St Patrick's Athl. 4-1 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. at 60% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 9 as St Patrick's Athl. welcome Sligo Rovers to Richmond Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 3 April 2026 at 18:45 UTC.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.70 points per game. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
At home at Richmond Park, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 5D 2L this season (10 games, 1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Sligo Rovers stand at 4W 3D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.50 PPG. Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 4W 1D 5L across 10 road games this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
The form comparison is too close to call — 1.70 PPG (St Patrick's Athl.) versus 1.50 (Sligo Rovers). When the figures are this level, no pick can be reliably derived from recent results alone.
H2H
The fixture history tells a clear story: St Patrick's Athl. have dominated this rivalry, winning 5 of 7 past contests while Sligo Rovers have managed just 2 wins.
The 7 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 2.9 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 27 Sep 2025, ended 0–1 with Sligo Rovers winning.
From a betting standpoint, the H2H backs both St Patrick's Athl. and goals. The home side's 5 wins from 7 meetings, combined with an average of 2.9 goals per game, gives the home win and Over 2.5 combination a historically grounded case.
In-Play Profile
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Sligo Rovers in-play tendencies (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 47% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 64% of games (away games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 43% versus Sligo Rovers 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Sligo Rovers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.52 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.54 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.263 / defence 0.730 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.734 / defence 0.909. League average goals — home 1.325 / away 1.013. St Patrick's Athl. carry an above-average attack strength of 1.263 — their λ of 1.52 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.730 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 44 St Patrick's Athl. games / 44 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 60% | Draw 28% | Sligo Rovers 12%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.67 | Draw 3.57 | Sligo Rovers 8.33. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (60%) — a 48pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 34% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS No has firm model support at 66% — Sligo Rovers's lower xG of 0.54 creates a meaningful probability of a scoring blank, which suppresses the BTTS Yes probability to 34%.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 28% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration — though H2H averaging only 2.9 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
Poisson assigns a 34% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Sligo Rovers 60% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 9 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 3 Apr 2026, 18:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 60% | Draw 28% | Sligo Rovers 12% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 34% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.52 / Sligo Rovers 0.54 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.263 / def 0.730 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.734 / def 0.909 | league avg home 1.325 / away 1.013 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.52
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.54
Sligo Rovers xG
34%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 18:45 on Friday 3 April 2026 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. 4 - 1 Sligo Rovers.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 9 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 60% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 12% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 34% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
Record (7 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 5W | Draws 0 | Sligo Rovers 2W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St Patrick's Athl.'s attacking strength (1.26x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (0.91x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.52. The same calculation in reverse, Sligo Rovers's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.54 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 44/44 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-0, at 18.0%. Close behind: 2-0 (14.7%), 0-0 (14.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
60%
1.67
28%
3.52
12%
8.59
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
19.3%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
14.7%
Home win
0 – 0
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.52
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.06
0.54
Sligo Rovers xG
1.67
60%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
8.59
12%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
34%
BTTS Yes
2.93
66%
BTTS No
1.52
Clean Sheet
58%
1.72
22%
4.58
Win to Nil
35%
2.87
3%
39.36
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.7 | 6.9 | 1.9 | 0.3 | – | – |
| 1 | 19.3 | 10.5 | 2.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 14.7 | 8.0 | 2.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.5 | 4.0 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 4 | 2.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 18.0%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.52 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.54 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 72 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.54 PPG on a 30W 21D 21L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 24W 18D 30L from 72 games, 1.25 PPG, last five W-L-L-D-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.54 PPG, Sligo Rovers on 1.25. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 1.86 PPG from 36 outings (19W 10D 7L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 10W 8D 18L from 36 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.14 scored and 1.46 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 games (1.54 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 24W 18D 30L in their last 72 (1.25 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Sligo Rovers away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.86 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.06 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 10 Aug 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Sligo Rovers specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
7
St Patrick's Athl.
1
Draws
2
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 7, Sligo Rovers have won 2, and 1 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Sligo Rovers 47% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 64% (Sligo Rovers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 22% and 42% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Sligo Rovers in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 47% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s matches and 64% of Sligo Rovers's.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Sligo Rovers.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Sligo Rovers 4-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 9, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.52 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.54 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 2.5 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.26 / defence 0.73 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.73 / defence 0.91, drawn from 44/44 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 60% | Draw 28% | Sligo Rovers 12%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 60%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 63% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 34% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 47%, Sligo Rovers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.25 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.92 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.