Finn Harps 1-1 Longford Town – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Finn Harps at 38% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Finn Harps face Longford Town.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Finn Park plays host to Finn Harps versus Longford Town in Premier Division (matchday 18). Kick-off: Friday 25 June 2021 at 21:00 UK time.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — across the 1 H2H match in our data, the wins are level at 0 apiece, with 1 draw. Neither side has a commanding advantage. With only 1 H2H match to go on, treat this as a light input.
Scoring has been limited in the 1 H2H match in our data, averaging 0.0 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 20 Apr 2021, ended Finn Harps 0–0 Longford Town — a draw.
With a balanced win record and just 0.0 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.16 xG and Longford Town 1.01 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.756 / defence 1.212 | Longford Town attack 0.637 / defence 1.551. League average goals — home 0.988 / away 1.305. Finn Harps's attack rating of 0.756 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.16. Longford Town's defence rating of 1.551 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Finn Harps's projected output up. Longford Town's attack rating of 0.637 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 1.01. Finn Harps's defence rating of 1.212 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Longford Town's projected output up. Data: built from Finn Harps's last 17 games and Longford Town's last 17.
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 38% | Draw 31% | Longford Town 31%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 2.60 | Draw 3.25 | Longford Town 3.24. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 37% | BTTS Yes probability 44% | Total xG 2.17. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 63% — total xG of 2.17 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS No at 56% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Finn Harps are the pick at 38% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 31% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Finn Harps if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.17 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 63% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Longford Town | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 18 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 25 June 2021 at 21:00 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 38% | Draw 31% | Longford Town 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 37% (Under 63%) | BTTS Yes 44% (No 56%) | xG Finn Harps 1.16 / Longford Town 1.01 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.756 / def 1.212 | Longford Town attack 0.637 / def 1.551 | league avg home 0.988 / away 1.305 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.16
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.01
Longford Town xG
44%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
37%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Finn Harps vs Longford Town FAQs
What time does Finn Harps vs Longford Town kick off?
Finn Harps vs Longford Town kicked off at 21:00 UK time on Friday 25 June 2021 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Finn Harps 1 - 1 Longford Town.
Where is Finn Harps vs Longford Town being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Longford Town part of?
Finn Harps vs Longford Town is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 18) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 38% chance of winning, Longford Town a 31% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Our model estimates a 44% probability that both Finn Harps and Longford Town will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (56%).
Will Finn Harps vs Longford Town have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 37%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (63%).
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Finn Harps's attacking strength (0.76x league average) is weighed against Longford Town's defensive record (1.55x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.16. Flip it around — Longford Town's attack (0.64x) against Finn Harps's defence (1.21x) — and the away total comes out at 1.01.
These ratings are built from Finn Harps's last 17 games and Longford Town's last 17 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 15.1%. Close behind: 0-0 (13.2%), 1-0 (11.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
38%
2.60
31%
3.25
31%
3.24
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.4%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
13.3%
Home win
0 – 1
11.6%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.16
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.17
1.01
Longford Town xG
2.60
38%
Home win
3.25
31%
Draw
3.24
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
64%
Over 1.5
1.56
36%
Under 1.5
2.78
37%
Over 2.5
2.70
63%
Under 2.5
1.59
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
44%
BTTS Yes
2.26
56%
BTTS No
1.80
Clean Sheet
36%
2.74
31%
3.18
Win to Nil
14%
7.13
10%
10.33
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.5 | 11.6 | 5.8 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.3 | 13.4 | 6.7 | 2.3 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 7.7 | 7.7 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.0 | 3.0 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Finn Harps vs Longford Town Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.1%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Longford Town expected to score?
The model projects 1.16 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.01 for Longford Town, a combined total of 2.17.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Longford Town?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
Longford Town
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
Finn Harps (Home) vs Longford Town (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Finn Harps
Pre-Season
Longford Town
Pre-Season
No results found for this venue split.
No results found for this venue split.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
We have 4 H2H matches between these sides on record, dating back to April 2021 — a small sample, so read the trends with care. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 19 November 2021, some 5 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
Finn Harps have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Finn Harps won Finn Harps 5-0 Longford Town on 19 Nov 2021, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Finn Harps have gone 1W 1D 0L from the 2 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against Longford Town — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 4 Meetings
2
Finn Harps
2
Draws
0
Longford Town
Recent Meetings
❓ Finn Harps vs Longford Town H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Longford Town?
Across the 4 head-to-head matches in our data, Finn Harps have won 2, Longford Town have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Longford Town last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 19 November 2021: Finn Harps 5-0 Longford Town.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Longford Town?
Finn Harps have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from the 4 head-to-head matches in our data.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Longford Town away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Finn Harps and Longford Town share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Finn Park, Regular Season - 18, as Finn Harps and Longford Town drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 1.16 xG and Longford Town 1.01 xG, a combined 2.17. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.76 / defence 1.21 against Longford Town attack 0.64 / defence 1.55, drawn from 17/17 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 38% | Draw 31% | Longford Town 31%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 38%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 37%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 64% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 44% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.