Bohemians 1-0 Galway United – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 44%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Galway United fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Premier Division clash, Regular Season - 6 as Bohemians welcome Galway United to Dalymount Park. Kick-off is set for Friday 13 March 2026 at 19:45 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Bohemians stand at 3W 3D 4L from 10 Premier Division matches — 1.20 PPG. Last five: L L D L W. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.50 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets.
Bohemians's home record at Dalymount Park: 5W 2D 3L from 10 Premier Division appearances (1.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.70 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Dalymount Park. Their home PPG of 1.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Galway United have recorded 2W 4D 4L from 10 outings — 1.00 PPG. Last five: W W D L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 0.90 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation.
Galway United's away record: 0W 4D 6L from 10 road trips in Premier Division this season (0.40 PPG). Away from home they average 0.40 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.40 is notably below their overall 1.00 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1.20 PPG, Galway United 1.00 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H Record
The H2H landscape is flat: 7 previous encounters have yielded 2 wins for Bohemians, 3 for Galway United and 2 draws. A neutral reading in isolation.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.1 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 17 Oct 2025, ended 0–2 with Galway United winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Data
Bohemians trading profile (72 games, 36 at home): they score before half-time in 78% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 42% of games (home games).
Galway United trading profile (72 games, 36 at away): they score before half-time in 61% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they fail to score in 35% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 49% versus Galway United 47%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (Bohemians 42% | Galway United 31%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.25 xG and Galway United 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 1.068 / defence 1.006 | Galway United attack 0.811 / defence 0.873. League average goals — home 1.342 / away 1.098. Data: 41 Bohemians games / 41 Galway United games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: Bohemians 44% | Draw 31% | Galway United 26%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 2.27 | Draw 3.23 | Galway United 3.85. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 31% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 43% | Total xG 2.15. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.15 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 43% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 44% — marginal model lean. With a 31% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Bohemians offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.15 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 36% probability — reasonable conviction, supported by form averaging 2.2 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 43%. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 40% | Galway United 40% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (41 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Galway United | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 6 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 13 Mar 2026, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 44% | Draw 31% | Galway United 26% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 43% | xG Bohemians 1.25 / Galway United 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 1.068 / def 1.006 | Galway United attack 0.811 / def 0.873 | league avg home 1.342 / away 1.098 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (44%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.25
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Galway United xG
43%
BTTS
64%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Galway United kick off?
Bohemians vs Galway United kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 13 March 2026 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Galway United?
Bohemians 1 - 0 Galway United.
Where is Bohemians vs Galway United being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Galway United part of?
Bohemians vs Galway United is a Regular Season - 6 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Galway United?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 44% chance of winning, Galway United a 26% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Galway United?
Our model estimates a 43% probability that both Bohemians and Galway United will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Galway United have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Galway United?
Record (7 meetings): Bohemians 2W | Draws 2 | Galway United 3W.
What form are Bohemians and Galway United in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.50 | L5 L-L-D-L-W. Galway United (all comps): 2W-4D-4L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-D-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
The model rates Bohemians's attack at 1.07x the league average against Galway United's defence at 0.87x — combine the two and it projects 1.25 expected goals for the hosts. The same calculation in reverse, Galway United's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 0.90 expected goals for the visitors.
The sample (41/41 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.4%), 1-0 (12.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
44%
2.29
31%
3.26
26%
3.89
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.7%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.25
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.15
0.90
Galway United xG
2.29
44%
Home win
3.26
31%
Draw
3.89
26%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
43%
BTTS Yes
2.32
57%
BTTS No
1.76
Clean Sheet
41%
2.45
29%
3.49
Win to Nil
18%
5.60
7%
13.61
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.7 | 10.5 | 4.7 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.6 | 13.1 | 5.9 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 9.2 | 8.2 | 3.7 | 1.1 | 0.2 | – |
| 3 | 3.8 | 3.4 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Galway United?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Galway United expected to score?
The model projects 1.25 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.90 for Galway United, a combined total of 2.15.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Galway United?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 44%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Bohemians come into this having played 72 games, going 26W 18D 28L for 1.33 points per game. Their last five reads L-L-D-L-W.
On the other side, Galway United sit at 1.26 PPG from 72 outings (22W 25D 25L), a run that reads W-W-D-L-D across their last five.
Form-wise this is close to level: Bohemians on 1.33 PPG, Galway United on 1.26. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Venue Form
Bohemians's home form reads 14W 8D 14L across 36 games on their own ground, a 1.39 PPG return.
Away from home, Galway United have taken 1.06 points per game from 36 outings (8W 14D 14L).
Goals in Recent Form
Bohemians are averaging 1.21 goals scored and 1.14 conceded per game recently; Galway United are on 0.97 scored and 1.01 conceded.
Last 72 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Galway United
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Galway United in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 26W 18D 28L in their last 72 games (1.33 PPG), while Galway United have gone 22W 25D 25L in their last 72 (1.26 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Galway United away?
Bohemians's home record (1.39 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.39 PPG; Galway United away: 1.06 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
10 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to May 2024. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. The two were last together as recently as 2 August 2026, so this form is fresh in the memory.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 Jul 2025, when Bohemians won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Galway United specifically: 2W 2D 2L from 6 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Bohemians
3
Draws
3
Galway United
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Galway United?
From 10 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 4, Galway United have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Galway United last play each other?
They last met on 2 August 2026, when Bohemians 1-1 Galway United.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Galway United?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 78% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 11% of those situations.
Galway United are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 61% of their matches.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 50%, Galway United 44% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Low-scoring games have been more typical here — Over 2.5 sits at just 42% for Bohemians and 25% for Galway United.
On the defensive side: Galway United in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Galway United away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Galway United?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 50% of Bohemians's recent matches and 44% of Galway United's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Bohemians vs Galway United usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 42% of Bohemians's recent games and 25% of Galway United's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Bohemians and Galway United tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 78% of their recent matches, Galway United in 61% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as Bohemians edge out Galway United 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Bohemians beat Galway United 1-0 at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 6, in the Premier Division. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.25 xG and Galway United 0.90 xG, a combined 2.15. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Galway United landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 1.07 / defence 1.01 against Galway United attack 0.81 / defence 0.87, drawn from 41/41 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 44% | Draw 31% | Galway United 26%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 44%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 64% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 43% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 36% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 42%, Galway United 31%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 48%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (72 games, 36 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not.
Galway United's trading profile (72 games, 36 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 35% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Bohemians 1.33 PPG, Galway United 1.26 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Bohemians win broke the near-deadlock. Bohemians (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.19 average — tighter than their form line. Galway United (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 0.83 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.