Sligo Rovers 0-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Sligo Rovers at 43%, yet in-form Dundalk provide a compelling counter-argument — this Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to The Showgrounds to face Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 5 March 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Sligo Rovers have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: W W W L D. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Sligo Rovers have posted 5W 2D 3L at The Showgrounds — 1.70 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Sligo Rovers are significantly better at The Showgrounds than their overall form suggests.
Dundalk's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: L W W W L. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity.
Dundalk's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.90 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Dundalk are the stronger side — 0.80 PPG clear of the hosts (2.00 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
Sligo Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 93% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (home games).
Dundalk goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 61% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Sligo Rovers 42% versus Dundalk 64%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Sligo Rovers 31% | Dundalk 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Sligo Rovers 1.33 xG and Dundalk 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Sligo Rovers attack 1.000 / defence 0.927 | Dundalk attack 1.095 / defence 1.027. League average goals — home 1.300 / away 1.035. Data: 38 Sligo Rovers games / 39 Dundalk games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 43% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 29%. Fair-value odds: Sligo Rovers 2.33 | Draw 3.70 | Dundalk 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.38. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.38 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Sligo Rovers as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Dundalk (2.00 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Sligo Rovers if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.38 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Sligo Rovers 40% | Dundalk 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: The Showgrounds • Kick-off: Saturday 5 Mar 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Sligo Rovers 43% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Sligo Rovers 1.33 / Dundalk 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Sligo Rovers attack 1.000 / def 0.927 | Dundalk attack 1.095 / def 1.027 | league avg home 1.300 / away 1.035 • Poisson stance: Sligo Rovers (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.33
Sligo Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Dundalk xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk kick off?
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Saturday 5 March 2022 at The Showgrounds.
What was the final score in Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Sligo Rovers 0 - 0 Dundalk.
Where is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at The Showgrounds.
What competition is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk part of?
Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Sligo Rovers a 43% chance of winning, Dundalk a 29% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Sligo Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Sligo Rovers and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk in?
Sligo Rovers (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-W-L-D. Dundalk (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates Sligo Rovers's attack at 1.00x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.33 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (1.09x) against Sligo Rovers's defence (0.93x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
The sample (38/39 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.6% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (10.9%), 1-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Sligo Rovers Win
43%
2.31
27%
3.65
29%
3.40
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.9%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.3%
Home win
0 – 1
9.7%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.33
Sligo Rovers xG
Total xG
2.38
1.05
Dundalk xG
2.31
43%
Home win
3.65
27%
Draw
3.40
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.09
52%
BTTS No
1.92
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
26%
3.80
Win to Nil
15%
6.61
8%
12.93
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.2 | 9.7 | 5.1 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.2 | 8.6 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.8 | 2.0 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.6%.
How many goals are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.33 expected goals for Sligo Rovers and 1.05 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.38.
How confident is the prediction model for Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 36 outings, Sligo Rovers have picked up 1.58 PPG on a 16W 9D 11L record — W-W-W-L-D across the most recent five.
Dundalk's form line: 13W 9D 14L from 36 games, 1.33 PPG, last five L-W-W-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.58 PPG for Sligo Rovers against 1.33 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Sligo Rovers have posted 1.61 PPG from 18 outings (8W 5D 5L).
On the road, Dundalk have gone 4W 7D 7L from 18 away games — 1.06 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Sligo Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Sligo Rovers are averaging 1.19 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.22 scored and 1.28 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Dundalk in 64%.
Defensively: Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Sligo Rovers and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Sligo Rovers have gone 16W 9D 11L in their last 36 games (1.58 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 13W 9D 14L in their last 36 (1.33 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Sligo Rovers at home or Dundalk away?
Sligo Rovers's home record (1.61 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Sligo Rovers at home: 1.61 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Sligo Rovers or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Sligo Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Dundalk in 22%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won 0-5 on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Sligo Rovers have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Sligo Rovers
2
Draws
5
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Sligo Rovers have won 3, Dundalk have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Sligo Rovers and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Sligo Rovers and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Sligo Rovers see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 29% of the time.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Sligo Rovers 44%, Dundalk 61% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 28% for Sligo Rovers and 39% for Dundalk.
On the defensive side: Sligo Rovers keep a clean sheet in 39% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Sligo Rovers home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Sligo Rovers play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Sligo Rovers's recent matches and 61% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Sligo Rovers vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 28% of Sligo Rovers's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Sligo Rovers and Dundalk tend to score early?
Sligo Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 59% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at Sligo Rovers's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Sligo Rovers and Dundalk finished level at 0-0 at The Showgrounds, Regular Season - 4, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Sligo Rovers 1.33 xG and Dundalk 1.05 xG, a combined 2.38. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. Sligo Rovers fell 1.3 short of their projected output. Dundalk landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Sligo Rovers attack 1.00 / defence 0.93 against Dundalk attack 1.09 / defence 1.03, drawn from 38/39 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Sligo Rovers 43% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 29%, with Sligo Rovers to win its most likely call at 43%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 27%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Sligo Rovers 31%, Dundalk 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 42% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and duly kept one; they fail to score in 25% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 64% of their matches — today it did not.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Sligo Rovers 1.58 PPG, Dundalk 1.33 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.33 scoring average — below par going forward. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.11 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.33 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.