Bohemians 2-2 St Patrick's Athl. – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 41% — neither recent form nor the head-to-head data gives a clear steer either way as Bohemians face St Patrick's Athl..
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Bohemians host St Patrick's Athl. at Dalymount Park in Premier Division (matchday 17). Kick-off is Friday 24 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time.
Recent Form
Across their last 10 games, Bohemians have gone 3W 4D 3L — a 1.30 PPG return. Last five: W W L L W. They are averaging 1.20 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings (30%).
Bohemians's form when playing at home: 6W 3D 1L across their last 10 home games (2.10 PPG). They are averaging 2.30 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.30 — Bohemians are significantly better at home than their overall form suggests.
St Patrick's Athl. — last 10 games: 5W 1D 4L — 1.60 PPG. Last five: W W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.00 per game is modest, conceding 1.00 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
St Patrick's Athl. away from home: 6W 1D 3L from their last 10 away games — 1.90 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.30 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from their last 10 away games (50%) — they are hard to break down on the road.
There is minimal separation in the form figures — Bohemians at 1.30 PPG versus St Patrick's Athl.'s 1.60. The form guide is not providing a strong directional steer; the model and market data will carry more weight in the final assessment.
Trading Patterns
Bohemians in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them at home): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 57% of those occasions; of the 23 games they led at half-time, they failed to win 30%; of the 20 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 30%; BTTS occurs in 58% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (home games).
St Patrick's Athl. in-play and half-time data (last 72 games, 36 of them away): at least one goal arrives before half-time in 69% of their matches in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 87% of the time; of the 14 games they trailed at half-time, they recovered to draw or win 29%; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 58% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 54% versus St Patrick's Athl. 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 47% | St Patrick's Athl. 54%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.07 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.81 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.876 / defence 0.985 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.840 / defence 1.060. League average goals — home 1.153 / away 0.977. Data: built from Bohemians's last 52 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 54.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 41% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 27%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.43 | Draw 3.16 | St Patrick's Athl. 3.68. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome reaches 45%. The draw at 32% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 29% | BTTS Yes probability 36% | Total xG 1.88. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 71% probability — total xG of 1.88 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match. BTTS No at 64% is only a slight lean — the model gives both sides a fair chance of scoring, so No isn't a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Bohemians as the most likely outcome at 41% — marginal model lean. With a 32% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
The Poisson model projects 1.88 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 71% — a Poisson-only call with no corroboration from form or H2H.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 64% on No. Form rates are neutral — both teams scored in: Bohemians 60% (last 10 home games) | St Patrick's Athl. 40% (last 10 away games).
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. | Competition: Premier Division, matchday 17 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 24 May 2024 at 20:45 UK time • Data inputs: head-to-head data, recent form (overall and home/away), the Poisson prediction model and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 41% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 27% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 29% (Under 71%) | BTTS Yes 36% (No 64%) | xG Bohemians 1.07 / St Patrick's Athl. 0.81 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.876 / def 0.985 | St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.840 / def 1.060 | league avg home 1.153 / away 0.977 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (41%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.07
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.81
St Patrick's Athl. xG
36%
BTTS
56%
Over 1.5
29%
Over 2.5
12%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. FAQs
What time does Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. kick off?
Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. kicked off at 20:45 UK time on Friday 24 May 2024 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Bohemians 2 - 2 St Patrick's Athl..
Where is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. part of?
Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. is a Premier Division fixture (matchday 17) (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 41% chance of winning, St Patrick's Athl. a 27% chance, and a 32% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our model estimates a 36% probability that both Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. will score, so it leans towards BTTS No (64%).
Will Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 29%, so it leans towards under 2.5 goals (71%).
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Bohemians's attacking strength (0.88x league average) is weighed against St Patrick's Athl.'s defensive record (1.06x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.07. The same calculation in reverse, St Patrick's Athl.'s attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 0.81 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from Bohemians's last 52 games and St Patrick's Athl.'s last 54 — a full enough recent sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 0-0, at 17.0%. Close behind: 1-1 (14.9%), 1-0 (14.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 47% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
41%
2.43
32%
3.16
27%
3.68
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
16.3%
Home win
Most likely
0 – 0
15.3%
Draw
1 – 1
13.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.07
Bohemians xG
Total xG
1.88
0.81
St Patrick's Athl. xG
2.43
41%
Home win
3.16
32%
Draw
3.68
27%
Away win
Goals Markets
56%
Over 1.5
1.79
44%
Under 1.5
2.27
29%
Over 2.5
3.45
71%
Under 2.5
1.41
12%
Over 3.5
8.33
88%
Under 3.5
1.14
4%
Over 4.5
25.00
96%
Under 4.5
1.04
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
36%
BTTS Yes
2.74
64%
BTTS No
1.57
Clean Sheet
45%
2.25
34%
2.92
Win to Nil
18%
5.45
9%
10.74
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 15.3 | 12.3 | 5.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 16.3 | 13.2 | 5.3 | 1.4 | 0.3 | – |
| 2 | 8.8 | 7.1 | 2.9 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.1 | 2.5 | 1.0 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.8 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. Prediction FAQs
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Our Poisson model rates 0-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 17.0%.
