Volos NFC 3-3 Asteras Tripolis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson rates Volos NFC at 42% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Fixture Analysis
It is a Super League 1 clash, Regular Season - 1 as Volos NFC welcome Asteras Tripolis to Panthessaliko Stadio. Kick-off is set for Friday 19 August 2022 at 19:30 UTC.
Recent Form
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Volos NFC have gone 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — a 1.20 PPG return. Last five: W D D D W. They are averaging 1.30 goals per game and conceding 0.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. Defensively, conceding just 0.80 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Volos NFC haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Volos NFC's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Panthessaliko Stadio this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.40 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Looking at all fixtures this season, Asteras Tripolis stand at 1W 3D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.60 PPG. Last five: L D L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.80 per game is modest, conceding 1.70 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Asteras Tripolis haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Asteras Tripolis away from home this season: 3W 1D 6L from 10 away games — 1.00 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.90 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
Volos NFC carry the stronger recent momentum — 0.60 PPG ahead of their opponents on 1.20 vs 0.60. The form data is a point in their favour, and where the price allows, it is the cleaner directional bet.
On the goals front, neither side scores or concedes freely enough to make BTTS Yes the call. Volos NFC's 30% rate and Asteras Tripolis's 30% (using home/away splits) both sit well below average — BTTS No is the form-backed angle.
H2H
The rivalry is an even one: 0 wins apiece for Volos NFC, 1 for Asteras Tripolis and 0 shared spoils from 1 past contests. Neither side holds a meaningful historical edge.
The 1 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2022, ended 0–2 with Asteras Tripolis winning.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
In-Play Profile
Volos NFC in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 70% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 56% of games (home games).
Asteras Tripolis in-play tendencies (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 25% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Volos NFC 61% versus Asteras Tripolis 33%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Volos NFC 61% | Asteras Tripolis 27%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Volos NFC 1.29 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Volos NFC attack 0.949 / defence 1.029 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.992 / defence 1.043. League average goals — home 1.309 / away 1.028. Data: 26 Volos NFC games / 26 Asteras Tripolis games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: Volos NFC 42% | Draw 28% | Asteras Tripolis 30%. Fair-value odds: Volos NFC 2.38 | Draw 3.57 | Asteras Tripolis 3.33. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 28% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 47% | Total xG 2.34. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.34 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 47% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Our Verdict
Poisson rates Volos NFC as the most likely outcome at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 28% draw probability, Draw No Bet on Volos NFC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win. The opposing side holds a 30% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.34 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
Poisson assigns a 47% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: Volos NFC 30% | Asteras Tripolis 30% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 1 | Venue: Panthessaliko Stadio • Kick-off: Friday 19 Aug 2022, 19:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Volos NFC 42% | Draw 28% | Asteras Tripolis 30% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 47% | xG Volos NFC 1.29 / Asteras Tripolis 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: Volos NFC attack 0.949 / def 1.029 | Asteras Tripolis attack 0.992 / def 1.043 | league avg home 1.309 / away 1.028 • Poisson stance: Volos NFC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.29
Volos NFC xG
Expected Goals
1.05
Asteras Tripolis xG
47%
BTTS
68%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis kick off?
Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis kicked off at 19:30 on Friday 19 August 2022 at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What was the final score in Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Volos NFC 3 - 3 Asteras Tripolis.
Where is Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis being played?
The match is being played at Panthessaliko Stadio.
What competition is Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis part of?
Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis is a Regular Season - 1 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our statistical model gives Volos NFC a 42% chance of winning, Asteras Tripolis a 30% chance, and a 28% chance of a draw — making Volos NFC the favourite.
Will both teams score in Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our model estimates a 47% probability that both Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis will score (BTTS).
Will Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis?
Record (1 meetings): Volos NFC 0W | Draws 0 | Asteras Tripolis 1W.
What form are Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. Volos NFC (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.30 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-D-D-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Volos NFC's attacking strength (0.95x league average) is weighed against Asteras Tripolis's defensive record (1.04x) to produce a home expected-goals figure of 1.29. The same calculation in reverse, Asteras Tripolis's attack versus Volos NFC's defence, projects 1.05 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Most Likely Scorelines
The model's single most probable exact score is 1-1, at 14.7%. Close behind: 0-0 (11.3%), 1-0 (10.7%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Volos NFC Win
42%
2.38
28%
3.55
30%
3.34
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.0%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
12.4%
Home win
0 – 1
10.1%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.29
Volos NFC xG
Total xG
2.34
1.05
Asteras Tripolis xG
2.38
42%
Home win
3.55
28%
Draw
3.34
30%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
47%
BTTS Yes
2.11
53%
BTTS No
1.90
Clean Sheet
35%
2.85
27%
3.65
Win to Nil
15%
6.81
8%
12.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.6 | 10.1 | 5.3 | 1.8 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.4 | 13.0 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.0 | 8.4 | 4.4 | 1.5 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.5 | 3.6 | 1.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 1.1 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.7%.
