Atalanta 2-1 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Atalanta at 52%, yet other data sources diverge — this Atalanta vs Empoli fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Empoli make the trip to Gewiss Stadium to face Atalanta in Serie A, Regular Season - 27. The match kicks off on Friday 17 March 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Atalanta (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Serie A fixtures this term — 1.40 PPG. Last five: W L L D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, Atalanta have posted 4W 2D 4L at Gewiss Stadium — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Empoli have collected 1.00 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 2W 4D 4L. Last five: D D L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Empoli, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Empoli's form when playing away from home: 2W 4D 4L across 10 road games this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for Atalanta, 1.00 for Empoli — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Atalanta lead 2W to 1W over the last 3 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Oct 2022, ended 2–0 with Atalanta winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Atalanta — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at home): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 68% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
Empoli — key trading statistics (64 games, 31 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 58% versus Empoli 58%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 53% | Empoli 45%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.67 xG and Empoli 1.06 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 1.256 / defence 1.050 | Empoli attack 0.887 / defence 1.044. League average goals — home 1.272 / away 1.139. Atalanta carry an above-average attack strength of 1.256 — their λ of 1.67 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. Data: 64 Atalanta games / 64 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 52% | Draw 24% | Empoli 24%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 1.92 | Draw 4.17 | Empoli 4.17. Atalanta hold a narrow Poisson edge at 52% — the draw (24%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Atalanta at 52% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 24% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Atalanta if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates corroborate: Atalanta 60% | Empoli 50% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Gewiss Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 17 Mar 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 52% | Draw 24% | Empoli 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 53% | xG Atalanta 1.67 / Empoli 1.06 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 1.256 / def 1.050 | Empoli attack 0.887 / def 1.044 | league avg home 1.272 / away 1.139 • Poisson stance: Atalanta (52%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.67
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.06
Empoli xG
53%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs Empoli kick off?
Atalanta vs Empoli kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 17 March 2023 at Gewiss Stadium.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs Empoli?
Atalanta 2 - 1 Empoli.
Where is Atalanta vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Gewiss Stadium.
What competition is Atalanta vs Empoli part of?
Atalanta vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 52% chance of winning, Empoli a 24% chance, and a 24% chance of a draw — making Atalanta the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both Atalanta and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Empoli?
Record (3 meetings): Atalanta 2W | Draws 0 | Empoli 1W.
What form are Atalanta and Empoli in?
Atalanta (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-L-L-D-L. Empoli (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-D-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Atalanta's attack at 1.26x the league average against Empoli's defence at 1.04x — combine the two and it projects 1.67 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.89x) against Atalanta's defence (1.05x) — and the away total comes out at 1.06.
These ratings are built from 64/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.1% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (9.6%), 1-0 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Atalanta Win
52%
1.94
24%
4.11
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
11.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.9%
Home win
2 – 1
9.6%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.67
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.73
1.06
Empoli xG
1.94
52%
Home win
4.11
24%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.89
47%
BTTS No
2.13
Clean Sheet
35%
2.89
19%
5.30
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
5%
21.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.9 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.9 | 11.6 | 6.1 | 2.2 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.1 | 9.6 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.0 | 5.4 | 2.8 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 2.1 | 2.2 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.1%.
How many goals are Atalanta and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.67 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.06 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 52%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Atalanta come into this having played 64 games, going 28W 17D 19L for 1.58 points per game. Their last five reads W-L-L-D-L. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.08 PPG from 64 outings (16W 21D 27L), a run that reads D-D-L-L-L across their last five. The sample for Empoli is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Atalanta carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.50 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Atalanta's home form reads 9W 11D 11L across 31 games on their own ground, a 1.23 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 1.06 points per game from 31 outings (7W 12D 12L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Atalanta are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 1.22 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 1.14 scored and 1.62 conceded.
Last 64 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
Empoli
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and Empoli in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 28W 17D 19L in their last 64 games (1.58 PPG), while Empoli have gone 16W 21D 27L in their last 64 (1.08 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or Empoli away?
Atalanta's home record (1.23 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.23 PPG; Empoli away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since October 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 23 February 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Atalanta have taken the last 6 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Atalanta won 0-5 on 23 Feb 2025, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
7
Atalanta
0
Draws
1
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 7, Empoli have won 1, and 0 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 23 February 2025, when Empoli 0-5 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and Empoli?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 68%, Empoli 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Atalanta) and 36% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: Empoli in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play Empoli?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 68% of Atalanta's games and 52% of Empoli's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Atalanta vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 58% of Atalanta's recent games and 36% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and Empoli tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 68% of their recent matches, Empoli in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Atalanta edge out Empoli 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat Empoli 2-1 at Gewiss Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Serie A. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.67 xG and Empoli 1.06 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 1.26 / defence 1.05 against Empoli attack 0.89 / defence 1.04, drawn from 64/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 52% | Draw 24% | Empoli 24%, with Atalanta to win its most likely call at 52%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 53%, Empoli 45%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (64 games, 31 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Empoli's trading profile (64 games, 31 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Atalanta arrived the stronger side — 1.58 PPG against 1.08. The form guide was vindicated by the result.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.