Atalanta 2-1 Udinese – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 72% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Atalanta face Udinese.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
Atalanta welcome Udinese to Gewiss Stadium in Serie A (matchday 12). Kick-off is Sunday 10 November 2024 at 11:30 UK time.
Form Analysis
Looking at their last 10 matches, Atalanta stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. They are averaging 2.50 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Atalanta at home: 7W 1D 2L from their last 10 home games — 2.20 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.90 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across their last 10 games, Udinese have recorded 5W 0D 5L — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 1.50 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
On the road, Udinese have gone 3W 3D 4L in their last 10 away fixtures (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.90 PPG (Atalanta) versus 1.50 (Udinese). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 6 H2H matches, Atalanta have won 2, Udinese 0, with 4 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 6 H2H matches in our data have been high-scoring — 3.0 goals per game on average — which backs the Over 2.5 market from the head-to-head side. The most recent of those, on 27 Jan 2024, ended Atalanta 2–0 Udinese — a Atalanta win.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H signal is in the goals market — at 3.0 goals per game, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Atalanta trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; they lead at the break 49% of the time; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 71% of games (home games).
Udinese trading profile (last 49 games, 24 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 62% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 57%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 53% versus Udinese 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 67% | Udinese 39%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 2.99 xG and Udinese 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.772 / defence 1.024 | Udinese attack 0.938 / defence 1.212. League average goals — home 1.394 / away 1.319. Atalanta carry an above-average attack rating of 1.772 — their 2.99 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. Udinese's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Atalanta's projected output up. Data: built from Atalanta's last 49 games and Udinese's last 49.
Result probabilities: Atalanta 72% | Draw 15% | Udinese 13%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.38 | Draw 6.86 | Udinese 7.60. The model has a clear lean to Atalanta (72%) — a 57pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 80% | BTTS Yes probability 68% | Total xG 4.26. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 80% — a total xG of 4.26 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 68% — both xG figures (2.99 / 1.27) are high enough that each side is projected to find the net.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Atalanta are the pick at 72% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.26 combined xG gives a 80% probability to Over 2.5 — strong conviction, supported by recent form (Atalanta's last 10 home games and Udinese's last 10 away games) averaging 3.3 goals per game and the H2H data averaging 3.0 goals per game across 6 H2H matches.
Poisson assigns a 68% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: Atalanta 70% (last 10 home games) | Udinese 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Udinese | Competition: Serie A, matchday 12 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 10 November 2024 at 11:30 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 72% | Draw 15% | Udinese 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 80% (Under 20%) | BTTS Yes 68% (No 32%) | xG Atalanta 2.99 / Udinese 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.772 / def 1.024 | Udinese attack 0.938 / def 1.212 | league avg home 1.394 / away 1.319 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (72%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.99
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.27
Udinese xG
68%
BTTS
93%
Over 1.5
80%
Over 2.5
62%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Atalanta vs Udinese FAQs
What time does Atalanta vs Udinese kick off?
Atalanta vs Udinese kicked off at 11:30 UK time on Sunday 10 November 2024 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Udinese?
Atalanta 2 - 1 Udinese.
Where is Atalanta vs Udinese being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Udinese part of?
Atalanta vs Udinese is a Serie A fixture (matchday 12) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 72% chance of winning, Udinese a 13% chance, and a 15% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our model estimates a 68% probability that both Atalanta and Udinese will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Atalanta vs Udinese have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 80%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Atalanta's attack at 1.77x the league average against Udinese's defence at 1.21x — combine the two and it projects 2.99 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Udinese's attack versus Atalanta's defence, projects 1.27 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Atalanta's last 49 games and Udinese's last 49 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 2-1 carries the highest individual probability at 8.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 3-1 (8.0%), 2-0 (6.3%). Together the top three scorelines make up 22% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
72%
1.38
15%
6.86
13%
7.60
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.0%
Home win
Most likely
3 – 1
8.0%
Home win
2 – 0
6.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.99
Atalanta xG
Total xG
4.26
1.27
Udinese xG
1.38
72%
Home win
6.86
15%
Draw
7.60
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
93%
Over 1.5
1.08
7%
Under 1.5
14.29
80%
Over 2.5
1.25
20%
Under 2.5
5.00
62%
Over 3.5
1.61
38%
Under 3.5
2.63
42%
Over 4.5
2.38
58%
Under 4.5
1.72
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
68%
BTTS Yes
1.46
32%
BTTS No
3.15
Clean Sheet
28%
3.55
5%
19.97
Win to Nil
20%
4.92
1%
151.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.4 | 1.8 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 4.2 | 5.4 | 3.4 | 1.4 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 6.3 | 8.0 | 5.1 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 4 | 4.7 | 6.0 | 3.8 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 5 | 2.8 | 3.6 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Atalanta vs Udinese Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Udinese?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.0%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Udinese expected to score?
The model projects 2.99 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.27 for Udinese, a combined total of 4.26.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Udinese?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 72%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Atalanta's recent record stands at 28W 7D 14L from 49 games, a 1.86 PPG return, with W-W-W-W-W in the last five.
Udinese, meanwhile, have gone 11W 20D 18L across 49 games — 1.08 PPG, with W-L-W-L-L in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Atalanta by 0.78 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Udinese heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Atalanta have managed 17W 2D 5L from their last 24 home games — 2.21 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Udinese's away record stands at 6W 9D 9L across their last 24 away games, a 1.12 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Atalanta come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Atalanta are averaging 2.06 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Udinese are on 1.04 scored and 1.41 conceded.
Defensively: Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 49 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Udinese
Blended
Atalanta (Home) vs Udinese (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Atalanta
Blended
Udinese
Blended
❓ Atalanta vs Udinese Form FAQs
What form are Atalanta and Udinese in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 28W 7D 14L in their last 49 games (1.86 PPG), while Udinese have gone 11W 20D 18L in their last 49 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Udinese away?
Atalanta's home record (2.21 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 2.21 PPG; Udinese away: 1.12 PPG.
Have Atalanta or Udinese been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Udinese in 24%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 7 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 9 Jan 2022, when Atalanta won Udinese 2-6 Atalanta.
Atalanta's record when hosting Udinese specifically: 2W 3D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Atalanta
6
Draws
1
Udinese
Recent Meetings
❓ Atalanta vs Udinese H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Udinese?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Atalanta have won 3, Udinese have won 1, and 6 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Udinese last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 7 March 2026: Atalanta 2-2 Udinese.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Udinese?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 62% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 20% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Udinese are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 62% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 22% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 54%, Udinese 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 71% (Atalanta) and 33% (Udinese).
On the defensive side: Atalanta keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; Udinese in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Udinese away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Atalanta vs Udinese Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Atalanta and Udinese matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Atalanta's recent matches and 50% of Udinese's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Atalanta and Udinese matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 71% of Atalanta's recent games and 33% of Udinese's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Udinese matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 83% of Atalanta's recent matches and 62% of Udinese's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Udinese 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Udinese 2-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 12, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 2.99 xG and Udinese 1.27 xG, a combined 4.26. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Atalanta fell 1.0 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.77 / defence 1.02 against Udinese attack 0.94 / defence 1.21, drawn from 49/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 72% | Draw 15% | Udinese 13%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 72%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 80%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 93% and landed. Over 3.5 was 62% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 68% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 53% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 67%, Udinese 39%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (49 games, 24 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and conceded here.
Udinese's trading profile (49 games, 24 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.86 PPG against 1.08. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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