Cork City 1-1 Shamrock Rovers – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shamrock Rovers at 44% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 13 sees Shamrock Rovers travel to Turners Cross to take on Cork City. The game is scheduled for Friday 2 May 2025, 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Cork City have gone 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — a 0.70 PPG return. Last five: W L D L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. Cork City haven't played a Premier Division game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Cork City's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Turners Cross this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.20 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.70 — Cork City are significantly better at Turners Cross than their overall form suggests.
Shamrock Rovers — All Games: 7W 1D 2L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 2.20 PPG. Last five: L W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 0.80. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Shamrock Rovers's away record: 5W 1D 4L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (1.60 PPG). Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 1.60 is notably below their overall 2.20 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Shamrock Rovers are 1.50 PPG ahead (2.20 vs 0.70), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 5 previous meetings, Cork City have won 1, Shamrock Rovers 2, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 5 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.4 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 14 Apr 2025, ended 1–4 with Shamrock Rovers winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.4 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Data
Cork City trading profile (37 games, 18 at home): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 89% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 39% of games (home games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
Shamrock Rovers trading profile (37 games, 18 at away): they score before half-time in 44% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 53% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Cork City 46% versus Shamrock Rovers 54%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Cork City 54% | Shamrock Rovers 49%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Cork City 1.08 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.42 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Cork City attack 0.889 / defence 1.120 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.044 / defence 0.896. League average goals — home 1.350 / away 1.212. Data: 12 Cork City games / 48 Shamrock Rovers games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Cork City 27% | Draw 29% | Shamrock Rovers 44%. Fair-value odds: Cork City 3.70 | Draw 3.45 | Shamrock Rovers 2.27. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 29% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 45% | BTTS probability 51% | Total xG 2.49. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 55% — total xG of 2.49 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 51% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shamrock Rovers are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 29% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Shamrock Rovers offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 2.49 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 45% — marginal — conflicting signals confidence, supported by form averaging 2.0 goals per game — though H2H averaging only 3.4 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 51% on Yes. Form rates are neutral: Cork City 40% | Shamrock Rovers 50%.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 13 | Venue: Turners Cross • Kick-off: Friday 2 May 2025, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Cork City 27% | Draw 29% | Shamrock Rovers 44% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 45% | BTTS 51% | xG Cork City 1.08 / Shamrock Rovers 1.42 • Poisson strength factors: Cork City attack 0.889 / def 1.120 | Shamrock Rovers attack 1.044 / def 0.896 | league avg home 1.350 / away 1.212 • Poisson stance: Shamrock Rovers (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.08
Cork City xG
Expected Goals
1.42
Shamrock Rovers xG
51%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
45%
Over 2.5
24%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers kick off?
Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 2 May 2025 at Turners Cross.
What was the final score in Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Cork City 1 - 1 Shamrock Rovers.
Where is Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers being played?
The match is being played at Turners Cross.
What competition is Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers part of?
Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers is a Regular Season - 13 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our statistical model gives Cork City a 27% chance of winning, Shamrock Rovers a 44% chance, and a 29% chance of a draw — making Shamrock Rovers the favourite.
Will both teams score in Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our model estimates a 51% probability that both Cork City and Shamrock Rovers will score (BTTS).
Will Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 45%.
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Shamrock Rovers?
Record (5 meetings): Cork City 1W | Draws 2 | Shamrock Rovers 2W.
What form are Cork City and Shamrock Rovers in?
Cork City (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L. Shamrock Rovers (all comps): 7W-1D-2L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 0.80 | L5 L-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Cork City's attacking strength (0.89x league average) is weighed against Shamrock Rovers's defensive record (0.90x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.08. The same calculation in reverse, Shamrock Rovers's attack versus Cork City's defence, projects 1.42 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 12/48 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.2%. Close behind: 0-1 (10.1%), 0-0 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 34% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shamrock Rovers Win
27%
3.64
29%
3.47
44%
2.29
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.6%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.7%
Away win
1 – 0
8.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.08
Cork City xG
Total xG
2.49
1.42
Shamrock Rovers xG
3.64
27%
Home win
3.47
29%
Draw
2.29
44%
Away win
Goals Markets
71%
Over 1.5
1.41
29%
Under 1.5
3.45
45%
Over 2.5
2.22
55%
Under 2.5
1.82
24%
Over 3.5
4.17
76%
Under 3.5
1.32
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
51%
BTTS Yes
1.96
49%
BTTS No
2.04
Clean Sheet
24%
4.13
34%
2.93
Win to Nil
7%
15.02
15%
6.71
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.3 | 11.7 | 8.3 | 3.9 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 8.9 | 12.6 | 8.9 | 4.2 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.8 | 4.8 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.4 | 1.7 | 0.8 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.2%.
