St Patrick's Athl. 3-2 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 44%, yet in-form Sligo Rovers provide a compelling counter-argument — this St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. welcome Sligo Rovers to Richmond Park in Premier Division (matchday 26). Kick-off is Sunday 4 August 2024 at 19:00 UK time.
Form Guide
St Patrick's Athl. — last 10 games: 2W 4D 4L, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L D W D L. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings (20%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — St Patrick's Athl. are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
Looking at their last 10 matches, Sligo Rovers stand at 6W 1D 3L — 1.90 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Sligo Rovers's form when playing away from home: 3W 2D 5L across their last 10 road games (1.10 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.90 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.
Form points away from home here. Sligo Rovers's 1.90 PPG return is 0.90 points per game ahead of St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.00 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.
In-Play Profile
St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 63% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; of the 16 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 31%; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Sligo Rovers in-play tendencies (last 61 games, 30 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 80% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 72% of the time; of the 20 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 60% of games (away games); they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 46% versus Sligo Rovers 43%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 51% | Sligo Rovers 48%). Note also that Sligo Rovers surrender HT leads in 35% of cases while St Patrick's Athl. recover from half-time deficits to draw or win 31% of the time — a dynamic that could influence in-play positioning.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.42 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.10 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.983 / defence 1.037 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.106 / defence 1.136. League average goals — home 1.273 / away 0.957. Data: built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 61 games and Sligo Rovers's last 61.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 44% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 29%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 2.26 | Draw 3.71 | Sligo Rovers 3.46. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is St Patrick's Athl. at 44% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sligo Rovers (1.90 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.52 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: St Patrick's Athl. 60% (last 10 home games) | Sligo Rovers 40% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 26 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Sunday 4 August 2024 at 19:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 44% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% (Under 54%) | BTTS Yes 51% (No 49%) | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.42 / Sligo Rovers 1.10 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.983 / def 1.037 | Sligo Rovers attack 1.106 / def 1.136 | league avg home 1.273 / away 0.957 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.42
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
1.10
Sligo Rovers xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers FAQs
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:00 UK time on Sunday 4 August 2024 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. 3 - 2 Sligo Rovers.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 26) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 44% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (54%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
St Patrick's Athl.'s attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (1.14x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.42. The same calculation in reverse, Sligo Rovers's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 1.10 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from St Patrick's Athl.'s last 61 games and Sligo Rovers's last 61 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (9.8%), 0-0 (9.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
44%
2.26
27%
3.71
29%
3.46
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
2 – 1
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.42
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.52
1.10
Sligo Rovers xG
2.26
44%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.46
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.97
49%
BTTS No
2.03
Clean Sheet
33%
3.00
24%
4.14
Win to Nil
15%
6.78
7%
14.34
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 8.8 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.6 | 6.9 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 8.1 | 8.9 | 4.9 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.9 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.4 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.42 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 1.10 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 61 outings, St Patrick's Athl. have picked up 1.48 PPG on a 26W 12D 23L record — L-D-W-D-L across the most recent five.
Sligo Rovers's form line: 20W 14D 27L from 61 games, 1.21 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.48 PPG, Sligo Rovers on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 1.73 PPG from their last 30 home games (16W 4D 10L).
On the road, Sligo Rovers have gone 7W 6D 17L from their last 30 away games — 0.90 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.15 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.07 scored and 1.30 conceded.
Last 61 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
Sligo Rovers
Blended
St Patrick's Athl. (Home) vs Sligo Rovers (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
Sligo Rovers
Blended
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers Form FAQs
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 26W 12D 23L in their last 61 games (1.48 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 20W 14D 27L in their last 61 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Sligo Rovers away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.73 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.73 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 0.90 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Sligo Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 34% of their recent games, Sligo Rovers in 26%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from August 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 19 September 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear recent trend here: St Patrick's Athl. have taken the most recent 2 H2H results in our data.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 10 Aug 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 Sligo Rovers.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Sligo Rovers specifically: 5W 0D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
St Patrick's Athl.
1
Draws
1
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, St Patrick's Athl. have won 8, Sligo Rovers have won 1, and 1 has been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 September 2026: Sligo Rovers 0-1 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from the 10 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 63% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 37% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 43% of those situations.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 30% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 67% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 40%, Sligo Rovers 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 60% (Sligo Rovers). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 30% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; St Patrick's Athl. have failed to score in 27% of games; Sligo Rovers in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ St Patrick's Athl. vs Sligo Rovers Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 53% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s matches and 60% of Sligo Rovers's.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Sligo Rovers matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 63% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 80% of Sligo Rovers's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as St Patrick's Athl. edge out Sligo Rovers 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Sligo Rovers 3-2 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.42 xG and Sligo Rovers 1.10 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 1.6 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Sligo Rovers outscored their 1.10 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.98 / defence 1.04 against Sligo Rovers attack 1.11 / defence 1.14, drawn from 61/61 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 44% | Draw 27% | Sligo Rovers 29%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 44%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 51%, Sligo Rovers 48%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (61 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (61 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.48 PPG, Sligo Rovers 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.57 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.87 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.10 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.67 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.