Shelbourne 1-0 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shelbourne at 47%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shelbourne vs Dundalk fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Dundalk make the trip to Tolka Park to face Shelbourne in Premier Division, Regular Season - 33. The match kicks off on Friday 6 October 2023 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Shelbourne (all games): 5W 4D 1L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W W D L. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.70 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Shelbourne at Tolka Park this season: 5W 4D 1L from 10 home games — 1.90 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Dundalk have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 4W 2D 4L. Last five: L L L W W. They are scoring at 1.70 per game and conceding 1.30. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Dundalk away from home this season: 4W 0D 6L from 10 away games — 1.20 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game.
The form ledger tips toward Shelbourne. A 0.50 PPG lead over Dundalk (1.90 vs 1.40) is a consistent enough margin to carry weight. If the win odds appear compressed, Draw No Bet offers draw insurance at a lower cost than a full switch to Double Chance.
Head-to-Head
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 0 wins for Shelbourne, 0 for Dundalk and 2 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 6 Aug 2023, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Shelbourne — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at home): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 36% of games (home games); they fail to score in 34% of games.
Dundalk — key trading statistics (68 games, 33 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shelbourne 47% versus Dundalk 52%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shelbourne 35% | Dundalk 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shelbourne 1.43 xG and Dundalk 0.98 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shelbourne attack 0.911 / defence 0.980 | Dundalk attack 0.996 / defence 1.012. League average goals — home 1.553 / away 1.002. Data: 68 Shelbourne games / 68 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shelbourne 47% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 26%. Fair-value odds: Shelbourne 2.13 | Draw 3.70 | Dundalk 3.85. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 47% — the draw (27%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.41. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.41 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 47% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 27% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.41 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. This conflicts with form data: Shelbourne 80% | Dundalk 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shelbourne vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 33 | Venue: Tolka Park • Kick-off: Friday 6 Oct 2023, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shelbourne 47% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 48% | xG Shelbourne 1.43 / Dundalk 0.98 • Poisson strength factors: Shelbourne attack 0.911 / def 0.980 | Dundalk attack 0.996 / def 1.012 | league avg home 1.553 / away 1.002 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (47%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
Shelbourne xG
Expected Goals
0.98
Dundalk xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shelbourne vs Dundalk kick off?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 6 October 2023 at Tolka Park.
What was the final score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Shelbourne 1 - 0 Dundalk.
Where is Shelbourne vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Tolka Park.
What competition is Shelbourne vs Dundalk part of?
Shelbourne vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 33 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Shelbourne a 47% chance of winning, Dundalk a 26% chance, and a 27% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Shelbourne and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Shelbourne vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
Record (2 meetings): Shelbourne 0W | Draws 2 | Dundalk 0W.
What form are Shelbourne and Dundalk in?
Shelbourne (all comps): 5W-4D-1L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-W-W-D-L. Dundalk (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Shelbourne's attacking strength (0.91x league average) is weighed against Dundalk's defensive record (1.01x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.43. Flip it around — Dundalk's attack (1.00x) against Shelbourne's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.98.
These ratings are built from 68/68 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.2%), 0-0 (10.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
47%
2.11
27%
3.71
26%
3.90
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
2 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
Shelbourne xG
Total xG
2.41
0.98
Dundalk xG
2.11
47%
Home win
3.71
27%
Draw
3.90
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
38%
2.66
24%
4.18
Win to Nil
18%
5.61
6%
16.31
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.0 | 8.8 | 4.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 12.6 | 6.2 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 9.0 | 4.4 | 1.4 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.4 | 4.3 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.6 | 1.5 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.4 | 0.4 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Shelbourne and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for Shelbourne and 0.98 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.41.
How confident is the prediction model for Shelbourne vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 47%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shelbourne come into this having played 68 games, going 22W 25D 21L for 1.34 points per game. Their last five reads W-W-W-D-L.
On the other side, Dundalk sit at 1.65 PPG from 68 outings (31W 19D 18L), a run that reads L-L-L-W-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.34 PPG for Shelbourne against 1.65 for Dundalk. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Shelbourne's home form reads 12W 13D 8L across 33 games on their own ground, a 1.48 PPG return.
Away from home, Dundalk have taken 1.18 points per game from 33 outings (10W 9D 14L). That's a step down from their 1.65 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Dundalk's season.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shelbourne are averaging 1.12 goals scored and 1.06 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.47 scored and 1.09 conceded.
Last 68 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shelbourne
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shelbourne and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Shelbourne have gone 22W 25D 21L in their last 68 games (1.34 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 31W 19D 18L in their last 68 (1.65 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shelbourne at home or Dundalk away?
Shelbourne's home record (1.48 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shelbourne at home: 1.48 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.18 PPG.
Have Shelbourne or Dundalk been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shelbourne have kept a clean sheet in 32% of their recent games, Dundalk in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 3 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
There's a clear current trend here: Shelbourne have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shelbourne have gone 4W 1D 1L from 6 meetings on their own ground against Dundalk — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
6
Shelbourne
3
Draws
1
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
From 10 meetings on record, Shelbourne have won 6, Dundalk have won 1, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shelbourne and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 3 July 2026, when Shelbourne 2-1 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Shelbourne and Dundalk?
Shelbourne have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Dundalk see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shelbourne 54%, Dundalk 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 36% (Shelbourne) and 39% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Dundalk in 30%; Shelbourne have failed to score in 30% of games; Dundalk in 39%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shelbourne home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shelbourne play Dundalk?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 54% of Shelbourne's recent matches and 42% of Dundalk's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shelbourne vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 36% of Shelbourne's recent games and 39% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Prediction vindicated as Shelbourne edge out Dundalk 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shelbourne beat Dundalk 1-0 at Tolka Park, Regular Season - 33, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shelbourne 1.43 xG and Dundalk 0.98 xG, a combined 2.41. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Dundalk landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shelbourne attack 0.91 / defence 0.98 against Dundalk attack 1.00 / defence 1.01, drawn from 68/68 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shelbourne 47% | Draw 27% | Dundalk 26%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 47%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 70% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shelbourne 35%, Dundalk 53%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shelbourne's trading profile (68 games, 33 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 32% of the time, and duly kept one.
Dundalk's trading profile (68 games, 33 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 52% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 34% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Shelbourne 1.34 PPG, Dundalk 1.65 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Shelbourne win broke the near-deadlock. Shelbourne (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.06 average — tighter than their form line. Dundalk (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.88 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.