Atalanta 1-0 AS Roma – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 35% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Atalanta vs AS Roma encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
New Balance Arena plays host to Atalanta versus AS Roma in Serie A, Regular Season - 18. Kick-off: Saturday 3 January 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
Atalanta's overall Serie A record this term: 3W 2D 5L from 10 games (1.10 PPG). Last five: W L W W L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Atalanta, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Atalanta's form when playing at home: 3W 4D 3L across 10 games at New Balance Arena this term (1.30 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
AS Roma have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 6W 0D 4L. Last five: L L W L W. Their scoring rate of 1.30 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for AS Roma, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Serie A this season, AS Roma have posted 6W 0D 4L from 10 away outings — 1.80 PPG. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
On a straight form reading, AS Roma are the stronger side — 0.70 PPG clear of the hosts (1.80 vs 1.10). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Head-to-Head
Across 8 previous meetings, Atalanta are the stronger side on paper — 5 victories to 2, with 1 draws in between.
The 8 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 12 May 2025, ended 2–1 with Atalanta winning.
The historical record gives Atalanta a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 8 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.
Trading
Atalanta half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at home): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; BTTS occurs in 63% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
AS Roma half-time and goal-timing data (55 games, 27 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Atalanta 53% versus AS Roma 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Atalanta 49% | AS Roma 36%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Atalanta 1.00 xG and AS Roma 1.02 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Atalanta attack 0.965 / defence 0.952 | AS Roma attack 0.974 / defence 0.868. League average goals — home 1.200 / away 1.100. Data: 55 Atalanta games / 55 AS Roma games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Atalanta 34% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 35%. Fair-value odds: Atalanta 2.94 | Draw 3.23 | AS Roma 2.86. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 33% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.02. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 67% probability — total xG of 2.02 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
Atalanta dominate the H2H record, yet AS Roma are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
The Poisson model's primary lean is AS Roma at 35% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.02 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 33% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: Atalanta 60% | AS Roma 40%.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Atalanta vs AS Roma | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 18 | Venue: New Balance Arena • Kick-off: Saturday 3 Jan 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Atalanta 34% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 35% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 33% | BTTS 41% | xG Atalanta 1.00 / AS Roma 1.02 • Poisson strength factors: Atalanta attack 0.965 / def 0.952 | AS Roma attack 0.974 / def 0.868 | league avg home 1.200 / away 1.100 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (35%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.00
Atalanta xG
Expected Goals
1.02
AS Roma xG
41%
BTTS
60%
Over 1.5
33%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Atalanta vs AS Roma kick off?
Atalanta vs AS Roma kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 3 January 2026 at New Balance Arena.
What was the final score in Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Atalanta 1 - 0 AS Roma.
Where is Atalanta vs AS Roma being played?
The match is being played at New Balance Arena.
What competition is Atalanta vs AS Roma part of?
Atalanta vs AS Roma is a Regular Season - 18 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Our statistical model gives Atalanta a 34% chance of winning, AS Roma a 35% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Atalanta and AS Roma will score (BTTS).
Will Atalanta vs AS Roma have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 33%.
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and AS Roma?
Record (8 meetings): Atalanta 5W | Draws 1 | AS Roma 2W.
What form are Atalanta and AS Roma in?
Atalanta (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. AS Roma (all comps): 6W-0D-4L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-L-W-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Atalanta's attacking strength (0.96x league average) is weighed against AS Roma's defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.00. Flip it around — AS Roma's attack (0.97x) against Atalanta's defence (0.95x) — and the away total comes out at 1.02.
These ratings are built from 55/55 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (15.0%), 0-1 (11.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 42% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
34%
2.92
31%
3.27
35%
2.85
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.5%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.00
Atalanta xG
Total xG
2.02
1.02
AS Roma xG
2.92
34%
Home win
3.27
31%
Draw
2.85
35%
Away win
Goals Markets
60%
Over 1.5
1.67
40%
Under 1.5
2.50
33%
Over 2.5
3.03
67%
Under 2.5
1.49
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
5%
Over 4.5
20.00
95%
Under 4.5
1.05
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.47
59%
BTTS No
1.68
Clean Sheet
36%
2.77
37%
2.73
Win to Nil
12%
8.09
13%
7.78
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 13.2 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.5 | 6.9 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 6.8 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.2 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are Atalanta and AS Roma expected to score?
The model projects 1.00 expected goals for Atalanta and 1.02 for AS Roma, a combined total of 2.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Atalanta vs AS Roma?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 35%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 55 outings, Atalanta have picked up 1.75 PPG on a 27W 15D 13L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Atalanta is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AS Roma's form line: 31W 9D 15L from 55 games, 1.85 PPG, last five L-L-W-L-W. The sample for AS Roma is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.75 PPG for Atalanta against 1.85 for AS Roma. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Atalanta have posted 1.56 PPG from 27 outings (11W 9D 7L).
On the road, AS Roma have gone 12W 7D 8L from 27 away games — 1.59 PPG when travelling.
Attack vs Defence
Atalanta are averaging 1.78 goals scored and 1.02 conceded per game recently; AS Roma are on 1.38 scored and 0.84 conceded.
Defensively: AS Roma in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 55 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Atalanta
Blended
AS Roma
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Atalanta and AS Roma in coming into this match?
Atalanta have gone 27W 15D 13L in their last 55 games (1.75 PPG), while AS Roma have gone 31W 9D 15L in their last 55 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Atalanta at home or AS Roma away?
AS Roma's away record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Atalanta at home: 1.56 PPG; AS Roma away: 1.59 PPG.
Have Atalanta or AS Roma been keeping clean sheets recently?
Atalanta have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, AS Roma in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 10 times that we have on record, stretching back to December 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 4 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. They last met on 18 April 2026, roughly 4 months ago.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 1-4 on 18 Dec 2021, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Atalanta have gone 4W 0D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AS Roma — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Atalanta
2
Draws
2
AS Roma
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Atalanta and AS Roma?
From 10 meetings on record, Atalanta have won 6, AS Roma have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Atalanta and AS Roma last play each other?
They last met on 18 April 2026, when AS Roma 1-1 Atalanta.
Who has won more matches between Atalanta and AS Roma?
Atalanta have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Atalanta are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
AS Roma see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Atalanta 63%, AS Roma 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Atalanta) and 30% (AS Roma).
On the defensive side: AS Roma in 41%; Atalanta have failed to score in 26% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Atalanta home games / AS Roma away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Atalanta play AS Roma?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 63% of Atalanta's recent matches and 44% of AS Roma's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Atalanta vs AS Roma usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Atalanta's recent games and 30% of AS Roma's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Atalanta and AS Roma tend to score early?
Atalanta have had a goal before half-time in 70% of their recent matches, AS Roma in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Atalanta defy the odds to beat AS Roma 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Atalanta beat AS Roma 1-0 at New Balance Arena, Regular Season - 18, in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Atalanta 1.00 xG and AS Roma 1.02 xG, a combined 2.02. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. AS Roma landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Atalanta attack 0.96 / defence 0.95 against AS Roma attack 0.97 / defence 0.87, drawn from 55/55 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Atalanta 34% | Draw 31% | AS Roma 35%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 35%. The actual Atalanta win had been the model's second-ranked read at 34%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 33%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 60% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Atalanta 49%, AS Roma 36%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Atalanta's trading profile (55 games, 27 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
AS Roma's trading profile (55 games, 27 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Atalanta 1.75 PPG, AS Roma 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Atalanta win broke the near-deadlock. Atalanta (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.15 average — tighter than their form line. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.04 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.