Shelbourne 3-1 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 47% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Shelbourne vs Waterford encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 34 as Shelbourne welcome Waterford to Tolka Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 18 October 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Shelbourne — All Games: 1W 5D 4L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 0.80 points per game. Last five: D L D L L. They are averaging 0.70 goals per game and conceding 1.10 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
In front of their own supporters this season, Shelbourne have posted 4W 4D 2L at Tolka Park — 1.60 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tolka Park. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.80 — Shelbourne are significantly better at Tolka Park than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 2W 1D 7L from 10 Premier Division matches — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Waterford's away record: 4W 0D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.20 PPG). Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.50 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.20 exceeds their overall 0.70 — they actually perform better on the road than their aggregate form implies.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shelbourne at 0.80 PPG versus Waterford's 0.70. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Head to Head
The rivalry is an even one: 2 wins apiece for Shelbourne, 0 for Waterford and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
These sides have historically produced few goals — 1.3 per contest from 3 previous meetings. The Under 2.5 market has a well-supported historical case here. The most recent clash, on 13 Jun 2024, ended 1–0 with Shelbourne winning.
With a balanced win record and just 1.3 goals per game historically, the H2H points toward a tight, low-scoring contest. Under 2.5 goals has the strongest statistical grounding from the fixture history regardless of which side wins.
In-Play Data
Shelbourne trading profile (34 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 62% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
Waterford trading profile (34 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 73% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games); they fail to score in 41% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Waterford 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Shelbourne 29% | Waterford 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.30 xG and Waterford 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.845 / defence 0.928 | Waterford attack 0.823 / defence 1.209. League average goals — home 1.276 / away 0.990. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.209 — this is suppressing Shelbourne's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Shelbourne games / 33 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 47% | Draw 34% | Waterford 19%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.13 | Draw 2.94 | Waterford 5.26. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (34%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 34% | BTTS probability 41% | Total xG 2.06. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 66% probability — total xG of 2.06 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 41% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shelbourne as the most likely outcome at 47% — moderate model lean. With a 34% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shelbourne offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.06 combined xG gives a 34% probability to Under 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 1.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 41% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 40% | Waterford 20% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 18 Oct 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 47% | Draw 34% | Waterford 19% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 34% | BTTS 41% | xG Shelbourne 1.30 / Waterford 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.845 / def 0.928 | Waterford attack 0.823 / def 1.209 | league avg home 1.276 / away 0.990 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (47%) — moderate lean
🎲 Betting Market Intelligence
• Odds data is not currently available for this fixture
🧮 Prediction Model
1.30
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Waterford xG
41%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
34%
Over 2.5
15%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Waterford kick off?
Shelbourne vs Waterford kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 18 October 2024 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Shelbourne 3 - 1 Waterford.
Where is Shelbourne vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Waterford part of?
Shelbourne vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 47% chance of winning, Waterford a 19% chance, and a 34% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 41% probability that both Shelbourne and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 34%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Waterford?
Record (3 meetings): Shelbourne 2W | Draws 1 | Waterford 0W.
What form are Shelbourne and Waterford in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.10 | L5 D-L-D-L-L. Waterford (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.70 / GA 1.60 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
What do the betting odds say about Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Odds data is not currently available for this fixture.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.84) and Waterford's defence rating (1.21), the model arrives at 1.30 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Shelbourne's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-0 emerges as the single most likely result, at 15.0%. Close behind: 0-0 (14.4%), 1-1 (14.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 44% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
47%
2.14
34%
2.91
19%
5.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.6%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
12.8%
Draw
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.30
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.06
0.76
Waterford xG
2.14
47%
Home win
2.91
34%
Draw
5.29
19%
Away win
Goals Markets
61%
Over 1.5
1.64
39%
Under 1.5
2.56
34%
Over 2.5
2.94
66%
Under 2.5
1.52
15%
Over 3.5
6.67
85%
Under 3.5
1.18
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
41%
BTTS Yes
2.41
59%
BTTS No
1.71
Clean Sheet
47%
2.13
27%
3.68
Win to Nil
22%
4.55
5%
19.48
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.8 | 9.6 | 3.6 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 16.6 | 12.6 | 4.8 | 1.2 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 10.8 | 8.2 | 3.1 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 4.7 | 3.6 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · White ring = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.30 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.76 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.06.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 34 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.68 PPG on a 15W 12D 7L record — D-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Waterford's form line: 14W 5D 15L from 34 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Shelbourne on 1.68 PPG, Waterford on 1.38. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.69 PPG from 16 outings (7W 6D 3L).
On the road, Waterford have gone 6W 2D 8L from 16 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shelbourne come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shelbourne are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 0.79 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 1.24 scored and 1.24 conceded.
Defensively: Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 34 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Waterford
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Waterford in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 15W 12D 7L in their last 34 games (1.68 PPG), while Waterford have gone 14W 5D 15L in their last 34 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Waterford away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.69 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.69 PPG; Waterford away: 1.25 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Waterford been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, Waterford in 21%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to February 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
Shelbourne's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shelbourne
3
Draws
1
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 6, Waterford have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 22 May 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Waterford.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Waterford?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 44%, Waterford 31% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 31% (Shelbourne) and 44% (Waterford).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 56% of their matches; Waterford in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Waterford?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 31% of Waterford's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 31% of Shelbourne's recent games and 44% of Waterford's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Waterford tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Waterford in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shelbourne cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Waterford 3-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 34, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.30 xG and Waterford 0.76 xG, a combined 2.06. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Shelbourne beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.84 / defence 0.93 against Waterford attack 0.82 / defence 1.21, drawn from 69/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 47% | Draw 34% | Waterford 19%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 47%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 34%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. Over 3.5 was 15% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 41% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 40% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 29%, Waterford 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (34 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and conceded here.
Waterford's trading profile (34 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.68 PPG, Waterford 1.38 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Waterford (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.38 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.