Bohemians 1-1 Shelbourne – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Shelbourne at 46% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Bohemians vs Shelbourne encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Shelbourne make the trip to Dalymount Park to face Bohemians in Premier Division, Regular Season - 19. The match kicks off on Friday 6 September 2024 at 19:45 UTC.
Form
Bohemians (all games): 1W 5D 4L across 10 Premier Division fixtures this term — 0.80 PPG. Last five: D D L D W. They are averaging 1.10 goals per game and conceding 1.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches — an extremely high rate that makes BTTS Yes a well-supported standalone angle from their form alone. This season is still relatively young for Bohemians, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.20 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture.
Shelbourne have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Premier Division outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: D D L D W. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 6 clean sheets from 10 games (60%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not.
Shelbourne away from home this season: 4W 4D 2L from 10 away games — 1.60 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
Shelbourne arrive in superior form — a 1.00 PPG advantage (1.80 vs 0.80) that offsets much of the home-ground benefit. The away side are the form pick, with draw protection the sensible way to manage the home-field uncertainty.
H2H Analysis
Neither side has dominated this fixture. The last 2 head-to-head meetings have produced 1 wins for Bohemians, 0 for Shelbourne and 1 draws — an even split that leaves the H2H largely neutral as a betting input.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.5 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 23 Aug 2024, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
Bohemians goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 32 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 52% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 53% of games (home games).
Shelbourne goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (63 games, 32 at away): they score before half-time in 59% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 41% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 28% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 51% versus Shelbourne 48%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bohemians 46% | Shelbourne 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 0.90 xG and Shelbourne 1.35 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.914 / defence 1.302 | Shelbourne attack 1.069 / defence 0.723. League average goals — home 1.367 / away 0.969. Shelbourne's defence strength of 0.723 is below average — they are conceding at a rate that inflates the home xG figure. Data: 63 Bohemians games / 64 Shelbourne games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 24% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 46%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 4.17 | Draw 3.33 | Shelbourne 2.17. Shelbourne hold a narrow Poisson edge at 46% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.25. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.25 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, Shelbourne are the pick at 46% — moderate model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on Shelbourne if the outright odds are short.
Poisson projects 2.25 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 39% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 45% on No. Form rates are neutral: Bohemians 60% | Shelbourne 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Shelbourne | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 19 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 6 Sep 2024, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 24% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 46% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 45% | xG Bohemians 0.90 / Shelbourne 1.35 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.914 / def 1.302 | Shelbourne attack 1.069 / def 0.723 | league avg home 1.367 / away 0.969 • Poisson stance: Shelbourne (46%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.90
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
1.35
Shelbourne xG
45%
BTTS
67%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Shelbourne kick off?
Bohemians vs Shelbourne kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 6 September 2024 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Bohemians 1 - 1 Shelbourne.
Where is Bohemians vs Shelbourne being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Shelbourne part of?
Bohemians vs Shelbourne is a Regular Season - 19 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 24% chance of winning, Shelbourne a 46% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making Shelbourne the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both Bohemians and Shelbourne will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Shelbourne have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
Record (2 meetings): Bohemians 1W | Draws 1 | Shelbourne 0W.
What form are Bohemians and Shelbourne in?
Bohemians (all comps): 1W-5D-4L in 10 | 0.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 1.50 | L5 D-D-L-D-W. Shelbourne (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-D-L-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (0.91) and Shelbourne's defence rating (0.72), the model arrives at 0.90 expected goals for the home side. Flip it around — Shelbourne's attack (1.07x) against Bohemians's defence (1.30x) — and the away total comes out at 1.35.
These ratings are built from 63/64 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 14.5%. Close behind: 0-1 (12.5%), 0-0 (12.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Shelbourne Win
24%
4.20
30%
3.29
46%
2.18
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.2%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.8%
Draw
0 – 0
10.5%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.90
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.25
1.35
Shelbourne xG
4.20
24%
Home win
3.29
30%
Draw
2.18
46%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.21
55%
BTTS No
1.83
Clean Sheet
26%
3.86
40%
2.47
Win to Nil
6%
16.19
19%
5.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.5 | 14.2 | 9.6 | 4.3 | 1.5 | 0.4 |
| 1 | 9.5 | 12.8 | 8.6 | 3.9 | 1.3 | 0.4 |
| 2 | 4.3 | 5.8 | 3.9 | 1.8 | 0.6 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 1.3 | 1.7 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.5%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Shelbourne expected to score?
The model projects 0.90 expected goals for Bohemians and 1.35 for Shelbourne, a combined total of 2.25.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Shelbourne?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 46%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Bohemians come into this having played 63 games, going 24W 18D 21L for 1.43 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-D-W. The sample for Bohemians is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, Shelbourne sit at 1.76 PPG from 63 outings (29W 24D 10L), a run that reads D-D-L-D-W across their last five.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.43 PPG for Bohemians against 1.76 for Shelbourne. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
Bohemians's home form reads 14W 8D 10L across 32 games on their own ground, a 1.56 PPG return.
Away from home, Shelbourne have taken 1.62 points per game from 32 outings (13W 13D 6L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
Bohemians are averaging 1.32 goals scored and 1.17 conceded per game recently; Shelbourne are on 1.19 scored and 0.71 conceded.
Defensively: Shelbourne in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 63 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Blended
Shelbourne
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Shelbourne in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 24W 18D 21L in their last 63 games (1.43 PPG), while Shelbourne have gone 29W 24D 10L in their last 63 (1.76 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Shelbourne away?
Shelbourne's away record (1.62 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.56 PPG; Shelbourne away: 1.62 PPG.
Have Bohemians or Shelbourne been keeping clean sheets recently?
Bohemians have kept a clean sheet in 29% of their recent games, Shelbourne in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 22 June 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: Bohemians won 0-3 on 22 Jun 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, Bohemians have gone 1W 2D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against Shelbourne — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
3
Bohemians
5
Draws
2
Shelbourne
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 3, Shelbourne have won 2, and 5 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Shelbourne last play each other?
They last met on 22 June 2026, when Shelbourne 0-3 Bohemians.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Shelbourne?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 28% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 19% of those situations.
Shelbourne see a goal before the break in 59% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 41% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 56%, Shelbourne 41% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 53% (Bohemians) and 28% (Shelbourne).
On the defensive side: Shelbourne in 47%; Shelbourne in 28%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Shelbourne away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Shelbourne?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of Bohemians's recent matches and 41% of Shelbourne's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Shelbourne usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 53% of Bohemians's recent games and 28% of Shelbourne's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Shelbourne tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Shelbourne in 59% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Shelbourne share the spoils in a 1-1 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 19, as Bohemians and Shelbourne drew 1-1 in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 0.90 xG and Shelbourne 1.35 xG, a combined 2.25. The scoreboard read 1-1 for 2 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.91 / defence 1.30 against Shelbourne attack 1.07 / defence 0.72, drawn from 63/64 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 24% | Draw 30% | Shelbourne 46%, with Shelbourne to win its most likely call at 46%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 67% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 46%, Shelbourne 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 49%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (63 games, 32 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 51% of their matches — today it did.
Shelbourne's trading profile (63 games, 32 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.43 PPG, Shelbourne 1.76 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss). The data was on the wrong side of this result more often than not — a reminder that a single match sits well inside the model's variance.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.