoa, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Genoa's form when playing away from home: 2W 1D 7L across 10 road games this term (0.70 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.70 is notably below their overall 1.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On current form, Bologna have the edge — a 0.80 PPG advantage (2.00 vs 1.20) represents a meaningful gap. That momentum makes them the form-based pick, though if the outright price looks short, Draw No Bet is worth comparing.
Head to Head
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 2 previous meetings, Bologna have won 1, Genoa 0, with 1 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 May 2022, ended 1–0 with Bologna winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Bologna in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; BTTS occurs in 43% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (home games).
Genoa in-play and half-time data (56 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bologna 57% versus Genoa 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bologna 48% | Genoa 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bologna 1.55 xG and Genoa 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bologna attack 1.037 / defence 0.652 | Genoa attack 0.795 / defence 1.096. League average goals — home 1.363 / away 1.036. Bologna's defence rating of 0.652 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 56 Bologna games / 18 Genoa games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bologna 62% | Draw 26% | Genoa 12%. Fair-value odds: Bologna 1.61 | Draw 3.85 | Genoa 8.33. The model has a clear lean to Bologna (62%) — a 50pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 33% | Total xG 2.08. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.08 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 67% — Genoa's lower xG of 0.54 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 33%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Bologna at 62% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.08 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 35% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 33%. Form rates corroborate: Bologna 30% | Genoa 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bologna vs Genoa | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Stadio Renato Dall'Ara • Kick-off: Friday 5 Jan 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bologna 62% | Draw 26% | Genoa 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 33% | xG Bologna 1.55 / Genoa 0.54 • Poisson strength factors: Bologna attack 1.037 / def 0.652 | Genoa attack 0.795 / def 1.096 | league avg home 1.363 / away 1.036 • Poisson stance: Bologna (62%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Bologna xG
Expected Goals
0.54
Genoa xG
33%
BTTS
62%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bologna vs Genoa kick off?
Bologna vs Genoa kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 5 January 2024 at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What was the final score in Bologna vs Genoa?
Bologna 1 - 1 Genoa.
Where is Bologna vs Genoa being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara.
What competition is Bologna vs Genoa part of?
Bologna vs Genoa is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Bologna vs Genoa?
Our statistical model gives Bologna a 62% chance of winning, Genoa a 12% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Bologna the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bologna vs Genoa?
Our model estimates a 33% probability that both Bologna and Genoa will score (BTTS).
Will Bologna vs Genoa have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Genoa?
Record (2 meetings): Bologna 1W | Draws 1 | Genoa 0W.
What form are Bologna and Genoa in?
Bologna (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.90 | L5 D-W-W-W-L. Genoa (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bologna's attacking strength (1.04x league average) is weighed against Genoa's defensive record (1.10x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Genoa's attack versus Bologna's defence, projects 0.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 56/18 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 17.9%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.9%), 0-0 (13.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bologna Win
62%
1.62
26%
3.86
12%
8.17
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.2%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.9%
Home win
0 – 0
12.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Bologna xG
Total xG
2.08
0.54
Genoa xG
1.62
62%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
8.17
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
33%
BTTS Yes
3.02
67%
BTTS No
1.50
Clean Sheet
58%
1.71
21%
4.70
Win to Nil
36%
2.77
3%
38.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.4 | 6.7 | 1.8 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.2 | 10.3 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.9 | 8.0 | 2.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.7 | 4.1 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 3.0 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bologna vs Genoa?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Bologna and Genoa expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Bologna and 0.54 for Genoa, a combined total of 2.08.
How confident is the prediction model for Bologna vs Genoa?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 62%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bologna's recent record stands at 22W 19D 15L from 56 games, a 1.52 PPG return, with D-W-W-W-L in the last five. The sample for Bologna is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Genoa, meanwhile, have gone 26W 16D 14L across 56 games — 1.68 PPG, with D-L-D-W-D in their last five. The sample for Genoa is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bologna on 1.52 PPG, Genoa on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bologna have managed 14W 10D 4L from 28 games — 1.86 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Genoa's away record stands at 11W 6D 11L across 28 trips, a 1.39 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bologna come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Bologna are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Genoa are on 1.29 scored and 0.91 conceded.
Defensively: Genoa in 41% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 56 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bologna
Blended
Genoa
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bologna and Genoa in coming into this match?
Bologna have gone 22W 19D 15L in their last 56 games (1.52 PPG), while Genoa have gone 26W 16D 14L in their last 56 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bologna at home or Genoa away?
Bologna's home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bologna at home: 1.86 PPG; Genoa away: 1.39 PPG.
Have Bologna or Genoa been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bologna have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Genoa in 41%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 25 January 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Streaks & Records
Bologna's record when hosting Genoa specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
2
Bologna
3
Draws
3
Genoa
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bologna and Genoa?
From 8 meetings on record, Bologna have won 2, Genoa have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bologna and Genoa last play each other?
They last met on 25 January 2026, when Genoa 3-2 Bologna.
Who has won more matches between Bologna and Genoa?
Genoa have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bologna are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Genoa are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 32% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bologna 43%, Genoa 46% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 32% (Bologna) and 50% (Genoa).
On the defensive side: Bologna keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Genoa in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bologna home games / Genoa away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bologna play Genoa?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 43% of Bologna's recent matches and 46% of Genoa's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bologna vs Genoa usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 32% of Bologna's recent games and 50% of Genoa's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bologna and Genoa tend to score early?
Bologna have had a goal before half-time in 61% of their recent matches, Genoa in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bologna and Genoa share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Renato Dall'Ara, Regular Season - 19, as Bologna and Genoa drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bologna 1.55 xG and Genoa 0.54 xG, a combined 2.08. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bologna attack 1.04 / defence 0.65 against Genoa attack 0.80 / defence 1.10, drawn from 56/18 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bologna 62% | Draw 26% | Genoa 12%, with Bologna to win its most likely call at 62%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 62% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 33% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bologna 48%, Genoa 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bologna's trading profile (56 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did.
Genoa's trading profile (56 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 41% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bologna 1.52 PPG, Genoa 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.