Drogheda United 0-0 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis

Poisson model rates Drogheda United at 41%, yet in-form St Patrick's Athl. provide a compelling counter-argument — this Drogheda United vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.

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Analysis & Preview

St Patrick's Athl. travel to Weavers Park to take on Drogheda United in Premier Division (matchday 11). The game is scheduled for Monday 21 April 2025 at 18:00 UK time.

Recent Form

Across their last 10 games, Drogheda United have gone 4W 3D 3L — a 1.50 PPG return. Last five: D L L D W. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches.

Drogheda United's home record over their last 10 home games: 3W 5D 2L (1.40 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from their last 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at home. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.

Looking at their last 10 matches, St Patrick's Athl. stand at 9W 1D 0L — 2.80 PPG. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.70 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.

St Patrick's Athl.'s away record over their last 10 away games: 5W 4D 1L (1.90 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 1.90 is notably below their overall 2.80 — form away from home has been a clear weakness recently.

Form points away from home here. St Patrick's Athl.'s 2.80 PPG return is 1.30 points per game ahead of Drogheda United's 1.50 — the visitors are the form-based selection, and Double Chance is an alternative worth pricing if the outright looks tight.

Head to Head

The H2H picture is flat: the 3 H2H matches we hold have produced 0 wins for Drogheda United, 1 for St Patrick's Athl. and 2 draws. Form and model data should carry more weight here. With only 3 H2H matches to go on, treat this as a light input.

Scoring has been limited in the 3 H2H matches in our data, averaging 1.7 goals per game, which makes Under 2.5 the head-to-head-backed angle in the goals market. The most recent of those, on 14 Feb 2025, ended Drogheda United 0–0 St Patrick's Athl. — a draw.

With a balanced win record and just 1.7 goals per game, the H2H data points toward a tight, low-scoring contest — Under 2.5 is the stronger head-to-head angle regardless of which side wins.

In-Play Profile

Drogheda United in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 56% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; of the 14 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 36%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); Over 3.5 in 36%; they fail to score in 33% of games.

St Patrick's Athl. in-play tendencies (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; of the 17 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 35%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (away games).

BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Drogheda United 57% versus St Patrick's Athl. 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Drogheda United 56% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%). There is an in-play dynamic worth noting: Drogheda United surrender their half-time lead 36% of the time, while St Patrick's Athl. have come from behind at the break to draw or win in 35% of cases — a combination that makes laying the hosts at HT a potential angle.

Poisson Model

The Poisson distribution model projects Drogheda United 1.34 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.16 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Drogheda United attack 1.197 / defence 0.900 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.029 / defence 0.886. League average goals — home 1.265 / away 1.256. Data: built from Drogheda United's last 46 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 46.

Result probabilities: Drogheda United 41% | Draw 27% | St Patrick's Athl. 32%. Fair-value odds: Drogheda United 2.46 | Draw 3.69 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.10. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 27% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.

Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS Yes probability 51% | Total xG 2.50. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.50 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS Yes at 51% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.

Our Verdict

Poisson rates Drogheda United as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form St Patrick's Athl. (2.80 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — the model adjusts for opposition strength, which raw form results do not. With a 27% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Drogheda United offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 32% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.

On the goals line, Poisson's 2.50 combined xG gives a 54% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by the H2H data averaging 1.7 goals per game across 3 H2H matches.

Poisson assigns a 51% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Drogheda United 30% (last 10 home games) | St Patrick's Athl. 60% (last 10 away games).

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