Bohemians 2-2 Finn Harps – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates Bohemians at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this Bohemians vs Finn Harps fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis & Preview
A Premier Division encounter, Regular Season - 34 sees Finn Harps travel to Dalymount Park to take on Bohemians. The game is scheduled for Friday 21 October 2022, 19:45 UTC.
Form Guide
Bohemians — All Games: 3W 1D 6L from 10 Premier Division outings this season, averaging 1.00 points per game. Last five: L W W L L. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.20 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Dalymount Park, Bohemians have gone 5W 1D 4L this season (10 games, 1.60 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.20 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.60 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.00 — Bohemians are significantly better at Dalymount Park than their overall form suggests.
Across all Premier Division games this season, Finn Harps have recorded 2W 1D 7L from 10 outings — 0.70 PPG. Last five: L L D L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 2.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Conceding 2.20 per game is a high rate — their defensive vulnerabilities have been exposed regularly this season. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
When travelling in Premier Division this season, Finn Harps have posted 0W 1D 9L from 10 away outings — 0.10 PPG. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 2.90 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 70% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture. Their away PPG of 0.10 is notably below their overall 0.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
The form figures are too closely matched to derive a directional pick: Bohemians 1.00 PPG, Finn Harps 0.70 PPG. Look to other data sets to build the analysis.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 3 wins apiece for Bohemians, 2 for Finn Harps and 2 shared spoils from 7 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 7 previous meetings have averaged 2.7 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 24 Sep 2022, ended 2–0 with Bohemians winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Bohemians in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 71% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 58% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 62% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (home games).
Finn Harps in-play tendencies (69 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 85% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 55% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 59% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 76% of games (away games); they fail to score in 33% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Bohemians 62% versus Finn Harps 56%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Bohemians 51% | Finn Harps 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Bohemians 1.76 xG and Finn Harps 0.97 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Bohemians attack 0.835 / defence 1.049 | Finn Harps attack 0.863 / defence 1.585. League average goals — home 1.327 / away 1.076. Finn Harps bring a strong defensive rating of 1.585 — this is suppressing Bohemians's projected output below what their attack strength alone would suggest. Data: 69 Bohemians games / 69 Finn Harps games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Bohemians 56% | Draw 23% | Finn Harps 21%. Fair-value odds: Bohemians 1.79 | Draw 4.35 | Finn Harps 4.76. The model has a clear lean to Bohemians (56%) — a 35pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 51% | BTTS probability 52% | Total xG 2.73. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 51%/49% — the total xG of 2.73 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 52% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, Bohemians are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.73 combined xG gives a 51% probability to Over 2.5 — strong, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game and H2H averaging 2.7 goals per meeting.
Poisson assigns a 52% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Bohemians 40% | Finn Harps 70% BTTS from recent games.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Bohemians vs Finn Harps | Competition: Premier Division, Regular Season - 34 | Venue: Dalymount Park • Kick-off: Friday 21 Oct 2022, 19:45 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Bohemians 56% | Draw 23% | Finn Harps 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 51% | BTTS 52% | xG Bohemians 1.76 / Finn Harps 0.97 • Poisson strength factors: Bohemians attack 0.835 / def 1.049 | Finn Harps attack 0.863 / def 1.585 | league avg home 1.327 / away 1.076 • Poisson stance: Bohemians (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.76
Bohemians xG
Expected Goals
0.97
Finn Harps xG
52%
BTTS
76%
Over 1.5
51%
Over 2.5
29%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Bohemians vs Finn Harps kick off?
Bohemians vs Finn Harps kicked off at 19:45 on Friday 21 October 2022 at Dalymount Park.
What was the final score in Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Bohemians 2 - 2 Finn Harps.
Where is Bohemians vs Finn Harps being played?
The match is being played at Dalymount Park.
What competition is Bohemians vs Finn Harps part of?
Bohemians vs Finn Harps is a Regular Season - 34 fixture in the Premier Division (Ireland).
Who is favourite to win Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Our statistical model gives Bohemians a 56% chance of winning, Finn Harps a 21% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making Bohemians the favourite.
Will both teams score in Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Our model estimates a 52% probability that both Bohemians and Finn Harps will score (BTTS).
Will Bohemians vs Finn Harps have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 51%.
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Finn Harps?
Record (7 meetings): Bohemians 3W | Draws 2 | Finn Harps 2W.
What form are Bohemians and Finn Harps in?
