AS Roma 1-1 Juventus – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 54% — recent form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Juventus encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
Juventus travel to Stadio Olimpico to take on AS Roma in Serie A (matchday 31). The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 April 2025 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, AS Roma have gone 9W 1D 0L — a 2.80 PPG return. Last five: W W W W W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.40 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.40 per game is an exceptional defensive record. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.
AS Roma's home record over their last 10 home games: 7W 1D 2L (2.20 PPG). They are averaging 2.40 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from their last 10 home games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 2.20 lags behind their overall 2.80 — home advantage has not translated into better results recently.
Juventus — last 10 games: 7W 0D 3L — 2.10 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Juventus away from home: 4W 4D 2L from their last 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
AS Roma are in the better shape of the two on recent form — 0.70 PPG ahead (2.80 vs 2.10). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides in our head-to-head data. From 7 H2H matches, AS Roma have won 1, Juventus 3, with 3 draws — a balanced record that offers no clear steer on its own.
The 7 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 1 Sep 2024, ended AS Roma 0–0 Juventus — a draw.
The head-to-head data offers no strong steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the model and current market pricing should carry more weight for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
AS Roma in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 76% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; of the 18 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 39%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 54% of games (home games).
Juventus in-play and half-time data (last 68 games, 33 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 70% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 62%; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 56% versus Juventus 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 53% | Juventus 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.73 xG and Juventus 0.95 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.374 / defence 0.798 | Juventus attack 1.027 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 1.163. AS Roma carry an above-average attack rating of 1.374 — their 1.73 xG reflects attacking quality above the league norm. AS Roma have a tight defence (rating 0.798), which is pulling Juventus's projected output down. Data: built from AS Roma's last 68 games and Juventus's last 68.
Result probabilities: AS Roma 54% | Draw 26% | Juventus 19%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 1.84 | Draw 3.82 | Juventus 5.15. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 54% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates AS Roma as the most likely outcome at 54% — moderate model lean. Recent form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AS Roma offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (AS Roma's last 10 home games and Juventus's last 10 away games) averaging 2.7 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: AS Roma 50% (last 10 home games) | Juventus 60% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Juventus | Competition: Serie A, matchday 31 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 6 April 2025 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 54% | Draw 26% | Juventus 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% (Under 50%) | BTTS Yes 52% (No 48%) | xG AS Roma 1.73 / Juventus 0.95 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.374 / def 0.798 | Juventus attack 1.027 / def 0.987 | league avg home 1.276 / away 1.163 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (54%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.73
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
0.95
Juventus xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ AS Roma vs Juventus FAQs
What time does AS Roma vs Juventus kick off?
AS Roma vs Juventus kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Sunday 6 April 2025 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Juventus?
AS Roma 1 - 1 Juventus.
Where is AS Roma vs Juventus being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Juventus part of?
AS Roma vs Juventus is a Serie A fixture (matchday 31) (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Juventus?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 54% chance of winning, Juventus a 19% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Juventus?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AS Roma and Juventus will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will AS Roma vs Juventus have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50% — effectively a coin flip.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates AS Roma's attack at 1.37x the league average against Juventus's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.73 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Juventus's attack versus AS Roma's defence, projects 0.95 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from AS Roma's last 68 games and Juventus's last 68 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 12.7% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (10.4%), 2-0 (10.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
54%
1.84
26%
3.82
19%
5.15
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.8%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.73
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.68
0.95
Juventus xG
1.84
54%
Home win
3.82
26%
Draw
5.15
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.08
Clean Sheet
39%
2.59
18%
5.64
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
3%
29.08
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.8 | 6.5 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.8 | 11.3 | 5.4 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.2 | 9.7 | 4.6 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.6 | 2.7 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.4 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ AS Roma vs Juventus Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Juventus?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.7%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Juventus expected to score?
The model projects 1.73 expected goals for AS Roma and 0.95 for Juventus, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Juventus?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 54%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 68 outings, AS Roma have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 33W 16D 19L record — W-W-W-W-W across the most recent five.
Juventus's form line: 33W 27D 8L from 68 games, 1.85 PPG, last five W-W-L-L-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: AS Roma on 1.69 PPG, Juventus on 1.85. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, AS Roma have posted 2.12 PPG from their last 33 home games (22W 4D 7L). That's noticeably better than their 1.69 PPG overall — AS Roma are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Juventus have gone 14W 13D 6L from their last 33 away games — 1.67 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
AS Roma are averaging 1.62 goals scored and 1.12 conceded per game recently; Juventus are on 1.47 scored and 0.87 conceded.
Defensively: Juventus in 47% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
AS Roma (Home) vs Juventus (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
AS Roma
Current Season
Juventus
Current Season
❓ AS Roma vs Juventus Form FAQs
What form are AS Roma and Juventus in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 33W 16D 19L in their last 68 games (1.69 PPG), while Juventus have gone 33W 27D 8L in their last 68 (1.85 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Juventus away?
AS Roma's home record (2.12 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 2.12 PPG; Juventus away: 1.67 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Juventus been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Juventus in 47%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 4 years from October 2021. All of them came in Serie A. The most recent was on 1 March 2026, roughly 8 months ago.
Streaks & Records
AS Roma's record when hosting Juventus specifically: 1W 3D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
1
AS Roma
5
Draws
4
Juventus
Recent Meetings
❓ AS Roma vs Juventus H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Juventus?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, AS Roma have won 1, Juventus have won 4, and 5 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Juventus last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 1 March 2026: AS Roma 3-3 Juventus.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Juventus?
Juventus have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 39% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Juventus are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 18% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 50% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 52%, Juventus 52% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 54% (AS Roma) and 52% (Juventus).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Juventus in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Juventus away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ AS Roma vs Juventus Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in AS Roma and Juventus matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of AS Roma's recent matches and 52% of Juventus's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are AS Roma and Juventus matches usually high-scoring?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 54% of AS Roma's recent games and 52% of Juventus's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Juventus matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 76% of AS Roma's recent matches and 70% of Juventus's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
AS Roma and Juventus share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 31, as AS Roma and Juventus drew 1-1 in the Serie A. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.73 xG and Juventus 0.95 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.37 / defence 0.80 against Juventus attack 1.03 / defence 0.99, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 54% | Draw 26% | Juventus 19%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 54%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 48% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 53%, Juventus 43%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Juventus's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 47% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — AS Roma 1.69 PPG, Juventus 1.85 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. AS Roma (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 2.03 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.
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