Bohemians 2-0 UCD – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours Bohemians (83%) — recent form and the head-to-head data both point the same way as Bohemians face UCD.
✍️ Match Preview
Pre-Match Analysis
Bohemians and UCD meet at Dalymount Park in Premier Division (matchday 25). This fixture gets under way on Friday 28 July 2023 at 20:45 UK time.
Current Form
Bohemians's record over their last 10 games: 2W 5D 3L (1.10 PPG). Last five: D D L W D. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%). Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
At home, Bohemians have gone 5W 2D 3L in their last 10 home games (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.10 — Bohemians are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
UCD have collected 0.30 PPG across their last 10 games: 1W 0D 9L. Last five: L W L L L. Their scoring rate of 0.70 per game is modest, conceding 3.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 3.60 per game is a high rate — their defence has been exposed regularly. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
On the road, UCD have gone 0W 0D 10L in their last 10 away fixtures (0.00 PPG). Away from home they average 0.50 goals scored and 3.40 conceded per game.
Form favours the hosts. Bohemians's 1.10 PPG return is 0.80 points per game ahead of UCD's 0.30 — a genuine gap in recent results that provides a statistically grounded case for backing the home side.
H2H History
Across the 6 H2H matches in our data, Bohemians have had the better of this match-up — 4 wins, with UCD managing 0 and 2 draws.
The 6 H2H matches in our data averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that gives no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent of those, on 28 Apr 2023, ended Bohemians 1–1 UCD — a draw.
The head-to-head data gives Bohemians an edge — 4 wins from 6 H2H matches is worth weighing, particularly if the form picture is inconclusive.
Trading & In-Play
Bohemians — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 72% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 90% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; of the 21 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 33%; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 59% of games (home games).
UCD — key trading statistics (last 60 games, 29 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 90% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 79% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 4 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 25%; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); they fail to score in 48% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 57% versus UCD 45%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 47% | UCD 55%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 3.18 xG and UCD 0.84 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.207 / defence 1.037 | UCD attack 0.724 / defence 1.758. League average goals — home 1.497 / away 1.121. UCD's defence rating of 1.758 (above 1 = concedes more than average) is pushing Bohemians's projected output up. UCD's attack rating of 0.724 is below the league average, which holds their xG down at 0.84. Data: built from Bohemians's last 60 games and UCD's last 60.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 83% | Draw 11% | UCD 7%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.21 | Draw 9.13 | UCD 15.36. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (83%) — a 72pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 76% | BTTS Yes probability 55% | Total xG 4.02. Over 2.5 is the model's clear signal at 76% — a total xG of 4.02 means the expected score alone exceeds the 2.5 threshold, making the Over not just likely but structurally supported by both sides' attack/defence profiles. BTTS Yes at 55% is only a slight lean — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 83% — clear model lean. Recent form and the head-to-head data both align with the Poisson read — multi-source corroboration increases confidence in this selection.
On the goals line, Poisson's 4.02 combined xG gives a 76% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable conviction, supported by recent form (Bohemians's last 10 home games and UCD's last 10 away games) averaging 3.5 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 55%. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bohemians 50% (last 10 home games) | UCD 50% (last 10 away games).
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs UCD | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 25 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 28 July 2023 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 83% | Draw 11% | UCD 7% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 76% (Under 24%) | BTTS Yes 55% (No 45%) | xG Bohemians 3.18 / UCD 0.84 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.207 / def 1.037 | UCD attack 0.724 / def 1.758 | league avg home 1.497 / away 1.121 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (83%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
3.18
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.84
UCD xG
55%
BTTS
91%
Over 1.5
76%
Over 2.5
57%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs UCD FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs UCD kick off?
Bohemians vs UCD kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 28 July 2023 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs UCD?
Bohemians 2 - 0 UCD.
Where is Bohemians vs UCD being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs UCD part of?
Bohemians vs UCD is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 25) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs UCD?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 83% chance of winning, UCD a 7% chance, and a 11% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs UCD?
Our model estimates a 55% probability that both Bohemians and UCD will score, so it leans towards BTTS Yes.
Will Bohemians vs UCD have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 76%, so it leans towards over 2.5 goals.