Bohemians (all comps): 3W-1D-6L in 10 | 1.00 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-W-L-L. Finn Harps (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 2.20 | L5 L-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from Bohemians's attack rating (0.83) and Finn Harps's defence rating (1.58), the model arrives at 1.76 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Finn Harps's attack versus Bohemians's defence, projects 0.97 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 69/69 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 12.6%. Close behind: 2-0 (10.1%), 1-0 (10.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 33% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Bohemians Win
56%
1.79
23%
4.26
21%
4.81
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.5%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.2%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.76
Bohemians xG
Total xG
2.73
0.97
Finn Harps xG
1.79
56%
Home win
4.26
23%
Draw
4.81
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
76%
Over 1.5
1.32
24%
Under 1.5
4.17
51%
Over 2.5
1.96
49%
Under 2.5
2.04
29%
Over 3.5
3.45
71%
Under 3.5
1.41
14%
Over 4.5
7.14
86%
Under 4.5
1.16
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
52%
BTTS Yes
1.94
48%
BTTS No
2.06
Clean Sheet
38%
2.65
17%
5.79
Win to Nil
21%
4.75
4%
27.83
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.5 | 6.4 | 3.1 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.5 | 11.2 | 5.4 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.8 | 4.8 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 5.9 | 5.7 | 2.8 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 2.6 | 2.5 | 1.2 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 12.6%.
How many goals are Bohemians and Finn Harps expected to score?
The model projects 1.76 expected goals for Bohemians and 0.97 for Finn Harps, a combined total of 2.73.
How confident is the prediction model for Bohemians vs Finn Harps?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Across their last 69 outings, Bohemians have picked up 1.36 PPG on a 25W 19D 25L record — L-W-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Finn Harps's form line: 15W 18D 36L from 69 games, 0.91 PPG, last five L-L-D-L-L.
Put side by side, Bohemians are the form team by 0.45 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Finn Harps.
Home Ground vs the Road
On home soil, Bohemians have posted 1.56 PPG from 34 outings (15W 8D 11L).
On the road, Finn Harps have gone 7W 8D 19L from 34 away games — 0.85 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Bohemians come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
Bohemians are averaging 1.43 goals scored and 1.26 conceded per game recently; Finn Harps are on 1.07 scored and 1.68 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Bohemians have seen both teams score in 62% of their recent games.
Last 69 Results — Premier Division
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Bohemians
Current Season
Finn Harps
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Bohemians and Finn Harps in coming into this match?
Bohemians have gone 25W 19D 25L in their last 69 games (1.36 PPG), while Finn Harps have gone 15W 18D 36L in their last 69 (0.91 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Bohemians at home or Finn Harps away?
Bohemians's home record (1.56 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Bohemians at home: 1.56 PPG; Finn Harps away: 0.85 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Bohemians and Finn Harps runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Premier Division. It has been a while since the last meeting — 21 October 2022, some 1 year back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
The biggest gap between the sides came on 8 May 2021, when Bohemians won 4-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Bohemians's record when hosting Finn Harps specifically: 1W 2D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
3
Bohemians
3
Draws
2
Finn Harps
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Bohemians and Finn Harps?
From 8 meetings on record, Bohemians have won 3, Finn Harps have won 2, and 3 have been drawn.
When did Bohemians and Finn Harps last play each other?
They last met on 21 October 2022, when Bohemians 2-2 Finn Harps.
Who has won more matches between Bohemians and Finn Harps?
Bohemians have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Bohemians are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 71% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 21% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Finn Harps are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Bohemians 62%, Finn Harps 59% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Goals have flowed in these teams' recent matches — Over 2.5 has landed at 62% for Bohemians and 76% for Finn Harps. Stepping up a level, Over 3.5 has also landed reasonably often — 38% and 38% respectively — worth a look for goal-hungry markets.
On the defensive side: Finn Harps in 32%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Bohemians home games / Finn Harps away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Bohemians play Finn Harps?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 62% of Bohemians's games and 59% of Finn Harps's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Bohemians vs Finn Harps usually a high-scoring fixture?
Recent trends suggest it could be — Over 2.5 goals has landed in 62% of Bohemians's matches and 76% of Finn Harps's.
Do Bohemians and Finn Harps tend to score early?
Bohemians have had a goal before half-time in 71% of their recent matches, Finn Harps in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Bohemians and Finn Harps share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Dalymount Park, Regular Season - 34, as Bohemians and Finn Harps drew 2-2 in the Premier Division. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Bohemians 1.76 xG and Finn Harps 0.97 xG, a combined 2.73. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Finn Harps outscored their 0.97 projection by 1.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Bohemians attack 0.83 / defence 1.05 against Finn Harps attack 0.86 / defence 1.58, drawn from 69/69 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Bohemians 56% | Draw 23% | Finn Harps 21%, with Bohemians to win its most likely call at 56%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 51%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — the model's lean was correct. Over 1.5 had been 76% and landed. Over 3.5 was 29% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 52% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Bohemians 51%, Finn Harps 62%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 59%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Bohemians's trading profile (69 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 62% of their matches — today it did.
Finn Harps's trading profile (69 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 56% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Bohemians arrived the stronger side — 1.36 PPG against 0.91. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. Finn Harps (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.03 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit), form (miss). A mixed scorecard — the data caught the broad shape of the game but not every market.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.