Finn Harps 1-1 Derry City – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Derry City at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this Finn Harps vs Derry City fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Derry City travel to Finn Park to take on Finn Harps. The game is scheduled for Friday 5 November 2021, 20:00 UTC.
Form Guide
Finn Harps — All Games: 3W 4D 3L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.30 points per game. Last five: D L D L D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.80 conceded. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone.
In front of their own supporters this season, Finn Harps have posted 2W 4D 4L at Finn Park — 1.00 PPG. At home they are averaging 1.30 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 80% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Derry City have recorded 4W 4D 2L from 10 outings — 1.60 PPG. Last five: L W L D D. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.20. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Derry City away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Finn Harps 1.30 PPG, Derry City 1.60 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
Both teams score in over 70% of each side's relevant games (using home/away splits). At that combined rate, BTTS Yes is as well-evidenced as it gets — the data strongly backs two-way scoring.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 1 wins apiece for Finn Harps, 1 for Derry City and 1 shared spoils from 3 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 3 meetings have averaged 3.3 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 10 Sep 2021, ended 2–2 with a draw.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.3 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
Derry City in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 81% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 70% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
From a combined perspective, both sides have high BTTS rates — Finn Harps 61% and Derry City 61% — which reinforces the BTTS Yes angle from in-play data. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Finn Harps 58% | Derry City 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Finn Harps 1.28 xG and Derry City 1.40 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Finn Harps attack 0.948 / defence 1.243 | Derry City attack 0.959 / defence 1.262. League average goals — home 1.066 / away 1.176. Derry City bring a strong defensive rating of 1.262 — this is suppressing Finn Harps's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 33 Finn Harps games / 33 Derry City games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Finn Harps 34% | Draw 26% | Derry City 40%. Fair-value odds: Finn Harps 2.94 | Draw 3.85 | Derry City 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 26% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 54% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 54% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Derry City are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. With a 26% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Derry City offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.68 combined xG gives a 50% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 2.8 goals per game and H2H averaging 3.3 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 54% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Finn Harps 80% | Derry City 70% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 34% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Finn Harps vs Derry City | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Finn Park • Kick-off: Friday 5 Nov 2021, 20:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Finn Harps 34% | Draw 26% | Derry City 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 54% | xG Finn Harps 1.28 / Derry City 1.40 • Poisson strength factors: Finn Harps attack 0.948 / def 1.243 | Derry City attack 0.959 / def 1.262 | league avg home 1.066 / away 1.176 • Poisson stance: Derry City (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
Finn Harps xG
Expected Goals
1.40
Derry City xG
54%
BTTS
75%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Finn Harps vs Derry City kick off?
Finn Harps vs Derry City kicked off at 20:00 on Friday 5 November 2021 at Finn Park.
What was the final score in Finn Harps vs Derry City?
Finn Harps 1 - 1 Derry City.
Where is Finn Harps vs Derry City being played?
The match is being played at Finn Park.
What competition is Finn Harps vs Derry City part of?
Finn Harps vs Derry City is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Finn Harps vs Derry City?
Our statistical model gives Finn Harps a 34% chance of winning, Derry City a 40% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Derry City the favourite.
Will both teams score in Finn Harps vs Derry City?
Our model estimates a 54% probability that both Finn Harps and Derry City will score (BTTS).
Will Finn Harps vs Derry City have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Derry City?
Record (3 meetings): Finn Harps 1W | Draws 1 | Derry City 1W.
What form are Finn Harps and Derry City in?
Finn Harps (all comps): 3W-4D-3L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.80 | L5 D-L-D-L-D. Derry City (all comps): 4W-4D-2L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Finn Harps's attack rating (0.95) and Derry City's defence rating (1.26), the model arrives at 1.28 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Derry City's attack versus Finn Harps's defence, projects 1.40 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.9%. Close behind: 1-2 (8.6%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Derry City Win
34%
2.93
26%
3.86
40%
2.50
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
9.6%
Away win
1 – 0
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
Finn Harps xG
Total xG
2.68
1.40
Derry City xG
2.93
34%
Home win
3.86
26%
Draw
2.50
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
54%
BTTS Yes
1.84
46%
BTTS No
2.19
Clean Sheet
25%
4.06
28%
3.58
Win to Nil
8%
11.90
11%
8.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 9.6 | 6.8 | 3.2 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 8.8 | 12.3 | 8.6 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.6 | 7.8 | 5.5 | 2.6 | 0.9 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 3.3 | 2.3 | 1.1 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.8 | 1.1 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Finn Harps vs Derry City?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are Finn Harps and Derry City expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for Finn Harps and 1.40 for Derry City, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for Finn Harps vs Derry City?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 33 outings, Finn Harps have picked up 1.18 PPG on a 10W 9D 14L record — D-L-D-L-D across the most recent five.
Derry City's form line: 12W 11D 10L from 33 games, 1.42 PPG, last five L-W-L-D-D.
Form-wise this is close to level: Finn Harps on 1.18 PPG, Derry City on 1.42. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Finn Harps have posted 1.06 PPG from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L).
On the road, Derry City have gone 7W 3D 6L from 16 away games — 1.50 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Derry City come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Finn Harps are averaging 1.09 goals scored and 1.48 conceded per game recently; Derry City are on 1.33 scored and 1.21 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Finn Harps have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games; Derry City in 61%.
Last 33 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Finn Harps
Current Season
Derry City
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Finn Harps and Derry City in coming into this match?
Finn Harps have gone 10W 9D 14L in their last 33 games (1.18 PPG), while Derry City have gone 12W 11D 10L in their last 33 (1.42 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Finn Harps at home or Derry City away?
Derry City's away record (1.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Finn Harps at home: 1.06 PPG; Derry City away: 1.50 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Finn Harps and Derry City runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 7 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
Derry City have won the last 2 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 7 Oct 2022, when Derry City won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Finn Harps's record when hosting Derry City specifically: 0W 1D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Finn Harps
3
Draws
4
Derry City
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Finn Harps and Derry City?
From 8 meetings on record, Finn Harps have won 1, Derry City have won 4, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Finn Harps and Derry City last play each other?
They last met on 7 October 2022, when Derry City 3-0 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Finn Harps and Derry City?
Derry City have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Derry City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 81% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Finn Harps 62%, Derry City 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (Finn Harps) and 50% (Derry City).
On the defensive side: Finn Harps have failed to score in 31% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Finn Harps home games / Derry City away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Finn Harps play Derry City?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Finn Harps's games and 56% of Derry City's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Finn Harps vs Derry City usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of Finn Harps's recent games and 50% of Derry City's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Finn Harps and Derry City tend to score early?
Finn Harps have had a goal before half-time in 69% of their recent matches, Derry City in 81% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Finn Harps and Derry City share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Finn Park, Regular Season - 34, as Finn Harps and Derry City drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Finn Harps 1.28 xG and Derry City 1.40 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Finn Harps attack 0.95 / defence 1.24 against Derry City attack 0.96 / defence 1.26, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Finn Harps 34% | Draw 26% | Derry City 40%, with Derry City to win its most likely call at 40%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 26%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 75% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 54% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Finn Harps 58%, Derry City 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 61%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Finn Harps's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Derry City's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Finn Harps 1.18 PPG, Derry City 1.42 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.