Bohemians 1-3 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates St Patrick's Athl. at 41%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians host St Patrick's Athl. at Dalymount Park in Premier Division, Regular Season - 25. Kick-off is scheduled for Monday 29 August 2022 at 19:45 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Premier Division games this season, Bohemians have gone 3W 2D 5L from 10 outings — a 1.10 PPG return. Last five: W W L L D. They are averaging 1.00 goals per game and conceding 1.30 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians's form when playing at home: 3W 3D 4L across 10 games at Dalymount Park this term (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their home games — an outstanding BTTS rate that is a key data point for this fixture.
St Patrick's Athl. — All Games: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier Division fixtures this season — 1.70 PPG. Last five: L W D W W. They are scoring at 1.60 per game and conceding 1.00. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for St Patrick's Athl., so this record blends games from this season and last.
St Patrick's Athl. away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.40 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game.
Despite the home advantage, the form figures favour St Patrick's Athl. — 0.60 PPG ahead of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.10). That gap is large enough to take seriously. Draw No Bet on the visitors neutralises home-ground risk while maintaining the form-backed selection.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at home): they score before half-time in 73% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 62% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 67% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 67% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (62 games, 30 at away): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 56% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 57% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 66% versus St Patrick's Athl. 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 53% | St Patrick's Athl. 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.14 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.38 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.981 / defence 1.157 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.146 / defence 0.866. League average goals — home 1.344 / away 1.037. Data: 62 Bohemians games / 62 St Patrick's Athl. games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 30% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 41%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 3.33 | Draw 3.57 | St Patrick's Athl. 2.44. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 46% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.52. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 46%/54% — the total xG of 2.52 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates St Patrick's Athl. as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on St Patrick's Athl. offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.52 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 46% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 52% on Yes. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 70% | St Patrick's Athl. 50% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 25 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Monday 29 Aug 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 30% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 41% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 46% | BTTS 52% | xG Bohemians 1.14 / St Patrick's Athl. 1.38 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.981 / def 1.157 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.146 / def 0.866 | league avg home 1.344 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: St Patrick's Athl. (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.14
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.38
St Patrick's Athl. xG
52%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
46%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 19:45 on Monday 29 August 2022 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Bohemians 1 - 3 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Regular Season - 25 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 30% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 41% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making St Patrick's Athl. the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 46%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-2D-5L in 10 | 1.10 PPG | GF 1.00 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-W-L-L-D. St Patrick's Athl. (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.00 | L5 L-W-D-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bohemians's attacking strength (0.98x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (0.87x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.14. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 1.38 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 62/62 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.3%. Close behind: 0-0 (9.7%), 0-1 (9.4%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
St Patrick's Athl. Win
30%
3.29
28%
3.55
41%
2.41
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.7%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
11.1%
Away win
1 – 0
9.2%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.14
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.52
1.38
St Patrick's Athl. xG
3.29
30%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
2.41
41%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
46%
Over 2.5
2.17
54%
Under 2.5
1.85
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.07
Clean Sheet
25%
3.96
32%
3.13
Win to Nil
8%
13.02
13%
7.56
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 8.1 | 11.1 | 7.6 | 3.5 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 9.2 | 12.7 | 8.7 | 4.0 | 1.4 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 5.3 | 7.2 | 5.0 | 2.3 | 0.8 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 2.0 | 2.8 | 1.9 | 0.9 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.8 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.3%.
How many goals are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.14 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.38 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 2.52.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians's recent record stands at 22W 19D 21L from 62 games, a 1.37 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-D in the last five. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 30W 14D 18L across 62 games — 1.68 PPG, with L-W-D-W-W in their last five. The sample for St Patrick's Athl. is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.37 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.68. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 13W 8D 9L from 30 games — 1.57 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 11W 9D 10L across 30 trips, a 1.40 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 1.27 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.48 scored and 1.05 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 66% of their recent games.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 35% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 62 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
St Patrick's Athl.
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 22W 19D 21L in their last 62 games (1.37 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 30W 14D 18L in their last 62 (1.68 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Bohemians's home record (1.57 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.57 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.40 PPG.
Have Bohemians or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 21% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 35%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 26 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 14 Mar 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 3D 1L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
2
Bohemians
5
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 2, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
They last met on 26 June 2026, when Bohemians 2-0 St Patrick's Athl..
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
St Patrick's Athl. have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 73% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 47% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 13% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 27% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 67%, St Patrick's Athl. 57% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 67% (Bohemians) and 47% (St Patrick's Athl.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 40% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play St Patrick's Athl.?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 67% of Bohemians's games and 57% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 67% of Bohemians's matches and 47% of St Patrick's Athl.'s.
Do Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 73% of their recent matches, St Patrick's Athl. in 57% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
St Patrick's Athl. cruise to a comfortable 1-3 victory over Bohemians.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
St Patrick's Athl. beat Bohemians 1-3 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 25, in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.14 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 1.38 xG, a combined 2.52. The scoreboard read 1-3 for 4 actual goals. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 1.38 projection by 1.6. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.98 / defence 1.16 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 1.15 / defence 0.87, drawn from 62/62 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 30% | Draw 28% | St Patrick's Athl. 41%, with St Patrick's Athl. to win its most likely call at 41%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 46%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 25% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 52% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 53%, St Patrick's Athl. 50%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 58%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (62 games, 30 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 66% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (62 games, 30 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 50% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.37 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.68 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the St Patrick's Athl. win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) managed 1 against a 1.83 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 3 against a 1.27 concession average — a leakier day than usual. St Patrick's Athl. (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.43 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (hit). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.