Shamrock Rovers 1-2 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 50%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Shamrock Rovers and Derry City meet at Tallaght Stadium in Premier Division, Regular Season - 3. This fixture gets under way on Friday 3 March 2023 at 20:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Shamrock Rovers have collected 2.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 7W 2D 1L. Last five: W D W W W. They are averaging 2.00 goals per game — a high-scoring output that makes them a genuine attacking threat in any fixture. Defensively, conceding just 0.70 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
Shamrock Rovers at Tallaght Stadium this season: 9W 1D 0L from 10 home games — 2.80 PPG on home soil. They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.80 is noticeably stronger than their overall 2.30 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Derry City's overall Premier Division record this term: 6W 2D 2L from 10 games (2.00 PPG). Last five: W D D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.30 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in only 10% of their fixtures — a very low rate that strongly backs BTTS No.
Derry City away from home this season: 5W 3D 2L from 10 away games — 1.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 2.30 for Shamrock Rovers, 2.00 for Derry City — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading
Shamrock Rovers half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time.
Derry City half-time and goal-timing data (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 83% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 49% versus Derry City 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 44% | Derry City 43%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 1.47 xG and Derry City 0.86 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.120 / defence 0.961 | Derry City attack 1.050 / defence 0.818. League average goals — home 1.603 / away 0.854. Data: 38 Shamrock Rovers games / 38 Derry City games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 50% | Draw 30% | Derry City 20%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 2.00 | Draw 3.33 | Derry City 5.00. Shamrock Rovers hold a narrow Poisson edge at 50% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 41% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.33. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 59% — total xG of 2.33 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Shamrock Rovers at 50% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.33 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 41% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 46% on No. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 40% | Derry City 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (38 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 3 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Friday 3 Mar 2023, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 50% | Draw 30% | Derry City 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 41% | BTTS 46% | xG Shamrock Rovers 1.47 / Derry City 0.86 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.120 / def 0.961 | Derry City attack 1.050 / def 0.818 | league avg home 1.603 / away 0.854 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (50%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.86
Derry City xG
46%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
41%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 3 March 2023 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Shamrock Rovers 1 - 2 Derry City.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 3 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 50% chance of winning, Derry City a 20% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 41%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Derry City in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.70 | L5 W-D-W-W-W. Derry City (all comps): 6W-2D-2L in 10 | 2.00 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.30 | L5 W-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Shamrock Rovers's attack rating (1.12) and Derry City's defence rating (0.82), the model arrives at 1.47 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Derry City's attack (1.05x) against Shamrock Rovers's defence (0.96x) — and the away total comes out at 0.86.
The sample (38/38 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 0-0 (11.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 38% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
50%
2.01
30%
3.32
20%
4.93
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
2 – 0
10.5%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
2.33
0.86
Derry City xG
2.01
50%
Home win
3.32
30%
Draw
4.93
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
41%
Over 2.5
2.44
59%
Under 2.5
1.69
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
42%
2.37
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
21%
4.76
5%
21.44
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.7 | 8.4 | 3.6 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 12.3 | 5.3 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.5 | 9.0 | 3.9 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.1 | 4.4 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.9 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.6 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.86 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.33.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 50%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Shamrock Rovers come into this having played 72 games, going 48W 13D 11L for 2.18 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-W-W-W.
On the other side, Derry City sit at 1.67 PPG from 72 outings (32W 24D 16L), a run that reads W-D-D-L-L across their last five.
Shamrock Rovers carry the stronger recent form of the two, 0.51 PPG clear of Derry City — worth weighing alongside whatever the head-to-head and market data say.
Home & Away Splits
Shamrock Rovers's home form reads 28W 7D 1L across 36 games on their own ground, a 2.53 PPG return.
Away from home, Derry City have taken 1.75 points per game from 36 outings (18W 9D 9L).
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.69 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.42 scored and 0.96 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Derry City in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 48W 13D 11L in their last 72 games (2.18 PPG), while Derry City have gone 32W 24D 16L in their last 72 (1.67 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Derry City away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.53 PPG; Derry City away: 1.75 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Derry City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 42% of their recent games, Derry City in 33%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Shamrock Rovers have gone 3W 2D 0L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Derry City — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Shamrock Rovers
3
Draws
2
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City?
From 10 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 5, Derry City have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shamrock Rovers 1-1 Derry City.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Derry City?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 56%, Derry City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Shamrock Rovers) and 44% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Derry City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 56% of Shamrock Rovers's games and 56% of Derry City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Shamrock Rovers's recent games and 44% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Derry City tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Derry City in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Derry City defy the odds to beat Shamrock Rovers 1-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Derry City beat Shamrock Rovers 1-2 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 3, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 1.47 xG and Derry City 0.86 xG, a combined 2.33. The scoreboard read 1-2 for 3 actual goals. Derry City outscored their 0.86 projection by 1.1. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.12 / defence 0.96 against Derry City attack 1.05 / defence 0.82, drawn from 38/38 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 50% | Draw 30% | Derry City 20%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 50%. Instead the game produced a Derry City win, an outcome the model had rated at just 20% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 41%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 69% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 44%, Derry City 43%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 52%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Derry City's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 33% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 2.18 PPG against 1.67. Form was overturned, with Derry City winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Shamrock Rovers (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.97 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 0.64 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.