PAS Giannina 0-1 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model favours AEK Athens FC (42%) — form and H2H data both point in the same direction as PAS Giannina face AEK Athens FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
PAS Giannina host AEK Athens FC at Stadio Zosimades in Super League 1, Regular Season - 12. Kick-off is scheduled for Sunday 26 November 2023 at 15:00 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, PAS Giannina stand at 0W 4D 6L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.40 PPG. Last five: L L L D D. They are averaging 0.80 goals per game and conceding 1.80 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. This season is still relatively young for PAS Giannina, so this record blends games from this season and last.
In front of their own supporters this season, PAS Giannina have posted 3W 2D 5L at Stadio Zosimades — 1.10 PPG. At home they are averaging 0.90 goals scored and 1.20 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 1.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.40 — PAS Giannina are significantly better at Stadio Zosimades than their overall form suggests.
AEK Athens FC — All Games: 7W 2D 1L from 10 Super League 1 fixtures this season — 2.30 PPG. Last five: W W W D W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.00 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
When travelling in Super League 1 this season, AEK Athens FC have posted 7W 2D 1L from 10 away outings — 2.30 PPG. Away from home they average 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. AEK Athens FC are 1.90 PPG ahead (2.30 vs 0.40), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H
The previous 6 encounters between these sides heavily favour AEK Athens FC, who boast 5 victories compared to 1 for PAS Giannina.
Goals have been a feature of this fixture. The last 6 meetings have averaged 3.0 per game — a rate that gives the Over 2.5 market a solid historical foundation. The most recent clash, on 3 Jan 2023, ended 2–1 with PAS Giannina winning.
The H2H provides genuine backing for the away side. AEK Athens FC have won 5 of 6 previous encounters, and at 3.0 goals per game, the goals market also points upward. The away win and Over 2.5 combination has a historical case worth noting.
Trading Patterns
PAS Giannina in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at home): they score before half-time in 57% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 78% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 50% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 52% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 52% of games (home games); they fail to score in 36% of games.
AEK Athens FC in-play and half-time data (44 games, 21 at away): they score before half-time in 67% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 69% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAS Giannina 57% versus AEK Athens FC 36%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAS Giannina 48% | AEK Athens FC 52%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAS Giannina 1.13 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.50 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAS Giannina attack 0.839 / defence 1.134 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.149 / defence 0.880. League average goals — home 1.531 / away 1.152. Data: 37 PAS Giannina games / 37 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAS Giannina 25% | Draw 33% | AEK Athens FC 42%. Fair-value odds: PAS Giannina 4.00 | Draw 3.03 | AEK Athens FC 2.38. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 33% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 49% | BTTS probability 56% | Total xG 2.63. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 49%/51% — the total xG of 2.63 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 56% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Analysis Verdict
On the Poisson output, AEK Athens FC are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. With a 33% draw probability, Draw No Bet on AEK Athens FC offers a more defensible entry point than the straight win.
Poisson projects 2.63 total expected goals, pointing to Under 2.5 at 49% probability — Poisson-only — limited corroboration conviction — though H2H averaging only 3.0 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 56%. This conflicts with form data: PAS Giannina 30% | AEK Athens FC 50% from recent games — a notable divergence.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 12 | Venue: Stadio Zosimades • Kick-off: Sunday 26 Nov 2023, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAS Giannina 25% | Draw 33% | AEK Athens FC 42% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 49% | BTTS 56% | xG PAS Giannina 1.13 / AEK Athens FC 1.50 • Poisson strength factors: PAS Giannina attack 0.839 / def 1.134 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.149 / def 0.880 | league avg home 1.531 / away 1.152 • Poisson stance: AEK Athens FC (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.13
PAS Giannina xG
Expected Goals
1.50
AEK Athens FC xG
56%
BTTS
78%
Over 1.5
49%
Over 2.5
27%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 15:00 on Sunday 26 November 2023 at Stadio Zosimades.
What was the final score in PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC?
PAS Giannina 0 - 1 AEK Athens FC.
Where is PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Zosimades.
What competition is PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC part of?
PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 12 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives PAS Giannina a 25% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 42% chance, and a 33% chance of a draw — making AEK Athens FC the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 56% probability that both PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 49%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC?
Record (6 meetings): PAS Giannina 1W | Draws 0 | AEK Athens FC 5W.
What form are PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC in?
