Shelbourne 2-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 45%, yet in-form Shelbourne provide a compelling counter-argument — this Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Tolka Park plays host to Shelbourne versus Shamrock Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 20. Kick-off: Friday 12 June 2026 at 19:00 UTC.
Current Form
Shelbourne's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 3D 1L from 10 games (2.10 PPG). Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne's form when playing at home: 5W 3D 2L across 10 games at Tolka Park this term (1.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shamrock Rovers (all games): 4W 2D 4L across 10 Premier Division outings this term — 1.40 points per game. Last five: L L L W L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 4W 3D 3L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The points-per-game gap of 0.70 in Shelbourne's favour (2.10 vs 1.40) is a statistically meaningful difference. The hosts are the form pick here, with draw protection the sensible hedge given the away side's competitiveness.
In terms of goals, both squads have been finding the net consistently (using home/away splits) — Shelbourne have seen both teams score in 60% of their games, Shamrock Rovers in 70%. That combined rate is a strong statistical case for BTTS Yes as a standalone play.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Shelbourne lead 2W to 3W over the last 9 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 9 previous meetings have averaged 2.6 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Apr 2026, ended 2–3 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 67% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Shamrock Rovers goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 81% of the time; BTTS occurs in 64% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 54% versus Shamrock Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 38% | Shamrock Rovers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.06 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.46 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.922 / defence 1.190 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.006 / defence 0.779. League average goals — home 1.485 / away 1.223. Shamrock Rovers's defence strength of 0.779 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 55 Shelbourne games / 56 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 26% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 45%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 3.85 | Draw 3.57 | Shamrock Rovers 2.22. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 45% — the draw (28%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.53. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.53 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 45% — moderate model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Shelbourne (2.10 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 28% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.53 combined xG gives a 46% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 52%. Form rates corroborate: Shelbourne 60% | Shamrock Rovers 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 20 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 12 Jun 2026, 19:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 26% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 45% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Shelbourne 1.06 / Shamrock Rovers 1.46 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.922 / def 1.190 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.006 / def 0.779 | league avg home 1.485 / away 1.223 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (45%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.06
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
1.46
Shamrock Rovers xG
52%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:00 on Friday 12 June 2026 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Shelbourne 2 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 20 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 26% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 45% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (9 meetings): Shelbourne 2W | Draws 4 | Shamrock Rovers 3W.
What form are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 6W-3D-1L in 10 | 2.10 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-L-L-W-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shelbourne's attack rating (0.92) and Shamrock Rovers's defence rating (0.78), the model arrives at 1.06 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shamrock Rovers's attack (1.01x) against Shelbourne's defence (1.19x) — and the away total comes out at 1.46.
These ratings are built from 55/56 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
26%
3.79
28%
3.52
45%
2.21
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 2
9.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.06
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.53
1.46
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.79
26%
Home win
3.52
28%
Draw
2.21
45%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
23%
4.32
34%
2.90
Win to Nil
6%
16.38
16%
6.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.0 | 11.7 | 8.5 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.5 | 12.4 | 9.1 | 4.4 | 1.6 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.5 | 6.6 | 4.8 | 2.4 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.6 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.4 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.06 expected goals for Shelbourne and 1.46 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.53.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 45%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 72 outings, Shelbourne have picked up 1.69 PPG on a 32W 26D 14L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five.
Shamrock Rovers's form line: 36W 19D 17L from 72 games, 1.76 PPG, last five L-L-L-W-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.69 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.76 for Shamrock Rovers. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, Shelbourne have posted 1.75 PPG from 36 outings (17W 12D 7L).
On the road, Shamrock Rovers have gone 15W 10D 11L from 36 away games — 1.53 PPG when travelling.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.22 goals scored and 0.89 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.47 scored and 0.94 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 32W 26D 14L in their last 72 games (1.69 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 36W 19D 17L in their last 72 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.75 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.75 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.53 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 35% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 1W 3D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Shamrock Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Shelbourne
4
Draws
3
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 3, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Shamrock Rovers.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 56%, Shamrock Rovers 64% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (Shelbourne) and 50% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne keep a clean sheet in 36% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Shamrock Rovers?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Shelbourne's games and 64% of Shamrock Rovers's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shelbourne vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of Shelbourne's recent games and 50% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shelbourne and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Shelbourne have had a goal before half-time in 64% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Shelbourne defy the odds to beat Shamrock Rovers 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Shamrock Rovers 2-1 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 20, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.06 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.46 xG, a combined 2.53. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Shelbourne beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.92 / defence 1.19 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.01 / defence 0.78, drawn from 55/56 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 26% | Draw 28% | Shamrock Rovers 45%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 45%. The actual Shelbourne win had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 38%, Shamrock Rovers 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.69 PPG, Shamrock Rovers 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) shipped 2 against a 1.06 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.