UCD 2-1 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as UCD face Finn Harps.

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Fixture Analysis

UCD welcome Finn Harps to UCD Bowl in Premier Division (matchday 27). Kick-off is Friday 12 August 2022 at 20:45 UK time.

Form Guide

UCD — last 10 games: 1W 2D 7L, averaging 0.50 points per game. Last five: L L W L D. They are averaging 0.60 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

UCD at home: 0W 3D 7L from their last 10 home games — 0.30 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.90 conceded per game.

Across their last 10 games, Finn Harps have recorded 1W 2D 7L — 0.50 PPG. Last five: L L L L W. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 2.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.00 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings (10%).

Finn Harps's form when playing away from home: 1W 2D 7L across their last 10 road games (0.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 2.40 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.

The form comparison is too close to call — 0.50 PPG (UCD) versus 0.50 (Finn Harps). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 2 H2H matches we hold have produced 1 wins for UCD, 0 for Finn Harps and 1 draw. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 2 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 2 H2H matches in our data, averaging 0.5 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 13 May 2022, ended UCD 1–0 Finn Harps — a UCD win.

With a balanced win record and just 0.5 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

Trading Patterns

UCD in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 12 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 33% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 82% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 64% of those occasions; of the 12 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 25%; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (home games); they fail to score in 50% of games.

Finn Harps in-play and half-time data (last 26 games, 12 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 83% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; of the 6 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 50%; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 83% of games (away games); they fail to score in 42% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — UCD 42% versus Finn Harps 42%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (UCD 46% | Finn Harps 65%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 1.16 xG and Finn Harps 1.36 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.606 / defence 1.405 | Finn Harps attack 0.896 / defence 1.485. League average goals — home 1.289 / away 1.083. UCD's attack rating of 0.606 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.485 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing UCD's projected output up. UCD's defence rating of 1.405 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Finn Harps's projected output up. Data: built from UCD's last 25 games and Finn Harps's last 61.

Result probabilities: UCD 31% | Draw 28% | Finn Harps 41%. Fair-value odds: UCD 3.20 | Draw 3.59 | Finn Harps 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 52% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Analysis Verdict

On the Poisson output, Finn Harps are the pick at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Finn Harps offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 54% — low conviction — though recent form (UCD's last 10 home games and Finn Harps's last 10 away games) averaging 3.0 goals per game points the other way.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate — both teams scored in: UCD 50% (last 10 home games) | Finn Harps 60% (last 10 away games).

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