PAS Giannina (all comps): 0W-4D-6L in 10 | 0.40 PPG | GF 0.80 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-L-L-D-D. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 7W-2D-1L in 10 | 2.30 PPG | GF 2.00 / GA 0.80 | L5 W-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Model Mechanics
Working from PAS Giannina's attack rating (0.84) and AEK Athens FC's defence rating (0.88), the model arrives at 1.13 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, AEK Athens FC's attack versus PAS Giannina's defence, projects 1.50 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 37/37 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.8%. Close behind: 0-1 (9.2%), 1-2 (9.2%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
AEK Athens FC Win
25%
4.02
33%
3.03
42%
2.37
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
12.2%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
10.8%
Away win
1 – 2
9.2%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.13
PAS Giannina xG
Total xG
2.63
1.50
AEK Athens FC xG
4.02
25%
Home win
3.03
33%
Draw
2.37
42%
Away win
Goals Markets
74%
Over 1.5
1.35
26%
Under 1.5
3.85
49%
Over 2.5
2.04
51%
Under 2.5
1.96
27%
Over 3.5
3.70
73%
Under 3.5
1.37
13%
Over 4.5
7.69
87%
Under 4.5
1.15
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
56%
BTTS Yes
1.78
44%
BTTS No
2.29
Clean Sheet
22%
4.49
32%
3.10
Win to Nil
6%
18.04
14%
7.35
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.2 | 10.8 | 8.1 | 4.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 |
| 1 | 8.1 | 12.2 | 9.2 | 4.6 | 1.7 | 0.5 |
| 2 | 4.6 | 6.9 | 5.2 | 2.6 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 1.7 | 2.6 | 2.0 | 1.0 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.5 | 0.7 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.2 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.8%.
How many goals are PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.13 expected goals for PAS Giannina and 1.50 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.63.
How confident is the prediction model for PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
Where Both Sides Stand
PAS Giannina's recent record stands at 8W 17D 19L from 44 games, a 0.93 PPG return, with L-L-L-D-D in the last five. The sample for PAS Giannina is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC, meanwhile, have gone 31W 8D 5L across 44 games — 2.30 PPG, with W-W-W-D-W in their last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
The points-per-game comparison favours AEK Athens FC by 1.37 — a real, if not enormous, edge over PAS Giannina heading into this one.
Home Ground vs the Road
At home specifically, PAS Giannina have managed 6W 7D 8L from 21 games — 1.19 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AEK Athens FC's away record stands at 14W 4D 3L across 21 trips, a 2.19 PPG haul.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, AEK Athens FC come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
The Goals Picture
PAS Giannina are averaging 1.00 goals scored and 1.55 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.93 scored and 0.57 conceded.
Defensively: AEK Athens FC in 59% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 44 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAS Giannina
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
PAS Giannina have gone 8W 17D 19L in their last 44 games (0.93 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 31W 8D 5L in their last 44 (2.30 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAS Giannina at home or AEK Athens FC away?
AEK Athens FC's away record (2.19 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAS Giannina at home: 1.19 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 2.19 PPG.
Have PAS Giannina or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAS Giannina have kept a clean sheet in 16% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 59%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
A Look Back
The fixture history between PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC runs to 8 recorded meetings, the earliest dating back to November 2021. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. It has been a while since the last meeting — 28 February 2024, some 2 years back — so squads and form on both sides may look very different now.
Digging Into the Numbers
AEK Athens FC go into this on the back of 2 straight wins in the series — the current momentum sits squarely with them.
The biggest gap between the sides came on 11 May 2022, when AEK Athens FC won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
PAS Giannina's record when hosting AEK Athens FC specifically: 1W 0D 3L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 8 Meetings
1
PAS Giannina
0
Draws
7
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC?
From 8 meetings on record, PAS Giannina have won 1, AEK Athens FC have won 7, and 0 have been drawn.
When did PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 28 February 2024, when AEK Athens FC 4-2 PAS Giannina.
Who has won more matches between PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC?
AEK Athens FC have the better head-to-head record, with 7 wins from 8 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
Half-Time Trends
PAS Giannina see a goal before the break in 57% of their matches.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 67% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 43% of the time.
The Numbers That Matter
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAS Giannina 52%, AEK Athens FC 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 52% (PAS Giannina) and 43% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: AEK Athens FC in 52%; PAS Giannina have failed to score in 38% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAS Giannina home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAS Giannina play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 52% of PAS Giannina's recent matches and 38% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAS Giannina vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 52% of PAS Giannina's recent games and 43% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAS Giannina and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
PAS Giannina have had a goal before half-time in 57% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 67% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as AEK Athens FC edge out PAS Giannina 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
AEK Athens FC beat PAS Giannina 0-1 at Stadio Zosimades, Regular Season - 12, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAS Giannina 1.13 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.50 xG, a combined 2.63. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAS Giannina fell 1.1 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAS Giannina attack 0.84 / defence 1.13 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.15 / defence 0.88, drawn from 37/37 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAS Giannina 25% | Draw 33% | AEK Athens FC 42%, with AEK Athens FC to win its most likely call at 42%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 49%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 78% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 56% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAS Giannina 48%, AEK Athens FC 52%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 47%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAS Giannina's trading profile (44 games, 21 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 57% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 36% of games, a blank that repeated today.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (44 games, 21 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 36% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 59% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
On form, AEK Athens FC arrived the stronger side — 2.30 PPG against 0.93. That form edge translated into the three points. PAS Giannina (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.05 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (miss), form (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.