How many goals are Cork City and Shamrock Rovers expected to score?
The model projects 1.08 expected goals for Cork City and 1.42 for Shamrock Rovers, a combined total of 2.49.
How confident is the prediction model for Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Cork City's recent record stands at 8W 7D 22L from 37 games, a 0.84 PPG return, with W-L-D-L-L in the last five. Cork City haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Shamrock Rovers, meanwhile, have gone 18W 10D 9L across 37 games — 1.73 PPG, with L-W-W-W-W in their last five.
The points-per-game comparison favours Shamrock Rovers by 0.89 — a real, if not enormous, edge over Cork City heading into this one.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Cork City have managed 6W 4D 8L from 18 games — 1.22 PPG in front of their own supporters.
Shamrock Rovers's away record stands at 8W 4D 6L across 18 trips, a 1.56 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Cork City are averaging 0.97 goals scored and 1.78 conceded per game recently; Shamrock Rovers are on 1.46 scored and 1.00 conceded.
Defensively: Shamrock Rovers in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 37 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Cork City
Pre-Season
Shamrock Rovers
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Cork City and Shamrock Rovers in coming into this match?
Cork City have gone 8W 7D 22L in their last 37 games (0.84 PPG), while Shamrock Rovers have gone 18W 10D 9L in their last 37 (1.73 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Cork City at home or Shamrock Rovers away?
Shamrock Rovers's away record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Cork City at home: 1.22 PPG; Shamrock Rovers away: 1.56 PPG.
Have Cork City or Shamrock Rovers been keeping clean sheets recently?
Cork City have kept a clean sheet in 22% of their recent games, Shamrock Rovers in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
8 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to March 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. They last met on 19 September 2025, roughly 12 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Apr 2025, when Shamrock Rovers won 4-1 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Cork City's record when hosting Shamrock Rovers specifically: 1W 3D 0L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
Cork City
4
Draws
3
Shamrock Rovers
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Cork City and Shamrock Rovers?
From 8 meetings on record, Cork City have won 1, Shamrock Rovers have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Cork City and Shamrock Rovers last play each other?
They last met on 19 September 2025, when Cork City 1-1 Shamrock Rovers.
Who has won more matches between Cork City and Shamrock Rovers?
Shamrock Rovers have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Cork City are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time.
Shamrock Rovers see a goal before the break in 44% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Cork City 44%, Shamrock Rovers 56% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 39% (Cork City) and 44% (Shamrock Rovers).
On the defensive side: Cork City keep a clean sheet in 33% of their matches; Shamrock Rovers in 33%; Cork City have failed to score in 28% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Cork City home games / Shamrock Rovers away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Cork City play Shamrock Rovers?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Cork City's recent matches and 56% of Shamrock Rovers's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Cork City vs Shamrock Rovers usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 39% of Cork City's recent games and 44% of Shamrock Rovers's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Cork City and Shamrock Rovers tend to score early?
Cork City have had a goal before half-time in 67% of their recent matches, Shamrock Rovers in 44% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Cork City and Shamrock Rovers share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Cork City and Shamrock Rovers finished level at 1-1 at Turners Cross, Regular Season - 13, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Cork City 1.08 xG and Shamrock Rovers 1.42 xG, a combined 2.49. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Cork City attack 0.89 / defence 1.12 against Shamrock Rovers attack 1.04 / defence 0.90, drawn from 12/48 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Cork City 27% | Draw 29% | Shamrock Rovers 44%, with Shamrock Rovers to win its most likely call at 44%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 45%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 51% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Cork City 54%, Shamrock Rovers 49%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Cork City's trading profile (37 games, 18 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did.
Shamrock Rovers's trading profile (37 games, 18 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 35% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
On form, Shamrock Rovers arrived the stronger side — 1.73 PPG against 0.84. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.