Finn Harps 2-2 Dundalk – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Finn Harps at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Finn Harps vs Dundalk encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 29 sees Dundalk travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps. The game is scheduled for Friday 1 October 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Finn Harps have gone 5W 1D 4L from 10 outings — a 1.60 PPG return. Last five: W W D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.20 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Finn Harps's home record at Finn Park: 2W 2D 6L from 10 Premier Division appearances (0.80 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture. Somewhat surprisingly, their home PPG of 0.80 lags behind their overall 1.60 — the home advantage has not translated into superior results at Finn Park this season.
Dundalk — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.00 PPG. Last five: D L L W W. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, Dundalk have gone 2W 3D 5L from 10 away fixtures this term (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
Finn Harps carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.60 vs 1.00. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
The BTTS market is worth targeting here. Finn Harps register both teams scoring in 70% of relevant matches, Dundalk in 60% (using home/away splits) — both sides above the 60% threshold gives BTTS Yes firm statistical grounding.
H2H
The H2H landscape is flat: 3 previous encounters have yielded 1 wins for Finn Harps, 1 for Dundalk and 1 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 3 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Jul 2021, ended 0–1 with Dundalk winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Patterns
Finn Harps in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at home): they score before half-time in 77% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 88% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (home games).
Dundalk in-play and half-time data (28 games, 13 at away): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 46% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Finn Harps 61% and Dundalk 71% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 54% | Dundalk 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.26 xG and Dundalk 1.09 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.904 / defence 1.236 | Dundalk attack 0.750 / defence 1.265. League average goals — home 1.103 / away 1.178. Dundalk bring a strong defensive rating of 1.265 — this is suppressing Finn Harps's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 28 Finn Harps games / 28 Dundalk games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 40% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 32%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 2.50 | Draw 3.57 | Dundalk 3.12. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.35. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.35 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Finn Harps as the most likely outcome at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Finn Harps offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.35 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. This conflicts with form data: Finn Harps 70% | Dundalk 60% from recent games — a notable divergence.
The outsider holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Dundalk | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 29 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 1 Oct 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 40% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 32% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG Finn Harps 1.26 / Dundalk 1.09 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.904 / def 1.236 | Dundalk attack 0.750 / def 1.265 | league avg home 1.103 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: Finn Harps (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.26
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.09
Dundalk xG
48%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs Dundalk kick off?
Finn Harps vs Dundalk kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 1 October 2021 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Finn Harps 2 - 2 Dundalk.
Where is Finn Harps vs Dundalk being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Dundalk part of?
Finn Harps vs Dundalk is a Regular Season - 29 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 40% chance of winning, Dundalk a 32% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Finn Harps the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Finn Harps and Dundalk will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs Dundalk have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Dundalk?
Record (3 meetings): Finn Harps 1W | Draws 1 | Dundalk 1W.
What form are Finn Harps and Dundalk in?
Finn Harps (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.20 | L5 W-W-D-L-W. Dundalk (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.60 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Finn Harps's attack at 0.90x the league average against Dundalk's defence at 1.26x — combine the two and it projects 1.26 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Dundalk's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.09 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 28/28 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (11.2%), 1-0 (10.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 36% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Finn Harps Win
40%
2.49
28%
3.59
32%
3.13
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.0%
Home win
0 – 1
10.4%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.26
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.35
1.09
Dundalk xG
2.49
40%
Home win
3.59
28%
Draw
3.13
32%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
34%
2.98
28%
3.53
Win to Nil
14%
7.40
9%
11.06
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.5 | 10.4 | 5.7 | 2.1 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.0 | 13.1 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.6 | 8.3 | 4.5 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.2 | 3.5 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Dundalk expected to score?
The model projects 1.26 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.09 for Dundalk, a combined total of 2.35.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Dundalk?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 28 outings, Finn Harps have picked up 1.29 PPG on a 10W 6D 12L record — W-W-D-L-W across the most recent five.
Dundalk's form line: 9W 7D 12L from 28 games, 1.21 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W.
Form-wise this is close to level: Finn Harps on 1.29 PPG, Dundalk on 1.21. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
On home soil, Finn Harps have posted 1.08 PPG from 13 outings (4W 2D 7L).
On the road, Dundalk have gone 3W 4D 6L from 13 away games — 1.00 PPG when travelling.
Goals in Recent Form
Finn Harps are averaging 1.11 goals scored and 1.36 conceded per game recently; Dundalk are on 1.25 scored and 1.43 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Finn Harps have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Dundalk in 71%.
Last 28 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Current Season
Dundalk
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Finn Harps and Dundalk in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 10W 6D 12L in their last 28 games (1.29 PPG), while Dundalk have gone 9W 7D 12L in their last 28 (1.21 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or Dundalk away?
Finn Harps's home record (1.08 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 1.08 PPG; Dundalk away: 1.00 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 14 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Streaks & Records
Dundalk have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 28 Feb 2022, when Dundalk won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Dundalk specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Finn Harps
2
Draws
5
Dundalk
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Dundalk?
From 8 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 1, Dundalk have won 5, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Dundalk last play each other?
They last met on 14 October 2022, when Finn Harps 1-2 Dundalk.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Dundalk?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 77% of their matches.
Dundalk are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 15% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 62%, Dundalk 62% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 46% (Finn Harps) and 46% (Dundalk).
On the defensive side: Finn Harps have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Dundalk away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Finn Harps play Dundalk?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Finn Harps's games and 62% of Dundalk's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Finn Harps vs Dundalk usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 46% of Finn Harps's recent games and 46% of Dundalk's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and Dundalk tend to score early?
Finn Harps have had a goal before half-time in 77% of their recent matches, Dundalk in 85% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Finn Harps and Dundalk share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Finn Harps and Dundalk finished level at 2-2 at Finn Park, Regular Season - 29, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 1.26 xG and Dundalk 1.09 xG, a combined 2.35. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Dundalk outscored their 1.09 projection by 0.9. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.90 / defence 1.24 against Dundalk attack 0.75 / defence 1.26, drawn from 28/28 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 40% | Draw 28% | Dundalk 32%, with Finn Harps to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 54% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 54%, Dundalk 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 66%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (28 games, 13 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Dundalk's trading profile (28 games, 13 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 71% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Finn Harps 1.29 PPG, Dundalk 1.21 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Finn Harps (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.00 average — above their attacking norm. Dundalk (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.15 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.