Drogheda United 3-1 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 43%, yet other data sources diverge — this Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 11 sees St Patrick's Athl. travel to Head in the Game Park to take on Drogheda United. The game is scheduled for Friday 14 May 2021, 19:45 UTC.
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 0.70 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.11 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 0.895 / defence 1.001 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.852 / defence 0.987. League average goals — home 0.798 / away 1.303. Data: 10 Drogheda United games / 10 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Drogheda United 21% | Draw 36% | St Patrick's Athl. 43%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 4.76 | Draw 2.78 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 27% | BTTS probability 36% | Total xG 1.82. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 73% probability — total xG of 1.82 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 36% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 43% — marginal model lean. With a 36% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
On the goals line, Poisson's 1.82 combined xG gives a 27% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 11 | Venue: Head in the Game Park • Kick-off: Friday 14 May 2021, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Drogheda United 21% | Draw 36% | St Patrick's Athl. 43% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 27% | BTTS 36% | xG Drogheda United 0.70 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.11 • Poisson strength factors: Drogheda United attack 0.895 / def 1.001 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.852 / def 0.987 | league avg home 0.798 / away 1.303 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (43%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.70
Drogheda United xG
Expected Goals
1.11
St Patrick's Athl. xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
27%
Over 2.5
11%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 14 May 2021 at Head in the Game Park.
What was the final score in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Drogheda United 3 - 1 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Head in the Game Park.
What competition is Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 11 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Drogheda United a 21% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 43% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 27%.
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Form data is not yet available for either side.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Drogheda United's attacking strength (0.90x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (0.99x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 0.70. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Drogheda United's defence, projects 1.11 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 10/10 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.9%. Close behind: 0-1 (16.4%), 1-1 (14.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 49% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
21%
4.75
36%
2.78
43%
2.33
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
18.1%
Away win
Most likely
0 – 0
16.3%
Draw
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.70
Drogheda United xG
Total xG
1.82
1.11
St Patrick's Athl. xG
4.75
21%
Home win
2.78
36%
Draw
2.33
43%
Away win
Goals Markets
54%
Over 1.5
1.85
46%
Under 1.5
2.17
27%
Over 2.5
3.70
73%
Under 2.5
1.37
11%
Over 3.5
9.09
89%
Under 3.5
1.12
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.78
64%
BTTS No
1.56
Clean Sheet
33%
3.04
49%
2.02
Win to Nil
7%
14.42
21%
4.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 16.3 | 18.1 | 10.0 | 3.7 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 11.5 | 12.7 | 7.1 | 2.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 4.0 | 4.5 | 2.5 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.0 | 1.1 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
| 5 | – | – | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.9%.
How many goals are Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 0.70 expected goals for Drogheda United and 1.11 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.82.
How confident is the prediction model for Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 43%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
Last 0 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Drogheda United
Pre-Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Pre-Season
No results found.
No results found.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 12 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Digging Into the Numbers
St Patrick's Athl. have won the last 4 meetings between these two, a run that gives them the psychological edge coming in.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 1 Sep 2024, when St Patrick's Athl. won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Drogheda United's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 0W 2D 2L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
0
Drogheda United
4
Draws
6
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Drogheda United have won 0, St Patrick's Athl. have won 6, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 12 June 2026, when St Patrick's Athl. 2-0 Drogheda United.
Who has won more matches between Drogheda United and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from 10 meetings.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Drogheda United home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
Drogheda United cruise to a comfortable 3-1 victory over St Patrick's Athl..
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Drogheda United beat St Patrick's Athl. 3-1 at Head in the Game Park, Regular Season - 11, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Drogheda United 0.70 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.11 xG, a combined 1.82. The scoreboard read 3-1 for 4 actual goals. Drogheda United beat their projection by 2.3 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Drogheda United attack 0.90 / defence 1.00 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.85 / defence 0.99, drawn from 10/10 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Drogheda United 21% | Draw 36% | St Patrick's Athl. 43%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 43%. Instead the game produced a Drogheda United win, an outcome the model had rated at just 21% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 27%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 11% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.