Dundalk 1-0 Sligo Rovers – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Dundalk at 55% — the H2H record provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Oriel Park plays host to Dundalk versus Sligo Rovers in Premier Division, Regular Season - 7. Kick-off: Monday 16 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form & Momentum
Dundalk have collected 0.30 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 0W 3D 7L. Last five: L D L L D. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 1.40 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Dundalk haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Dundalk at Oriel Park this season: 2W 1D 7L from 10 home games — 0.70 PPG on home soil. At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Sligo Rovers's overall Premier Division record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: W L L D W. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.10 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Sligo Rovers away from home this season: 4W 1D 5L from 10 away games — 1.30 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context.
On a straight form reading, Sligo Rovers are the stronger side — 1.20 PPG clear of the hosts (1.50 vs 0.30). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
H2H Analysis
The head-to-head record is closely matched — Dundalk lead 4W to 2W over the last 7 encounters, with 1 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 21 Sep 2024, ended 1–2 with Sligo Rovers winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading & In-Play
Dundalk — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 60% of the time; BTTS occurs in 11% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 17% of games (home games); they fail to score in 53% of games.
Sligo Rovers — key trading statistics (36 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 61% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Dundalk 39% versus Sligo Rovers 53%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Dundalk 28% | Sligo Rovers 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Dundalk 1.57 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.83 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Dundalk attack 1.170 / defence 0.978 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.797 / defence 0.926. League average goals — home 1.451 / away 1.061. Data: 6 Dundalk games / 42 Sligo Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Dundalk 55% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 20%. Fair-value odds: Dundalk 1.82 | Draw 4.00 | Sligo Rovers 5.00. The model has a clear lean to Dundalk (55%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 43% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.40. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 57% — total xG of 2.40 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
Dundalk dominate the H2H record, yet Sligo Rovers are the in-form side right now — historical edge versus current momentum creates a genuine dilemma.
On the Poisson output, Dundalk are the pick at 55% — clear model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Sligo Rovers (1.50 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 25% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.40 combined xG gives a 43% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: Dundalk 20% | Sligo Rovers 60% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 7 | Venue: Oriel Park • Kick-off: Monday 16 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Dundalk 55% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 20% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 43% | BTTS 45% | xG Dundalk 1.57 / Sligo Rovers 0.83 • Poisson strength factors: Dundalk attack 1.170 / def 0.978 | Sligo Rovers attack 0.797 / def 0.926 | league avg home 1.451 / away 1.061 • Poisson stance: Dundalk (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.57
Dundalk xG
Expected Goals
0.83
Sligo Rovers xG
45%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
43%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kick off?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 16 March 2026 at Oriel Park.
What was the final score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk 1 - 0 Sligo Rovers.
Where is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Oriel Park.
What competition is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers part of?
Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers is a Regular Season - 7 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Dundalk a 55% chance of winning, Sligo Rovers a 20% chance, and a 25% chance of a draw — making Dundalk the favourite.
Will both teams score in Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Dundalk and Sligo Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 43%.
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
Record (7 meetings): Dundalk 4W | Draws 1 | Sligo Rovers 2W.
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in?
Dundalk (all comps): 0W-3D-7L in 10 | 0.30 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 1.40 | L5 L-D-L-L-D. Sligo Rovers (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.10 | L5 W-L-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Dundalk's attacking strength (1.17x league average) is weighed against Sligo Rovers's defensive record (0.93x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.57. Flip it around — Sligo Rovers's attack (0.80x) against Dundalk's defence (0.98x) — and the away total comes out at 0.83.
