PAS Giannina 2-2 OFI – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAS Giannina at 39%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAS Giannina vs OFI fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Zosimades plays host to PAS Giannina versus OFI in Super League 1, Regular Season - 8. Kick-off: Sunday 16 October 2022 at 16:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAS Giannina have collected 0.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 1W 1D 8L. Last five: L W L L L. They are averaging 0.50 goals per game and conceding 2.50 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.50 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. PAS Giannina have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
PAS Giannina's form when playing at home: 4W 3D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Zosimades this term (1.50 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.10 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. Their home PPG of 1.50 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at Stadio Zosimades than their overall form suggests.
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 2W 1D 7L from 10 games (0.70 PPG). Last five: W L D L L. Their scoring rate of 0.60 per game is modest, conceding 1.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. OFI have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
OFI's away record: 2W 3D 5L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (0.90 PPG). Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.80 conceded per game.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 0.40 PPG for PAS Giannina against 0.70 for OFI. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAS Giannina lead 0W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 2 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 2 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Jan 2022, ended 1–1 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
PAS Giannina half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 53% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (40 games, 19 at away): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 42% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 47% of games (away games); they fail to score in 30% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 38% versus OFI 55%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 38% | OFI 50%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.43 xG and OFI 1.25 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 1.032 / defence 1.358 | OFI attack 0.886 / defence 1.098. League average goals — home 1.259 / away 1.039. Data: 33 PAS Giannina games / 33 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 39% | Draw 30% | OFI 31%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 2.56 | Draw 3.33 | OFI 3.23. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 50% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.68. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 50%/50% — the total xG of 2.68 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is PAS Giannina at 39% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAS Giannina if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
The Poisson model projects 2.68 xG in total — Over 2.5 at 50% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 56% probability to BTTS Yes based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: PAS Giannina 50% | OFI 50%.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 8 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 16 Oct 2022, 16:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 39% | Draw 30% | OFI 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 50% | BTTS 56% | xG PAS Giannina 1.43 / OFI 1.25 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 1.032 / def 1.358 | OFI attack 0.886 / def 1.098 | league avg home 1.259 / away 1.039 • Poisson stance: PAS Giannina (39%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.43
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.25
OFI xG
56%
BTTS
77%
Over 1.5
50%
Over 2.5
28%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs OFI kick off?
PAS Giannina vs OFI kicked off at 16:00 on Sunday 16 October 2022 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs OFI?
PAS Giannina 2 - 2 OFI.
Where is PAS Giannina vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs OFI part of?
PAS Giannina vs OFI is a Regular Season - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 39% chance of winning, OFI a 31% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PAS Giannina the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both PAS Giannina and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 50%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and OFI?
Record (2 meetings): PAS Giannina 0W | Draws 2 | OFI 0W.
What form are PAS Giannina and OFI in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 1W-1D-8L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.50 / GA 2.50 | L5 L-W-L-L-L. OFI (all comps): 2W-1D-7L in 10 | 0.70 PPG | GF 0.60 / GA 1.80 | L5 W-L-D-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAS Giannina's attack at 1.03x the league average against OFI's defence at 1.10x — combine the two and it projects 1.43 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OFI's attack (0.89x) against PAS Giannina's defence (1.36x) — and the away total comes out at 1.25.
These ratings are built from 33/33 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 13.9% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-1 (8.8%), 0-0 (8.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 31% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAS Giannina Win
39%
2.55
30%
3.35
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.3%
Draw
Most likely
1 – 0
9.8%
Home win
2 – 1
8.8%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.43
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.68
1.25
OFI xG
2.55
39%
Home win
3.35
30%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
75%
Over 1.5
1.33
25%
Under 1.5
4.00
50%
Over 2.5
2.00
50%
Under 2.5
2.00
28%
Over 3.5
3.57
72%
Under 3.5
1.39
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.28
Clean Sheet
29%
3.49
24%
4.17
Win to Nil
11%
8.91
7%
13.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 6.9 | 8.6 | 5.4 | 2.2 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 1 | 9.8 | 12.3 | 7.7 | 3.2 | 1.0 | 0.2 |
| 2 | 7.0 | 8.8 | 5.5 | 2.3 | 0.7 | 0.2 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 4.2 | 2.6 | 1.1 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.5 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.9%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 1.43 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.25 for OFI, a combined total of 2.68.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 39%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAS Giannina come into this having played 40 games, going 11W 10D 19L for 1.08 points per game. Their last five reads L-W-L-L-L. It's still early in the season for PAS Giannina, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.20 PPG from 40 outings (12W 12D 16L), a run that reads W-L-D-L-L across their last five. It's still early in the season for OFI, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.08 PPG for PAS Giannina against 1.20 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAS Giannina's home form reads 8W 5D 6L across 19 games on their own ground, a 1.53 PPG return. That's noticeably better than their 1.08 PPG overall — PAS Giannina are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
Away from home, OFI have taken 1.26 points per game from 19 outings (6W 6D 7L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.92 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.12 scored and 1.42 conceded.
Last 40 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Early Season
OFI
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and OFI in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 11W 10D 19L in their last 40 games (1.08 PPG), while OFI have gone 12W 12D 16L in their last 40 (1.20 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or OFI away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.53 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.53 PPG; OFI away: 1.26 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 30% of their recent games, OFI in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 4-0 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAS Giannina have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
PAS Giannina
6
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and OFI?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 0, OFI have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when OFI 4-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 26% of the time. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 53%, OFI 42% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 47% (PAS Giannina) and 47% (OFI).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 37% of their matches; OFI in 32%; OFI in 42%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 53% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 42% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 47% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 47% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and OFI tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, OFI in 79% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAS Giannina and OFI share the spoils in a 2-2 draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
The points were shared at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 8, as PAS Giannina and OFI drew 2-2 in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.43 xG and OFI 1.25 xG, a combined 2.68. The scoreboard read 2-2 for 4 actual goals. Both sides finished within a goal of their individual projections, so the scoreline sat close to the model's expected shape. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 1.03 / defence 1.36 against OFI attack 0.89 / defence 1.10, drawn from 33/33 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 39% | Draw 30% | OFI 31%, with PAS Giannina to win its most likely call at 39%. The actual draw had been the model's second-ranked read at 30%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 50%. The game delivered 4, so it went over — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 77% and landed. Over 3.5 was 28% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match saw both sides score — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 44% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 38%, OFI 50%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (40 games, 19 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 38% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and conceded here.
OFI's trading profile (40 games, 19 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 55% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 1.08 PPG, OFI 1.20 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the draw fit that even billing. OFI (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.95 average — above their attacking norm.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.