AS Roma 7-0 Empoli – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates AS Roma at 46% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this AS Roma vs Empoli encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
AS Roma and Empoli meet at Stadio Olimpico in Serie A, Regular Season - 4. This fixture gets under way on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Current Form
AS Roma's overall Serie A record this term: 1W 5D 4L from 10 games (0.80 PPG). Last five: L W D L L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. AS Roma have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
AS Roma's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Olimpico this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — AS Roma are significantly better at Stadio Olimpico than their overall form suggests.
Empoli have collected 1.10 PPG across 10 Serie A outings this season: 3W 2D 5L. Last five: D L L L L. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.40 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. Empoli have played only a handful of Serie A games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
On the road, Empoli have gone 0W 4D 6L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.10 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.80 PPG for AS Roma against 1.10 for Empoli. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — AS Roma have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Empoli in 60%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record favours AS Roma, who have won 4 of the last 4 meetings against Empoli — a 0D 0W return for the visitors.
These two sides have produced goals at a consistent rate historically, averaging 3.2 per game across 4 meetings. That scoring profile provides genuine support for the Over 2.5 angle. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 2–0 with AS Roma winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both AS Roma and goals. The home side's 4 wins from 4 meetings, combined with an average of 3.2 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
Trading & In-Play
AS Roma — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 45% of games (home games).
Empoli — key trading statistics (41 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 70% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; BTTS occurs in 55% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 30% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — AS Roma 51% versus Empoli 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (AS Roma 46% | Empoli 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects AS Roma 1.49 xG and Empoli 1.08 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: AS Roma attack 1.006 / defence 1.119 | Empoli attack 0.815 / defence 1.017. League average goals — home 1.453 / away 1.184. Data: 41 AS Roma games / 41 Empoli games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: AS Roma 46% | Draw 27% | Empoli 27%. Fair-value odds: AS Roma 2.17 | Draw 3.70 | Empoli 3.70. AS Roma hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.57. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.57 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, AS Roma are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on AS Roma if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.57 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.2 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: AS Roma 60% | Empoli 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: AS Roma vs Empoli | Competition: Serie A, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Olimpico • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: AS Roma 46% | Draw 27% | Empoli 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 52% | xG AS Roma 1.49 / Empoli 1.08 • Poisson strength factors: AS Roma attack 1.006 / def 1.119 | Empoli attack 0.815 / def 1.017 | league avg home 1.453 / away 1.184 • Poisson stance: AS Roma (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.49
AS Roma xG
Expected Goals
1.08
Empoli xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
26%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does AS Roma vs Empoli kick off?
AS Roma vs Empoli kicked off at 19:45 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Stadio Olimpico.
What was the final score in AS Roma vs Empoli?
AS Roma 7 - 0 Empoli.
Where is AS Roma vs Empoli being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Olimpico.
What competition is AS Roma vs Empoli part of?
AS Roma vs Empoli is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Serie A (Italy).
Who is favourite to win AS Roma vs Empoli?
Our statistical model gives AS Roma a 46% chance of winning, Empoli a 27% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making AS Roma the favourite.
Will both teams score in AS Roma vs Empoli?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both AS Roma and Empoli will score (BTTS).
Will AS Roma vs Empoli have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Empoli?
Record (4 meetings): AS Roma 4W | Draws 0 | Empoli 0W.
What form are AS Roma and Empoli in?
AS Roma (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-W-D-L-L. Empoli (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.40 | L5 D-L-L-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Working from AS Roma's attack rating (1.01) and Empoli's defence rating (1.02), the model arrives at 1.49 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Empoli's attack (0.81x) against AS Roma's defence (1.12x) — and the away total comes out at 1.08.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AS Roma Win
46%
2.18
27%
3.66
27%
3.72
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.4%
Home win
2 – 1
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.49
AS Roma xG
Total xG
2.57
1.08
Empoli xG
2.18
46%
Home win
3.66
27%
Draw
3.72
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
73%
Over 1.5
1.37
27%
Under 1.5
3.70
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
26%
Over 3.5
3.85
74%
Under 3.5
1.35
12%
Over 4.5
8.33
88%
Under 4.5
1.14
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.93
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
34%
2.94
23%
4.42
Win to Nil
16%
6.42
6%
16.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.7 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.4 | 12.3 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.5 | 9.2 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.2 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.7 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for AS Roma vs Empoli?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are AS Roma and Empoli expected to score?