These ratings are built from 6/42 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 13.3%. Close behind: 1-0 (12.7%), 2-0 (11.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Dundalk Win
55%
1.82
25%
3.93
20%
5.08
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.3%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.8%
Draw
2 – 0
11.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.57
Dundalk xG
Total xG
2.40
0.83
Sligo Rovers xG
1.82
55%
Home win
3.93
25%
Draw
5.08
20%
Away win
Goals Markets
69%
Over 1.5
1.45
31%
Under 1.5
3.23
43%
Over 2.5
2.33
57%
Under 2.5
1.75
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
10%
Over 4.5
10.00
90%
Under 4.5
1.11
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.24
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
44%
2.29
21%
4.81
Win to Nil
24%
4.17
4%
24.46
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.1 | 7.5 | 3.1 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 14.3 | 11.8 | 4.9 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 11.2 | 9.3 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 5.9 | 4.9 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.3 | 1.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.3%.
How many goals are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.57 expected goals for Dundalk and 0.83 for Sligo Rovers, a combined total of 2.40.
How confident is the prediction model for Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Dundalk's recent record stands at 5W 11D 20L from 36 games, a 0.72 PPG return, with L-D-L-L-D in the last five. Dundalk haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Sligo Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 11W 8D 17L across 36 games — 1.14 PPG, with W-L-L-D-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Sligo Rovers by 0.42 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Dundalk heading into this one.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, Dundalk have managed 4W 5D 9L from 18 games — 0.94 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Sligo Rovers's away record stands at 6W 2D 10L across 18 trips, a 1.11 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Dundalk are averaging 0.64 goals scored and 1.39 conceded per game recently; Sligo Rovers are on 1.17 scored and 1.50 conceded.
Last 36 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Dundalk
Pre-Season
Sligo Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Dundalk and Sligo Rovers in coming into this match?
Dundalk have gone 5W 11D 20L in their last 36 games (0.72 PPG), while Sligo Rovers have gone 11W 8D 17L in their last 36 (1.14 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Dundalk at home or Sligo Rovers away?
Sligo Rovers's away record (1.11 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Dundalk at home: 0.94 PPG; Sligo Rovers away: 1.11 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since May 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 31 July 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Sligo Rovers won 0-5 on 4 Mar 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Dundalk have gone 3W 1D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Sligo Rovers — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
5
Dundalk
2
Draws
3
Sligo Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
From 10 meetings on record, Dundalk have won 5, Sligo Rovers have won 3, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Dundalk and Sligo Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 31 July 2026, when Dundalk 1-1 Sligo Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Dundalk and Sligo Rovers?
Dundalk have the better head-to-head record, with 5 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Dundalk see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Sligo Rovers are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
Neither side has been leaking BTTS chances often — 11% (Dundalk) and 50% (Sligo Rovers) both sit on the low side, favouring BTTS No.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 17% (Dundalk) and 61% (Sligo Rovers).
On the defensive side: Dundalk keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Dundalk have failed to score in 72% of games; Sligo Rovers in 33%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Dundalk home games / Sligo Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Dundalk play Sligo Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 11% of Dundalk's recent matches and 50% of Sligo Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Dundalk vs Sligo Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 17% of Dundalk's recent games and 61% of Sligo Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Dundalk and Sligo Rovers tend to score early?
Dundalk have had a goal before half-time in 44% of their recent matches, Sligo Rovers in 78% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Dundalk edge out Sligo Rovers 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Dundalk beat Sligo Rovers 1-0 at Oriel Park, Regular Season - 7, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Dundalk 1.57 xG and Sligo Rovers 0.83 xG, a combined 2.40. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Sligo Rovers landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Dundalk attack 1.17 / defence 0.98 against Sligo Rovers attack 0.80 / defence 0.93, drawn from 6/42 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Dundalk 55% | Draw 25% | Sligo Rovers 20%, with Dundalk to win its most likely call at 55%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 43%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 39% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Dundalk 28%, Sligo Rovers 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Dundalk's trading profile (36 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 39% of their matches — today it did not.
Sligo Rovers's trading profile (36 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 53% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 31% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Sligo Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.14 PPG against 0.72. Form was overturned, with Dundalk winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Dundalk (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.17 average — tighter than their form line. Sligo Rovers (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.28 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 1 against a 1.83 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.