UCD 2-2 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Dundalk at 40%, yet in-form UCD provide a compelling counter-argument — this UCD vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to UCD Bowl to face UCD in Premier Division, Regular Season - 14. The match kicks off on Friday 6 May 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
UCD have collected 3.00 PPG across 1 Premier Division outings this season: 1W 0D 0L. Last five: W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Both teams have scored in 100% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. UCD have played only a handful of Premier Division games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Dundalk (all games): 6W 2D 2L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 2.00 points per game. Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
On the road, Dundalk have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The points-per-game gap of 1.00 in UCD's favour (3.00 vs 2.00) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
Head-to-Head
Form and model data should carry more weight here — the historical record is too balanced to provide a directional steer. From 1 meetings: UCD 0W, Dundalk 1W, 0D.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 1 Apr 2022, ended 0–2 with Dundalk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects UCD 0.60 xG and Dundalk 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: UCD attack 0.570 / defence 1.095 | Dundalk attack 0.674 / defence 0.837. League average goals — home 1.257 / away 1.225. UCD's attack strength of 0.570 is below the league average — the 0.60 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 13 UCD games / 49 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: UCD 22% | Draw 38% | Dundalk 40%. Fair-value odds: UCD 4.55 | Draw 2.63 | Dundalk 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 38% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 19% | BTTS probability 28% | Total xG 1.50. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 81% probability — total xG of 1.50 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 72% — UCD's lower xG of 0.60 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 28%.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Dundalk as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form UCD (3.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 38% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Dundalk if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 1.50 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 19% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: UCD vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 14 | Venue: UCD Bowl • Kick-off: Friday 6 May 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: UCD 22% | Draw 38% | Dundalk 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 19% | BTTS 28% | xG UCD 0.60 / Dundalk 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: UCD attack 0.570 / def 1.095 | Dundalk attack 0.674 / def 0.837 | league avg home 1.257 / away 1.225 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.60
UCD xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Dundalk xG
28%
BTTS
45%
Over 1.5
19%
Over 2.5
7%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does UCD vs Dundalk kick off?
UCD vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 6 May 2022 at UCD Bowl.
What was the final score in UCD vs Dundalk?
UCD 2 - 2 Dundalk.
Where is UCD vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at UCD Bowl.
What competition is UCD vs Dundalk part of?
UCD vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 14 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win UCD vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives UCD a 22% chance of winning, Dundalk a 40% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in UCD vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 28% probability that both UCD and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will UCD vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 19%.
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Dundalk?
Record (1 meetings): UCD 0W | Draws 0 | Dundalk 1W.
What form are UCD and Dundalk in?
UCD (all comps): 1W-0D-0L in 1 | 3.00 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 W. Dundalk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
The model rates UCD's attack at 0.57x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 0.84x — combine the two and it projects 0.60 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (0.67x) against UCD's defence (1.09x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 13/49 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 0-0 carries the highest individual probability at 23.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-1 (18.5%), 1-1 (13.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 56% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
22%
4.50
38%
2.64
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 0
22.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
20.1%
Away win
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.60
UCD xG
Total xG
1.50
0.90
Dundalk xG
4.50
22%
Home win
2.64
38%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
44%
Over 1.5
2.27
56%
Under 1.5
1.79
19%
Over 2.5
5.26
81%
Under 2.5
1.23
7%
Over 3.5
14.29
93%
Under 3.5
1.08
2%
Over 4.5
50.00
98%
Under 4.5
1.02
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
28%
BTTS Yes
3.61
72%
BTTS No
1.38
Clean Sheet
40%
2.47
55%
1.82
Win to Nil
9%
11.12
22%
4.55
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 22.2 | 20.1 | 9.1 | 2.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 12.0 | 5.4 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 3.6 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 4 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for UCD vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 23.8%.
How many goals are UCD and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 0.60 expected goals for UCD and 0.90 for Dundalk, a combined total of 1.50.
How confident is the prediction model for UCD vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
UCD's recent record stands at 1W 0D 0L from 1 games, a 3.00 PPG return, with W in the last five. It's still early in the season for UCD, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Dundalk, meanwhile, have gone 0W 0D 1L across 1 games — 0.00 PPG, with L in their last five. It's still early in the season for Dundalk, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
The points-per-game comparison favours UCD by 3.00 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
Attack vs Defence
UCD are averaging 2.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.00 scored and 2.00 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: UCD have seen both teams score in 100% of their recent games; Dundalk in 100%.
Last 1 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
UCD
Early Season
Dundalk
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are UCD and Dundalk in coming into this match?
UCD have gone 1W 0D 0L in their last 1 games (3.00 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 0W 0D 1L in their last 1 (0.00 PPG).
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
These sides have met 8 times that we have on record, stretching back to April 2022 — a rivalry that has played out across roughly 1 year. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 3 November 2023, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Dundalk have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Dundalk won 1-5 on 3 Nov 2023, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, UCD have gone 1W 1D 2L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
1
UCD
2
Draws
5
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between UCD and Dundalk?
From 8 meetings on record, UCD have won 1, Dundalk have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did UCD and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 3 November 2023, when UCD 1-5 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between UCD and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = UCD home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when UCD play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 100% of UCD's games and 100% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is UCD vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 100% of UCD's matches and 100% of Dundalk's.
Do UCD and Dundalk tend to score early?
UCD have had a goal before half-time in 100% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 100% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
UCD and Dundalk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at UCD Bowl, Regular Season - 14, as UCD and Dundalk drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting UCD 0.60 xG and Dundalk 0.90 xG, a combined 1.50. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. UCD beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Dundalk outscored their 0.90 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of UCD attack 0.57 / defence 1.09 against Dundalk attack 0.67 / defence 0.84, drawn from 13/49 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it UCD 22% | Draw 38% | Dundalk 40%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 38%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 19%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 45% and landed. Over 3.5 was 7% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 28% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 100% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (UCD 100%, Dundalk 100%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 100%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Form vs Result
On form, UCD arrived the stronger side — 3.00 PPG against 0.00. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. UCD shipped 2 against a 1.00 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Dundalk scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.