Shamrock Rovers 3-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 24 as Shamrock Rovers welcome St Patrick's Athl. to Tallaght Stadium. Kick-off is set for Monday 15 May 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Shamrock Rovers — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 2.30 points per game. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shamrock Rovers at Tallaght Stadium this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Looking at all fixtures this season, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 6W 1D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.90 PPG. Last five: W W L L W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.10 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
St Patrick's Athl.'s form when playing away from home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 road games this term (1.50 PPG). Away from home they average 1.70 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Shamrock Rovers at 2.30 PPG versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.90. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Shamrock Rovers in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 58% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 54% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 49% versus St Patrick's Athl. 51%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 44% | St Patrick's Athl. 53%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 2.42 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.58 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.391 / defence 1.039 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.242 / defence 1.329. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.226. Shamrock Rovers carry an above-average attack strength of 1.391 — their λ of 2.42 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. St Patrick's Athl. bring a strong defensive rating of 1.329 — this is suppressing Shamrock Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. St Patrick's Athl. have an above-average attack strength of 1.242 — the away xG of 1.58 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 51 Shamrock Rovers games / 51 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 56% | Draw 19% | St Patrick's Athl. 25%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.79 | Draw 5.26 | St Patrick's Athl. 4.00. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (56%) — a 31pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS probability 72% | Total xG 4.00. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.00 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 72% reflects that both xG figures (2.42 / 1.58) are above the threshold where scoring blanks become the primary outcome — both sides are projected to find the net.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 19% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 4.00 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 76% — reasonable confidence, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 72% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 40% | St Patrick's Athl. 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 24 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Monday 15 May 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 56% | Draw 19% | St Patrick's Athl. 25% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% | BTTS 72% | xG Shamrock Rovers 2.42 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.58 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.391 / def 1.039 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.242 / def 1.329 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.226 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.42
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
1.58
St Patrick's Athl. xG
72%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 20:00 on Monday 15 May 2023 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Shamrock Rovers 3 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 24 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 56% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 25% chance, and a 19% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 72% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 6W-1D-3L in 10 | 1.90 PPG | GF 2.10 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-W-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.39) and St Patrick's Athl.'s defence rating (1.33), the model arrives at 2.42 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 1.58 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 51/51 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 2-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 8.5%. Close behind: 1-1 (7.9%), 3-1 (6.8%). Together the top three scorelines make up 23% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
56%
1.78
19%
5.22
25%
4.06
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 1
8.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
7.0%
Draw
3 – 1
6.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.42
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
4.00
1.58
St Patrick's Athl. xG
1.78
56%
Home win
5.22
19%
Draw
4.06
25%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
72%
BTTS Yes
1.38
28%
BTTS No
3.62
Clean Sheet
21%
4.87
9%
11.26
Win to Nil
12%
8.66
2%
45.72
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 2.9 | 2.3 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 4.4 | 7.0 | 5.5 | 2.9 | 1.2 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 8.5 | 6.7 | 3.5 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 3 | 4.3 | 6.8 | 5.4 | 2.9 | 1.1 | 0.4 |
| 4 | 2.6 | 4.1 | 3.3 | 1.7 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 5 | 1.3 | 2.0 | 1.6 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 2-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 8.5%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 2.42 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 1.58 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 4.00.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 72 games, going 48W 13D 11L for 2.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, St Patrick's Athl. sit at 1.71 PPG from 72 outings (36W 15D 21L), a run that reads W-W-L-L-W across their last five.
Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.47 PPG clear of St Patrick's Athl. — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Venue Form
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 28W 7D 1L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.53 PPG return.
Away from home, St Patrick's Athl. have taken 1.44 points per game from 36 outings (14W 10D 12L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.57 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 48W 13D 11L in their last 72 games (2.18 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 36W 15D 21L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.53 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.44 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 29 May 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
There's a clear current trend here: Shamrock Rovers have taken the last 3 head-to-head results.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 19 May 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 4W 1D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
2
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 29 May 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl.?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 58% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 56%, St Patrick's Athl. 58% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 50% (St Patrick's Athl.).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Shamrock Rovers's games and 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 50% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 58% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out St Patrick's Athl. 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat St Patrick's Athl. 3-2 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 24, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 2.42 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.58 xG, a combined 4.00. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.39 / defence 1.04 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.24 / defence 1.33, drawn from 51/51 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 56% | Draw 19% | St Patrick's Athl. 25%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 72% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 49% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 44%, St Patrick's Athl. 53%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.71. The form guide was vindicated by the result. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.97 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 4 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (hit). The data earned its keep here, calling the bulk of the fixture correctly.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.