How many goals are Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis expected to score?
The model projects 1.29 expected goals for Volos NFC and 1.05 for Asteras Tripolis, a combined total of 2.34.
How confident is the prediction model for Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
Volos NFC come into this having played 33 games, going 10W 10D 13L for 1.21 points per game. Their last five reads W-D-D-D-W. Volos NFC haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
On the other side, Asteras Tripolis sit at 1.24 PPG from 33 outings (11W 8D 14L), a run that reads L-D-L-L-D across their last five. Asteras Tripolis haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Form-wise this is close to level: Volos NFC on 1.21 PPG, Asteras Tripolis on 1.24. Other factors will likely decide this one more than recent results.
Home Ground vs the Road
Volos NFC's home form reads 6W 3D 7L across 16 games on their own ground, a 1.31 PPG return.
Away from home, Asteras Tripolis have taken 1.06 points per game from 16 outings (4W 5D 7L).
The Goals Picture
Volos NFC are averaging 1.42 goals scored and 1.45 conceded per game recently; Asteras Tripolis are on 1.00 scored and 1.12 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Volos NFC have seen both teams score in 61% of their recent games.
Defensively: Asteras Tripolis in 42% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Volos NFC
Pre-Season
Asteras Tripolis
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis in coming into this match?
Volos NFC have gone 10W 10D 13L in their last 33 games (1.21 PPG), while Asteras Tripolis have gone 11W 8D 14L in their last 33 (1.24 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Volos NFC at home or Asteras Tripolis away?
Volos NFC's home record (1.31 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Volos NFC at home: 1.31 PPG; Asteras Tripolis away: 1.06 PPG.
Have Volos NFC or Asteras Tripolis been keeping clean sheets recently?
Volos NFC have kept a clean sheet in 24% of their recent games, Asteras Tripolis in 42%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis runs to 10 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to March 2022. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 7 February 2026, roughly 5 months ago.
Digging Into the Numbers
Volos NFC's record when hosting Asteras Tripolis specifically: 2W 1D 2L from 5 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 10 Meetings
4
Volos NFC
2
Draws
4
Asteras Tripolis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis?
From 10 meetings on record, Volos NFC have won 4, Asteras Tripolis have won 4, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis last play each other?
They last met on 7 February 2026, when Asteras Tripolis 2-0 Volos NFC.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
Volos NFC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time.
Asteras Tripolis see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Volos NFC 44%, Asteras Tripolis 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 56% (Volos NFC) and 25% (Asteras Tripolis).
On the defensive side: Volos NFC keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Asteras Tripolis in 44%; Volos NFC have failed to score in 31% of games; Asteras Tripolis in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Volos NFC home games / Asteras Tripolis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Volos NFC play Asteras Tripolis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of Volos NFC's recent matches and 38% of Asteras Tripolis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is Volos NFC vs Asteras Tripolis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 56% of Volos NFC's recent games and 25% of Asteras Tripolis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis tend to score early?
Volos NFC have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Asteras Tripolis in 56% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis share the spoils in a 3-3 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Volos NFC and Asteras Tripolis finished level at 3-3 at Panthessaliko Stadio, Regular Season - 1, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Volos NFC 1.29 xG and Asteras Tripolis 1.05 xG, a combined 2.34. The scoreboard read 3-3 for 6 actual goals. Volos NFC beat their projection by 1.7 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Asteras Tripolis outscored their 1.05 projection by 2.0. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Volos NFC attack 0.95 / defence 1.03 against Asteras Tripolis attack 0.99 / defence 1.04, drawn from 26/26 games (PrevSeason).
On the result, the model split it Volos NFC 42% | Draw 28% | Asteras Tripolis 30%, with Volos NFC to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 28%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 6, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 68% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 47% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Volos NFC 61%, Asteras Tripolis 27%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Volos NFC's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 61% of their matches — today it did.
Asteras Tripolis's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 33% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 42% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — Volos NFC 1.21 PPG, Asteras Tripolis 1.24 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. Volos NFC (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.38 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.25 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Asteras Tripolis (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 0.81 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.12 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.