Shamrock Rovers 2-0 Waterford – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 27 as Shamrock Rovers welcome Waterford to Tallaght Stadium. Kick-off is set for Friday 10 September 2021 at 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Shamrock Rovers have gone 6W 2D 2L from 10 outings — a 2.00 PPG return. Last five: W W W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.90 goals per game, with 1.00 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Tallaght Stadium, Shamrock Rovers have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Waterford stand at 6W 2D 2L from 10 Premier Division matches — 2.00 PPG. Last five: W W L W D. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Waterford, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Waterford have posted 4W 0D 6L from 10 away outings — 1.20 PPG. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.20 is notably below their overall 2.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shamrock Rovers at 2.00 PPG versus Waterford's 2.00. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
In-Play Data
Shamrock Rovers trading profile (24 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; BTTS occurs in 75% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games).
Waterford trading profile (24 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 91% of fixtures in away games; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (away games); they fail to score in 38% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 62% versus Waterford 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 46% | Waterford 58%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.48 xG and Waterford 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.072 / defence 0.966 | Waterford attack 0.800 / defence 1.279. League average goals — home 1.083 / away 1.213. Waterford bring a strong defensive rating of 1.279 — this is suppressing Shamrock Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 24 Shamrock Rovers games / 26 Waterford games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 50% | Draw 26% | Waterford 24%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.00 | Draw 3.85 | Waterford 4.17. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (26%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 44% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.42. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 56% — total xG of 2.42 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 50% — moderate model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.42 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 44% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 47%. Form rates are neutral: Shamrock Rovers 70% | Waterford 40%.
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🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 27 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 10 Sep 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 50% | Draw 26% | Waterford 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 44% | BTTS 47% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.48 / Waterford 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.072 / def 0.966 | Waterford attack 0.800 / def 1.279 | league avg home 1.083 / away 1.213 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.48
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Waterford xG
47%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
44%
Over 2.5
23%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 10 September 2021 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Shamrock Rovers 2 - 0 Waterford.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford is a Regular Season - 27 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 50% chance of winning, Waterford a 24% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Waterford will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 44%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Waterford in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.00 | L5 W-W-W-W-L. Waterford (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-L-W-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.07) and Waterford's defence rating (1.28), the model arrives at 1.48 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Waterford's attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 0.94 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 24/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.0%. Close behind: 1-0 (11.6%), 0-0 (10.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
50%
2.00
26%
3.81
24%
4.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.48
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.42
0.94
Waterford xG
2.00
50%
Home win
3.81
26%
Draw
4.20
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
70%
Over 1.5
1.43
30%
Under 1.5
3.33
44%
Over 2.5
2.27
56%
Under 2.5
1.79
23%
Over 3.5
4.35
77%
Under 3.5
1.30
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.13
53%
BTTS No
1.89
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
23%
4.41
Win to Nil
20%
5.11
5%
18.51
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.9 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.2 | 12.4 | 5.8 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.8 | 9.2 | 4.3 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.8 | 4.5 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Waterford expected to score?
The model projects 1.48 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.94 for Waterford, a combined total of 2.42.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 24 outings, Shamrock Rovers have picked up 2.08 PPG on a 15W 5D 4L record — W-W-W-W-L across the most recent five. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Waterford's form line: 9W 2D 13L from 24 games, 1.21 PPG, last five W-W-L-W-D. The sample for Waterford is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Shamrock Rovers are the form team by 0.87 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Waterford.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Shamrock Rovers have posted 2.08 PPG from 12 outings (7W 4D 1L).
On the road, Waterford have gone 5W 0D 7L from 12 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.83 conceded per game recently; Waterford are on 0.96 scored and 1.71 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Shamrock Rovers have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 24 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
Waterford
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Waterford in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 15W 5D 4L in their last 24 games (2.08 PPG), while Waterford have gone 9W 2D 13L in their last 24 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Waterford away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.08 PPG; Waterford away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 19 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 2 head-to-head results.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting Waterford specifically: 4W 0D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
8
Shamrock Rovers
1
Draws
1
Waterford
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 8, Waterford have won 1, and 1 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Waterford last play each other?
They last met on 19 June 2026, when Waterford 0-2 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Waterford?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 8 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 17% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Waterford are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 91% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 75%, Waterford 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 50% for Shamrock Rovers and 75% for Waterford. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 17% and 8% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Waterford in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Waterford away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Waterford?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 75% of Shamrock Rovers's games and 50% of Waterford's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Waterford usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 50% of Shamrock Rovers's matches and 75% of Waterford's.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Waterford tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Waterford in 91% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shamrock Rovers cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over Waterford.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Waterford 2-0 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 27, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.48 xG and Waterford 0.94 xG, a combined 2.42. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Waterford landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.07 / defence 0.97 against Waterford attack 0.80 / defence 1.28, drawn from 24/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 50% | Draw 26% | Waterford 24%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 50%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 44%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 70% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 46%, Waterford 58%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 54%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (24 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did not.
Waterford's trading profile (24 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 38% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.08 PPG against 1.21. That form edge translated into the three points. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.83 average — tighter than their form line. Waterford (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.00 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.