Shelbourne 1-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis

Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 35% as Shelbourne take on St Patrick's Athl..

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Fixture Analysis

It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 27 as Shelbourne welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tolka Park. Kick-off is set for Sunday 9 August 2026 at 16:00 UTC.

Recent Form

Across all Premier Division games this season, Shelbourne have gone 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: D L D W L. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shelbourne, so this record blends games from this season and last.

Shelbourne's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Tolka Park this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.

Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.30 PPG. Last five: L W D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 0.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.

On the road, St Patrick's Athl. have gone 3W 4D 3L from 10 away fixtures this term (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.

There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shelbourne at 1.60 PPG versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.30. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.

Head to Head

Shelbourne hold a clear advantage in this fixture, picking up 5 wins from 9 previous encounters compared to 2 for St Patrick's Athl., with 2 draws in between.

The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 15 May 2026, ended 1–0 with Shelbourne winning.

The historical record gives Shelbourne a meaningful edge here — 5 wins from 9 meetings is the kind of ledger that should not be discounted when the form picture is inconclusive. Even away from home, the visitors have struggled to impose themselves in this fixture.

In-Play Profile

Shelbourne in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 68% of the time; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 57% of games (home games).

St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (61 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 63% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 37% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 33% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 36% of games.

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 66% versus St Patrick's Athl. 38%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 52% | St Patrick's Athl. 38%).

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.23 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.18 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.966 / defence 1.159 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.836 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.423 / away 1.220. Data: 61 Shelbourne games / 62 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).

Result probabilities: Shelbourne 34% | Draw 35% | St Patrick's Athl. 31%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.94 | Draw 2.86 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.23. The draw (35%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 35% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 34% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.

The Poisson model projects 2.41 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 43% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.

On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 53% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 70% | St Patrick's Athl. 50% BTTS from recent games.

The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.

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