🧮 Model Insight
Where the Numbers Come From
Bohemians's attacking strength (1.21x league average) is weighed against UCD's defensive record (1.76x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 3.18. Flip it around — UCD's attack (0.72x) against Bohemians's defence (1.04x) — and the away total comes out at 0.84.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 60 games and UCD's last 60 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 3-0, at 9.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (9.1%), 3-1 (8.1%). Together the top three scorelines make up 27% of the probability — a moderately spread distribution, typical of a competitive match-up.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
83%
1.21
11%
9.13
7%
15.36
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
3 – 0
9.6%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
9.1%
Home win
3 – 1
8.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
3.18
Bohemians xG
Total xG
4.02
0.84
UCD xG
1.21
83%
Home win
9.13
11%
Draw
15.36
7%
Away win
Goals Markets
91%
Over 1.5
1.10
9%
Under 1.5
11.11
76%
Over 2.5
1.32
24%
Under 2.5
4.17
57%
Over 3.5
1.75
43%
Under 3.5
2.33
37%
Over 4.5
2.70
63%
Under 4.5
1.59
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
55%
BTTS Yes
1.83
45%
BTTS No
2.20
Clean Sheet
43%
2.32
4%
23.97
Win to Nil
36%
2.81
0%
–
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 1.8 | 1.5 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 1 | 5.7 | 4.8 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 2 | 9.1 | 7.6 | 3.2 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 9.6 | 8.1 | 3.4 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 7.6 | 6.4 | 2.7 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 5 | 4.8 | 4.1 | 1.7 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs UCD Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs UCD?
Our Poisson model rates 3-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 9.6%.
How many goals are Bohemians and UCD expected to score?
The model projects 3.18 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.84 for UCD, a combined total of 4.02.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs UCD?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 83%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Recent Form Overview
Across their last 60 outings, Bohemians have picked up 1.42 PPG on a 23W 16D 21L record — D-D-L-W-D across the most recent five.
UCD's form line: 9W 11D 40L from 60 games, 0.63 PPG, last five L-W-L-L-L.
Put side by side, Bohemians are the form team by 0.79 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against UCD.
How They Fare by Venue
On home soil, Bohemians have posted 1.59 PPG from their last 29 home games (13W 7D 9L).
On the road, UCD have gone 3W 4D 22L from their last 29 away games — 0.45 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Attack vs Defence
Bohemians are averaging 1.33 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game recently; UCD are on 0.72 scored and 2.13 conceded.
Last 60 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
UCD
Blended
Bohemians (Home) vs UCD (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Blended
UCD
Blended
❓ Bohemians vs UCD Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians and UCD in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 23W 16D 21L in their last 60 games (1.42 PPG), while UCD have gone 9W 11D 40L in their last 60 (0.63 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or UCD away?
Bohemians's home record (1.59 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.59 PPG; UCD away: 0.45 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
The Rivalry So Far
Our data holds 8 H2H matches between Bohemians and UCD, the earliest from March 2022. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent in our data was on 12 October 2023, some 3 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Notable Numbers
Bohemians have won each of the latest 2 H2H matches we hold, a run that gives them the edge coming in.
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won Bohemians 3-0 UCD on 29 Apr 2022, the biggest margin in the H2H matches we hold.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 4W 0D 0L from the 4 H2H matches in our data played on their own ground against UCD — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
6
Bohemians
2
Draws
0
UCD
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs UCD H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and UCD?
Across the 8 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 6, UCD have won 0, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and UCD last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 12 October 2023: UCD 1-2 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and UCD?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 6 wins from the 8 head-to-head matches in our data.
📈 Trading Insight
Early Goal Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 27% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 30% of those situations.
UCD are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 90% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 14% of those situations.
Full-Time Markets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 59%, UCD 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 59% for Bohemians and 62% for UCD. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 41% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: UCD in 48%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / UCD away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians vs UCD Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians and UCD matches?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 59% of Bohemians's recent matches and 45% of UCD's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Are Bohemians and UCD matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 59% of Bohemians's matches and 62% of UCD's.
Do Bohemians and UCD matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 72% of Bohemians's recent matches and 90% of UCD's — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over UCD.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat UCD 2-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier Division. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 3.18 xG and UCD 0.84 xG, a combined 4.02. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. Bohemians fell 1.2 short of their projected output. UCD landed 0.8 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.21 / defence 1.04 against UCD attack 0.72 / defence 1.76, drawn from 60/60 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 83% | Draw 11% | UCD 7%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 83%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 76%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 91% and landed. Over 3.5 was 57% and did not. On both teams to score, the model sat at 55% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 47%, UCD 55%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 51%, which did not match the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not.
UCD's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 48% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.42 PPG against 0.63. Form held, and they took the win. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.24 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.