The model projects 1.49 expected goals for AS Roma and 1.08 for Empoli, a combined total of 2.57.
How confident is the prediction model for AS Roma vs Empoli?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
AS Roma come into this having played 41 games, going 18W 10D 13L for 1.56 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-L-L. It's still early in the season for AS Roma, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, Empoli sit at 1.05 PPG from 41 outings (10W 13D 18L), a run that reads D-L-L-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for Empoli, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
AS Roma carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Empoli — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
How They Fare by Venue
AS Roma's home form reads 10W 4D 6L across 20 games on their own ground, a 1.70 PPG return.
Away from home, Empoli have taken 0.75 points per game from 20 outings (2W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AS Roma come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
AS Roma are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.07 conceded per game recently; Empoli are on 0.90 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Last 41 Results — Serie A
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
AS Roma
Early Season
Empoli
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are AS Roma and Empoli in coming into this match?
AS Roma have gone 18W 10D 13L in their last 41 games (1.56 PPG), while Empoli have gone 10W 13D 18L in their last 41 (1.05 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — AS Roma at home or Empoli away?
AS Roma's home record (1.70 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — AS Roma at home: 1.70 PPG; Empoli away: 0.75 PPG.
Have AS Roma or Empoli been keeping clean sheets recently?
AS Roma have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Empoli in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to October 2021 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 3 years. Every recorded meeting has come in Serie A. It has been a while since the last meeting — 9 March 2025, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AS Roma won 7-0 on 17 Sep 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, AS Roma have gone 3W 0D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Empoli — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
AS Roma
0
Draws
2
Empoli
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between AS Roma and Empoli?
From 8 meetings on record, AS Roma have won 6, Empoli have won 2, and 0 have been drawn.
When did AS Roma and Empoli last play each other?
They last met on 9 March 2025, when Empoli 0-1 AS Roma.
Who has won more matches between AS Roma and Empoli?
AS Roma have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
AS Roma are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time.
Empoli are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 70% of their matches.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — AS Roma 40%, Empoli 55% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 45% (AS Roma) and 30% (Empoli).
On the defensive side: AS Roma keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Empoli in 35%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = AS Roma home games / Empoli away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when AS Roma play Empoli?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of AS Roma's recent matches and 55% of Empoli's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is AS Roma vs Empoli usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 45% of AS Roma's recent games and 30% of Empoli's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do AS Roma and Empoli tend to score early?
AS Roma have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Empoli in 70% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant AS Roma run riot with a 7-0 hammering of Empoli.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AS Roma beat Empoli 7-0 at Stadio Olimpico, Regular Season - 4, in the Serie A. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting AS Roma 1.49 xG and Empoli 1.08 xG, a combined 2.57. The scoreboard read 7-0 for 7 actual goals. AS Roma beat their projection by 5.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Empoli landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of AS Roma attack 1.01 / defence 1.12 against Empoli attack 0.81 / defence 1.02, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it AS Roma 46% | Draw 27% | Empoli 27%, with AS Roma to win its most likely call at 46%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 7, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. Over 3.5 was 26% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (AS Roma 46%, Empoli 34%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
AS Roma's trading profile (41 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and duly kept one.
Empoli's trading profile (41 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 37% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, AS Roma arrived the stronger side — 1.56 PPG against 1.05. Form held, and they took the win. AS Roma (home/away splits) scored 7 against a 1.50 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 0 against a 0.95 average — tighter than their form line. Empoli (home/away splits) shipped 7 against a 1.40 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.