Shamrock Rovers 2-1 Cork City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Shamrock Rovers at 74%, yet other data sources diverge — this Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 26 sees Cork City travel to Tallaght Stadium to take on Shamrock Rovers. The game is scheduled for Sunday 6 August 2023, 18:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Shamrock Rovers stand at 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.70 PPG. Last five: W D W L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for Shamrock Rovers, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Shamrock Rovers's home record at Tallaght Stadium: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Premier Division appearances (2.30 PPG). They are averaging 2.20 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Tallaght Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.30 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.70 — Shamrock Rovers are significantly better at Tallaght Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Cork City — All Games: 4W 2D 4L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.40 PPG. Last five: L D D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. This season is still relatively young for Cork City, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Cork City have posted 1W 2D 7L from 10 away outings — 0.50 PPG. Away from home they average 0.60 goals scored and 2.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.50 is notably below their overall 1.40 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Shamrock Rovers 1.70 PPG, Cork City 1.40 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 2 previous encounters have yielded 0 wins for Shamrock Rovers, 1 for Cork City and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 2 meetings have averaged 4.5 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 26 May 2023, ended 0–1 with Cork City winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.5 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Shamrock Rovers in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at home): they score before half-time in 92% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 75% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 75% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time.
Cork City in-play tendencies (25 games, 12 at away): they score before half-time in 83% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games); they fail to score in 32% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Shamrock Rovers 40% versus Cork City 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Shamrock Rovers 52% | Cork City 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Shamrock Rovers 2.41 xG and Cork City 0.76 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.232 / defence 0.924 | Cork City attack 0.717 / defence 1.316. League average goals — home 1.484 / away 1.148. Cork City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.316 — this is suppressing Shamrock Rovers's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 61 Shamrock Rovers games / 25 Cork City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 74% | Draw 16% | Cork City 10%. Fair-value odds: Shamrock Rovers 1.35 | Draw 6.25 | Cork City 10.00. The model has a clear lean to Shamrock Rovers (74%) — a 64pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 61% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 3.17. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 61% — the 3.17 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers as the most likely outcome at 74% — clear model lean.
On the goals line, Poisson's 3.17 combined xG gives a 61% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
Poisson assigns a 49% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Shamrock Rovers 50% | Cork City 40% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 26 | Venue: Tallaght Stadium • Kick-off: Sunday 6 Aug 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Shamrock Rovers 74% | Draw 16% | Cork City 10% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 61% | BTTS 49% | xG Shamrock Rovers 2.41 / Cork City 0.76 • Poisson strength factors: Shamrock Rovers attack 1.232 / def 0.924 | Cork City attack 0.717 / def 1.316 | league avg home 1.484 / away 1.148 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (74%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
2.41
Shamrock Rovers xG
Expected Goals
0.76
Cork City xG
49%
BTTS
83%
Over 1.5
61%
Over 2.5
39%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City kick off?
Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 6 August 2023 at Tallaght Stadium.
What was the final score in Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Shamrock Rovers 2 - 1 Cork City.
Where is Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City being played?
The match is being played at Tallaght Stadium.
What competition is Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City part of?
Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City is a Regular Season - 26 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Our statistical model gives Shamrock Rovers a 74% chance of winning, Cork City a 10% chance, and a 16% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both Shamrock Rovers and Cork City will score (BTTS).
Will Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 61%.
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Cork City?
Record (2 meetings): Shamrock Rovers 0W | Draws 1 | Cork City 1W.
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Cork City in?
Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-D-W-L-D. Cork City (all comps): 4W-2D-4L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-D-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Shamrock Rovers's attacking strength (1.23x league average) is weighed against Cork City's defensive record (1.32x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 2.41. The same calculation in reverse, Cork City's attack versus Shamrock Rovers's defence, projects 0.76 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 61/25 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 2-0, at 12.2%. Close behind: 3-0 (9.8%), 2-1 (9.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
74%
1.36
16%
6.06
10%
10.20
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
2 – 0
12.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 0
10.1%
Home win
3 – 0
9.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
2.41
Shamrock Rovers xG
Total xG
3.17
0.76
Cork City xG
1.36
74%
Home win
6.06
16%
Draw
10.20
10%
Away win
Goals Markets
82%
Over 1.5
1.22
18%
Under 1.5
5.56
61%
Over 2.5
1.64
39%
Under 2.5
2.56
39%
Over 3.5
2.56
61%
Under 3.5
1.64
21%
Over 4.5
4.76
79%
Under 4.5
1.27
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.95
Clean Sheet
47%
2.14
9%
11.09
Win to Nil
34%
2.90
1%
113.16
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 4.2 | 3.2 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 10.1 | 7.7 | 2.9 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 12.2 | 9.3 | 3.5 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.8 | 7.4 | 2.8 | 0.7 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 5.9 | 4.5 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 2.8 | 2.2 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Our Poisson model rates 2-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.2%.
How many goals are Shamrock Rovers and Cork City expected to score?
The model projects 2.41 expected goals for Shamrock Rovers and 0.76 for Cork City, a combined total of 3.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 74%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Shamrock Rovers's recent record stands at 13W 8D 4L from 25 games, a 1.88 PPG return, with W-D-W-L-D in the last five. The sample for Shamrock Rovers is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Cork City, meanwhile, have gone 6W 5D 14L across 25 games — 0.92 PPG, with L-D-D-L-L in their last five. The sample for Cork City is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.96 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cork City heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, Shamrock Rovers have managed 7W 3D 2L from 12 games — 2.00 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Cork City's away record stands at 1W 3D 8L across 12 trips, a 0.50 PPG haul. That's a step down from their 0.92 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Cork City's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Shamrock Rovers come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Shamrock Rovers are averaging 1.88 goals scored and 0.88 conceded per game recently; Cork City are on 1.04 scored and 1.80 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 25 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Shamrock Rovers
Blended
Cork City
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Shamrock Rovers and Cork City in coming into this match?
Shamrock Rovers have gone 13W 8D 4L in their last 25 games (1.88 PPG), while Cork City have gone 6W 5D 14L in their last 25 (0.92 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Shamrock Rovers at home or Cork City away?
Shamrock Rovers's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Shamrock Rovers at home: 2.00 PPG; Cork City away: 0.50 PPG.
Have Shamrock Rovers or Cork City been keeping clean sheets recently?
Shamrock Rovers have kept a clean sheet in 52% of their recent games, Cork City in 20%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Shamrock Rovers and Cork City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 19 September 2025, roughly 10 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Apr 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Shamrock Rovers's record when hosting Cork City specifically: 3W 1D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Shamrock Rovers
4
Draws
1
Cork City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Shamrock Rovers and Cork City?
From 8 meetings on record, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, Cork City have won 1, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Shamrock Rovers and Cork City last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2025, when Cork City 1-1 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Shamrock Rovers and Cork City?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Shamrock Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 92% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 42% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 17% of those situations.
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 83% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Shamrock Rovers 58%, Cork City 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 75% for Shamrock Rovers and 58% for Cork City. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 42% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Shamrock Rovers keep a clean sheet in 42% of their matches; Cork City in 50%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Shamrock Rovers home games / Cork City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Shamrock Rovers play Cork City?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 58% of Shamrock Rovers's recent matches and 42% of Cork City's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Shamrock Rovers vs Cork City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 75% of Shamrock Rovers's matches and 58% of Cork City's.
Do Shamrock Rovers and Cork City tend to score early?
Shamrock Rovers have had a goal before half-time in 92% of their recent matches, Cork City in 83% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Shamrock Rovers edge out Cork City 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Shamrock Rovers beat Cork City 2-1 at Tallaght Stadium, Regular Season - 26, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Shamrock Rovers 2.41 xG and Cork City 0.76 xG, a combined 3.17. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Shamrock Rovers attack 1.23 / defence 0.92 against Cork City attack 0.72 / defence 1.32, drawn from 61/25 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Shamrock Rovers 74% | Draw 16% | Cork City 10%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 74%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 61%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 83% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Shamrock Rovers 52%, Cork City 52%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 44%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (25 games, 12 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 40% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 52% of the time, and conceded here.
Cork City's trading profile (25 games, 12 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.88 PPG against 0.92. That form edge translated into the three points.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.