PAS Giannina 0-1 OFI – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates OFI at 40% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this PAS Giannina vs OFI encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Zosimades plays host to PAS Giannina versus OFI in Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2. Kick-off: Saturday 1 April 2023 at 17:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAS Giannina have collected 0.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 0W 6D 4L. Last five: D D L L L. They are averaging 0.40 goals per game and conceding 1.00 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAS Giannina's form when playing at home: 2W 5D 3L across 10 games at Stadio Zosimades this term (1.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.30 conceded per game. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.60 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at Stadio Zosimades than their overall form suggests.
OFI's overall Super League 1 record this term: 3W 3D 4L from 10 games (1.20 PPG). Last five: L W L L D. Their scoring rate of 0.90 per game is modest, conceding 1.20 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for OFI, so this record blends games from this season and last.
OFI's away record: 3W 4D 3L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (1.30 PPG). Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game.
The travelling side arrive in better shape. OFI are 0.60 PPG clear of PAS Giannina in recent Super League 1 fixtures (1.20 vs 0.60). Backing the visitors outright or on Draw No Bet are both valid approaches where the price allows.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAS Giannina lead 0W to 0W over the last 4 encounters, with 4 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 4 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 4 Feb 2023, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading
PAS Giannina half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at home): they score before half-time in 66% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 76% of the time; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (home games); they fail to score in 40% of games.
OFI half-time and goal-timing data (60 games, 29 at away): they score before half-time in 72% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 55% of the time; BTTS occurs in 45% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 48% of games (away games); they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 45% versus OFI 48%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 40% | OFI 47%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 0.93 xG and OFI 1.27 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.789 / defence 1.035 | OFI attack 1.231 / defence 0.948. League average goals — home 1.246 / away 0.998. PAS Giannina's attack strength of 0.789 is below the league average — the 0.93 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. OFI have an above-average attack strength of 1.231 — the away xG of 1.27 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. Data: 52 PAS Giannina games / 52 OFI games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 23% | Draw 36% | OFI 40%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 4.35 | Draw 2.78 | OFI 2.50. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 38% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.20. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 62% — total xG of 2.20 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is OFI at 40% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on OFI if the outright odds are short.
The Poisson model projects 2.20 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 38% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 48% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates are neutral: PAS Giannina 50% | OFI 50%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs OFI | Competition: Super League 1, Relegation Round - 2 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Saturday 1 Apr 2023, 17:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 23% | Draw 36% | OFI 40% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 38% | BTTS 48% | xG PAS Giannina 0.93 / OFI 1.27 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.789 / def 1.035 | OFI attack 1.231 / def 0.948 | league avg home 1.246 / away 0.998 • Poisson stance: OFI (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
0.93
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.27
OFI xG
48%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
38%
Over 2.5
18%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs OFI kick off?
PAS Giannina vs OFI kicked off at 17:30 on Saturday 1 April 2023 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs OFI?
PAS Giannina 0 - 1 OFI.
Where is PAS Giannina vs OFI being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs OFI part of?
PAS Giannina vs OFI is a Relegation Round - 2 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs OFI?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 23% chance of winning, OFI a 40% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making OFI the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs OFI?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both PAS Giannina and OFI will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs OFI have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 38%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and OFI?
Record (4 meetings): PAS Giannina 0W | Draws 4 | OFI 0W.
