St Patrick's Athl. 4-1 Drogheda United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours St Patrick's Athl. (57%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as St Patrick's Athl. face Drogheda United.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
St Patrick's Athl. host Drogheda United at Richmond Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 6. Kick-off is scheduled for Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 4W 5D 1L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes.
In front of their own supporters this season, St Patrick's Athl. have posted 3W 5D 2L at Richmond Park — 1.40 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 0.60 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Richmond Park. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Drogheda United have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L W D L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Drogheda United's away record: 1W 6D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.70 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
St Patrick's Athl. are in the better shape of the two on current Premier Division data — 0.70 PPG ahead (1.70 vs 1.00). That form margin is the baseline of a sensible selection even before other signals are layered in.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 6 previous meetings, St Patrick's Athl. have won 2, Drogheda United 0, with 4 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.0 per contest from 6 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 22 Aug 2025, ended 1–0 with St Patrick's Athl. winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.0 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
St Patrick's Athl. trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 48% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 32% of games.
Drogheda United trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — St Patrick's Athl. 43% versus Drogheda United 53%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (St Patrick's Athl. 47% | Drogheda United 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects St Patrick's Athl. 1.57 xG and Drogheda United 0.71 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.213 / defence 0.715 | Drogheda United attack 0.905 / defence 0.967. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.098. St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating of 0.715 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 41 St Patrick's Athl. games / 41 Drogheda United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Draw 27% | Drogheda United 16%. Fair-value odds: St Patrick's Athl. 1.75 | Draw 3.70 | Drogheda United 6.25. The model has a clear lean to St Patrick's Athl. (57%) — a 41pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 40% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.28. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 60% — total xG of 2.28 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, St Patrick's Athl. are the pick at 57% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 27% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
Poisson projects 2.28 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 40% probability — strong conviction, supported by form averaging 1.9 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.0 goals per meeting.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 41%. Form rates corroborate: St Patrick's Athl. 30% | Drogheda United 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (41 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Richmond Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Draw 27% | Drogheda United 16% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 40% | BTTS 41% | xG St Patrick's Athl. 1.57 / Drogheda United 0.71 • Poisson strength factors: St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.213 / def 0.715 | Drogheda United attack 0.905 / def 0.967 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (57%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Expected Goals
0.71
Drogheda United xG
41%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
40%
Over 2.5
20%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United kick off?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Richmond Park.
What was the final score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
St Patrick's Athl. 4 - 1 Drogheda United.
Where is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United being played?
The match is being played at Richmond Park.
What competition is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United part of?
St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our statistical model gives St Patrick's Athl. a 57% chance of winning, Drogheda United a 16% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United will score (BTTS).
Will St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 40%.
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
Record (6 meetings): St Patrick's Athl. 2W | Draws 4 | Drogheda United 0W.
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United in?
St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 4W-5D-1L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.50 | L5 L-W-D-D-D. Drogheda United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-W-D-L.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from St Patrick's Athl.'s attack rating (1.21) and Drogheda United's defence rating (0.97), the model arrives at 1.57 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Drogheda United's attack versus St Patrick's Athl.'s defence, projects 0.71 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (41/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (12.9%), 2-0 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
57%
1.75
27%
3.75
16%
6.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.6%
Home win
1 – 1
11.4%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
St Patrick's Athl. xG
Total xG
2.28
0.71
Drogheda United xG
1.75
57%
Home win
3.75
27%
Draw
6.24
16%
Away win
Goals Markets
67%
Over 1.5
1.49
33%
Under 1.5
3.03
40%
Over 2.5
2.50
60%
Under 2.5
1.67
20%
Over 3.5
5.00
80%
Under 3.5
1.25
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.44
59%
BTTS No
1.70
Clean Sheet
49%
2.04
21%
4.82
Win to Nil
28%
3.55
3%
30.09
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.2 | 7.2 | 2.6 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 16.0 | 11.4 | 4.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.6 | 9.0 | 3.2 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 6.6 | 4.7 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 1.8 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for St Patrick's Athl. and 0.71 for Drogheda United, a combined total of 2.28.
How confident is the prediction model for St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 57%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
St Patrick's Athl. come into this having played 72 games, going 30W 21D 21L for 1.54 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-D-D-D.
On the other side, Drogheda United sit at 1.22 PPG from 72 outings (20W 28D 24L), a run that reads D-L-W-D-L across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: St Patrick's Athl. on 1.54 PPG, Drogheda United on 1.22. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
St Patrick's Athl.'s home form reads 19W 10D 7L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.86 PPG return.
Away from home, Drogheda United have taken 0.89 points per game from 36 outings (6W 14D 16L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, St Patrick's Athl. come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
St Patrick's Athl. are averaging 1.29 goals scored and 0.96 conceded per game recently; Drogheda United are on 1.12 scored and 1.32 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Drogheda United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United in coming into this match?
St Patrick's Athl. have gone 30W 21D 21L in their last 72 games (1.54 PPG), while Drogheda United have gone 20W 28D 24L in their last 72 (1.22 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — St Patrick's Athl. at home or Drogheda United away?
St Patrick's Athl.'s home record (1.86 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — St Patrick's Athl. at home: 1.86 PPG; Drogheda United away: 0.89 PPG.
Have St Patrick's Athl. or Drogheda United been keeping clean sheets recently?
St Patrick's Athl. have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Drogheda United in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to June 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 21 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
St Patrick's Athl. go into this on the back of 5 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
St Patrick's Athl.'s record when hosting Drogheda United specifically: 3W 2D 0L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
St Patrick's Athl.
4
Draws
0
Drogheda United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
From 10 meetings on record, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, Drogheda United have won 0, and 4 have been drawn.
When did St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United last play each other?
They last met on 21 August 2026, when Drogheda United 0-2 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Drogheda United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — St Patrick's Athl. 44%, Drogheda United 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (St Patrick's Athl.) and 47% (Drogheda United).
On the defensive side: St Patrick's Athl. keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Drogheda United in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = St Patrick's Athl. home games / Drogheda United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when St Patrick's Athl. play Drogheda United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent matches and 53% of Drogheda United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is St Patrick's Athl. vs Drogheda United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s recent games and 47% of Drogheda United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do St Patrick's Athl. and Drogheda United tend to score early?
St Patrick's Athl. have had a goal before half-time in 72% of their recent matches, Drogheda United in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Dominant St Patrick's Athl. run riot with a 4-1 hammering of Drogheda United.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Drogheda United 4-1 at Richmond Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting St Patrick's Athl. 1.57 xG and Drogheda United 0.71 xG, a combined 2.28. The scoreboard read 4-1 for 5 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. beat their projection by 2.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.21 / defence 0.71 against Drogheda United attack 0.91 / defence 0.97, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it St Patrick's Athl. 57% | Draw 27% | Drogheda United 16%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 57%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 40%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. Over 3.5 was 20% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 47% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (St Patrick's Athl. 47%, Drogheda United 47%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 43% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Drogheda United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — St Patrick's Athl. 1.54 PPG, Drogheda United 1.22 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 4 against a 1.58 average — above their attacking norm. Drogheda United (home/away splits) shipped 4 against a 1.58 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.