How many goals are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. expected to score?
The model projects 1.07 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.81 for St Patrick's Athl., a combined total of 1.88.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl.?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 41%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians's recent record stands at 28W 20D 24L from 72 games, a 1.44 PPG return, with W-W-L-L-W in the last five.
St Patrick's Athl., meanwhile, have gone 37W 12D 23L across 72 games — 1.71 PPG, with W-W-W-L-L in their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.44 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. on 1.71. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
At home specifically, Bohemians have managed 17W 9D 10L from their last 36 home games — 1.67 PPG in front of their own supporters.
St Patrick's Athl.'s away record stands at 17W 6D 13L across their last 36 away games, a 1.58 PPG haul.
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians are averaging 1.36 goals scored and 1.19 conceded per game recently; St Patrick's Athl. are on 1.61 scored and 1.10 conceded.
Defensively: St Patrick's Athl. in 36% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 72 Results
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
Bohemians (Home) vs St Patrick's Athl. (Away)
Home games only for the home side · Away games only for the away side
Bohemians
Current Season
St Patrick's Athl.
Current Season
❓ Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. Form FAQs
What form are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 28W 20D 24L in their last 72 games (1.44 PPG), while St Patrick's Athl. have gone 37W 12D 23L in their last 72 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or St Patrick's Athl. away?
Bohemians's home record (1.67 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.67 PPG; St Patrick's Athl. away: 1.58 PPG.
Have Bohemians or St Patrick's Athl. been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 28% of their recent games, St Patrick's Athl. in 36%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
This section is based on the 10 H2H matches we hold for this pairing, spanning roughly 2 years from June 2024. All of them came in Premier Division. The most recent was as recently as 30 October 2026, so it is a fresh reference point.
Streaks & Records
Bohemians have won the most recent 2 H2H matches in our data — the current momentum in this pairing sits with them.
The biggest gap in our H2H data came on 14 Mar 2025, when St Patrick's Athl. won St Patrick's Athl. 3-0 Bohemians.
Bohemians's record when hosting St Patrick's Athl. specifically: 2W 2D 1L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians
4
Draws
3
St Patrick's Athl.
Recent Meetings
❓ Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. H2H FAQs
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl.?
Across the 10 head-to-head matches in our data, Bohemians have won 3, St Patrick's Athl. have won 3, and 4 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. last play each other?
The most recent meeting in our data was on 30 October 2026: St Patrick's Athl. 2-3 Bohemians.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 23% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 42% of those situations.
St Patrick's Athl. are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 33% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 25% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 25% of those situations.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 58%, St Patrick's Athl. 53% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 58% (Bohemians) and 58% (St Patrick's Athl.). Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 44% and 33% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / St Patrick's Athl. away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Bohemians vs St Patrick's Athl. Trading FAQs
Do both teams usually score in Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. matches?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 58% of Bohemians's games and 53% of St Patrick's Athl.'s, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Are Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. matches usually high-scoring?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 58% of Bohemians's matches and 58% of St Patrick's Athl.'s.
Do Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. matches tend to have early goals?
There has been at least one first-half goal in 69% of Bohemians's recent matches and 69% of St Patrick's Athl.'s — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians and St Patrick's Athl. finished level at 2-2 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 17, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.07 xG and St Patrick's Athl. 0.81 xG, a combined 1.88. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Bohemians beat their projection by 0.9 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. St Patrick's Athl. outscored their 0.81 projection by 1.2. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.88 / defence 0.98 against St Patrick's Athl. attack 0.84 / defence 1.06, drawn from 52/54 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 41% | Draw 32% | St Patrick's Athl. 27%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 41%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 32%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 29%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the opposite of the projected direction. Over 1.5 had been 56% and landed. Over 3.5 was 12% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 36% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 51% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 47%, St Patrick's Athl. 54%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 50%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 54% of their matches — today it did.
St Patrick's Athl.'s trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.44 PPG, St Patrick's Athl. 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.