What form are PAS Giannina and OFI in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 0W-6D-4L in 10 | 0.60 PPG | GF 0.40 / GA 1.00 | L5 D-D-L-L-L. OFI (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 1.20 | L5 L-W-L-L-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAS Giannina's attack at 0.79x the league average against OFI's defence at 0.95x — combine the two and it projects 0.93 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — OFI's attack (1.23x) against PAS Giannina's defence (1.03x) — and the away total comes out at 1.27.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.7%), 0-1 (12.3%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
OFI Win
23%
4.29
36%
2.75
40%
2.48
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
14.0%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
11.0%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.93
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.20
1.27
OFI xG
4.29
23%
Home win
2.75
36%
Draw
2.48
40%
Away win
Goals Markets
65%
Over 1.5
1.54
35%
Under 1.5
2.86
38%
Over 2.5
2.63
62%
Under 2.5
1.61
18%
Over 3.5
5.56
82%
Under 3.5
1.22
7%
Over 4.5
14.29
93%
Under 4.5
1.08
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
28%
3.56
39%
2.54
Win to Nil
7%
15.30
16%
6.30
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.0 | 14.0 | 8.9 | 3.8 | 1.2 | 0.3 |
| 1 | 10.3 | 13.1 | 8.3 | 3.5 | 1.1 | 0.3 |
| 2 | 4.8 | 6.1 | 3.9 | 1.6 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 1.5 | 1.9 | 1.2 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 0.3 | 0.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs OFI?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and OFI expected to score?
The model projects 0.93 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.27 for OFI, a combined total of 2.20.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs OFI?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAS Giannina come into this having played 60 games, going 14W 20D 26L for 1.03 points per game. Their last five reads D-D-L-L-L. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
On the other side, OFI sit at 1.18 PPG from 60 outings (17W 20D 23L), a run that reads L-W-L-L-D across their last five. The sample for OFI is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.03 PPG for PAS Giannina against 1.18 for OFI. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
PAS Giannina's home form reads 10W 10D 9L across 29 games on their own ground, a 1.38 PPG return.
Away from home, OFI have taken 1.28 points per game from 29 outings (9W 10D 10L).
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAS Giannina are averaging 0.93 goals scored and 1.42 conceded per game recently; OFI are on 1.07 scored and 1.33 conceded.
Last 60 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
OFI
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and OFI in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 14W 20D 26L in their last 60 games (1.03 PPG), while OFI have gone 17W 20D 23L in their last 60 (1.18 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or OFI away?
PAS Giannina's home record (1.38 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.38 PPG; OFI away: 1.28 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or OFI been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 25% of their recent games, OFI in 30%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 8 times since September 2021 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 6 April 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: OFI won 4-0 on 6 Apr 2024, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAS Giannina have gone 0W 3D 1L from 4 meetings on their own ground against OFI — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 8 Meetings
0
PAS Giannina
6
Draws
2
OFI
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and OFI?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 0, OFI have won 2, and 6 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and OFI last play each other?
They last met on 6 April 2024, when OFI 4-0 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and OFI?
OFI have the better head-to-head record, with 2 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAS Giannina are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 66% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
OFI are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 72% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 10% of those situations.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 52%, OFI 45% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 48% (PAS Giannina) and 48% (OFI).
On the defensive side: PAS Giannina keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; OFI in 31%; PAS Giannina have failed to score in 28% of games; OFI in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / OFI away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play OFI?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 45% of OFI's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs OFI usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 48% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 48% of OFI's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and OFI tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 66% of their recent matches, OFI in 72% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as OFI edge out PAS Giannina 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
OFI beat PAS Giannina 0-1 at Stadio Zosimades, Relegation Round - 2, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 0.93 xG and OFI 1.27 xG, a combined 2.20. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAS Giannina fell 0.9 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.79 / defence 1.03 against OFI attack 1.23 / defence 0.95, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 23% | Draw 36% | OFI 40%, with OFI to win its most likely call at 40%. The result followed the model's preferred path, landing its top-rated outcome.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 38%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 43% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 40%, OFI 47%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (60 games, 29 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 45% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 40% of games, a blank that repeated today.
OFI's trading profile (60 games, 29 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 30% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAS Giannina 1.03 PPG, OFI 1.18 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the OFI win broke the near-deadlock. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.14 scoring average — below par going forward. OFI (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 1.28 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). A strong night for the model: the result sat comfortably inside what the pre-match data projected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.