Waterford 2-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Waterford at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Waterford vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Waterford host Derry City at Regional Sports Centre in Premier Division, Regular Season - 30. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 14 September 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Waterford — All Games: 5W 4D 1L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.90 points per game. Last five: W W D W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Regional Sports Centre, Waterford have gone 4W 5D 1L this season (10 games, 1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have recorded 4W 3D 3L from 10 outings — 1.50 PPG. Last five: D W L D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Derry City have gone 2W 4D 4L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.00 PPG). Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 1.00 is notably below their overall 1.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Waterford at 1.90 PPG versus Derry City's 1.50. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 9 previous encounters have yielded 3 wins for Waterford, 5 for Derry City and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 9 meetings have averaged 4.2 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Jul 2026, ended 4–2 with Waterford winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.2 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Waterford in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 88% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
Derry City in-play tendencies (66 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Waterford 58% versus Derry City 59%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Waterford 52% | Derry City 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Waterford 1.55 xG and Derry City 1.13 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Waterford attack 1.019 / defence 0.895 | Derry City attack 0.999 / defence 1.056. League average goals — home 1.439 / away 1.265. Data: 66 Waterford games / 66 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Waterford 43% | Draw 32% | Derry City 24%. Fair-value odds: Waterford 2.33 | Draw 3.12 | Derry City 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 57% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 57% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Waterford are the pick at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Waterford offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.68 total expected goals, pointing to Over 2.5 at 50% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 4.2 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 57%. Form rates corroborate: Waterford 70% | Derry City 80% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Waterford vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 30 | Venue: Regional Sports Centre • Kick-off: Monday 14 Sep 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Waterford 43% | Draw 32% | Derry City 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 57% | xG Waterford 1.55 / Derry City 1.13 • Poisson strength factors: Waterford attack 1.019 / def 0.895 | Derry City attack 0.999 / def 1.056 | league avg home 1.439 / away 1.265 • Poisson stance: Waterford (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.55
Waterford xG
Expected Goals
1.13
Derry City xG
57%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Waterford vs Derry City kick off?
Waterford vs Derry City kicked off at 18:45 on Monday 14 September 2026 at Regional Sports Centre.
What was the final score in Waterford vs Derry City?
Waterford 2 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Waterford vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Regional Sports Centre.
What competition is Waterford vs Derry City part of?
Waterford vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 30 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Waterford vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Waterford a 43% chance of winning, Derry City a 24% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Waterford the favourite.
Will both teams score in Waterford vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 57% probability that both Waterford and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Waterford vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Derry City?
Record (9 meetings): Waterford 3W | Draws 1 | Derry City 5W.
What form are Waterford and Derry City in?
Waterford (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-W-D. Derry City (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.70 | L5 D-W-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Waterford's attacking strength (1.02x league average) is weighed against Derry City's defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.55. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Waterford's defence, projects 1.13 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 66/66 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.6%. Close behind: 2-1 (9.3%), 1-0 (9.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Waterford Win
43%
2.31
32%
3.08
24%
4.14
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
10.6%
Home win
2 – 1
9.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.55
Waterford xG
Total xG
2.68
1.13
Derry City xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.08
32%
Draw
4.14
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
57%
BTTS Yes
1.76
43%
BTTS No
2.32
Clean Sheet
32%
3.10
21%
4.71
Win to Nil
14%
7.14
5%
19.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 7.8 | 4.4 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 10.6 | 12.0 | 6.8 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 9.3 | 5.3 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 4.8 | 2.7 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Waterford vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.6%.
How many goals are Waterford and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.55 expected goals for Waterford and 1.13 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Waterford vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Waterford come into this having played 66 games, going 18W 18D 30L for 1.09 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-D-W-D.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 1.52 PPG from 66 outings (26W 22D 18L), a run that reads D-W-L-D-W across their last five.
Derry City carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.43 PPG clear of Waterford — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home Ground vs the Road
Waterford's home form reads 10W 11D 12L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.24 PPG return.
Away from home, Derry City have taken 1.30 points per game from 33 outings (11W 10D 12L).
The Goals Picture
Waterford are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.64 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.42 scored and 1.20 conceded.
Last 66 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Waterford
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Waterford and Derry City in coming into this match?
Waterford have gone 18W 18D 30L in their last 66 games (1.09 PPG), while Derry City have gone 26W 22D 18L in their last 66 (1.52 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Waterford at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.30 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Waterford at home: 1.24 PPG; Derry City away: 1.30 PPG.
Have Waterford or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Waterford have kept a clean sheet in 17% of their recent games, Derry City in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Waterford and Derry City runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 14 September 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 4 Jul 2025, when Derry City won 7-2 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Waterford's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 1W 2D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Waterford
2
Draws
5
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Waterford and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Waterford have won 3, Derry City have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Waterford and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 14 September 2026, when Waterford 2-2 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Waterford and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 88% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 15% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Waterford 61%, Derry City 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (Waterford) and 42% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Derry City in 27%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Waterford home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Waterford play Derry City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 61% of Waterford's games and 58% of Derry City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Waterford vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of Waterford's recent games and 42% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Waterford and Derry City tend to score early?
Waterford have had a goal before half-time in 88% of their recent matches, Derry City in 76% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Waterford and Derry City share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Regional Sports Centre, Regular Season - 30, as Waterford and Derry City drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Waterford 1.55 xG and Derry City 1.13 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Derry City outscored their 1.13 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Waterford attack 1.02 / defence 0.90 against Derry City attack 1.00 / defence 1.06, drawn from 66/66 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Waterford 43% | Draw 32% | Derry City 24%, with Waterford to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 57% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Waterford 52%, Derry City 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Waterford's trading profile (66 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 58% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (66 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 59% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Derry City arrived the stronger side — 1.52 PPG against 1.09. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Derry City (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.