PAOK 1-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson model rates PAOK at 40%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis make the trip to Stadio Toumbas to face PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 16. The match kicks off on Wednesday 4 January 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 1.80 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 3D 2L. Last five: W W W W D. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 0.90 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Stadio Toumbas, PAOK have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 clean sheets from 10 home games (50%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Toumbas.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 3D 3L from 10 games (1.50 PPG). Last five: D W W D W. Their scoring rate of 1.40 per game is modest, conceding 0.80 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.80 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 4W 2D 4L from 10 away games — 1.40 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.20 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 5 away clean sheets from 10 games (50%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.80 for PAOK, 1.50 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
Trading Data
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at home): they score before half-time in 80% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; they lead at the break 47% of the time; BTTS occurs in 48% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (51 games, 25 at away): they score before half-time in 64% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 32% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time; they fail to score in 39% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 47% versus Aris Thessalonikis 29%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAOK 41% | Aris Thessalonikis 35%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.28 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.96 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.175 / defence 0.915 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.060 / defence 0.875. League average goals — home 1.243 / away 0.991. Data: 41 PAOK games / 41 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 40% | Draw 36% | Aris Thessalonikis 24%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.50 | Draw 2.78 | Aris Thessalonikis 4.17. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 36% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 39% | BTTS probability 49% | Total xG 2.24. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 61% — total xG of 2.24 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 49% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 40% — marginal model lean. Draw probability of 36% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.24 combined xG gives a 39% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 49%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 20% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 16 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Wednesday 4 Jan 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 40% | Draw 36% | Aris Thessalonikis 24% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 39% | BTTS 49% | xG PAOK 1.28 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.96 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.175 / def 0.915 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.060 / def 0.875 | league avg home 1.243 / away 0.991 • Poisson stance: PAOK (40%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.28
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.96
Aris Thessalonikis xG
49%
BTTS
69%
Over 1.5
39%
Over 2.5
19%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:00 on Wednesday 4 January 2023 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK 1 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 16 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 40% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 24% chance, and a 36% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 49% probability that both PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 39%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-3D-2L in 10 | 1.80 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 0.90 | L5 W-W-W-W-D. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-3D-3L in 10 | 1.50 PPG | GF 1.40 / GA 0.80 | L5 D-W-W-D-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.18x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 0.88x — combine the two and it projects 1.28 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (1.06x) against PAOK's defence (0.92x) — and the away total comes out at 0.96.
These ratings are built from 41/41 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.8% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (12.3%), 1-0 (11.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
40%
2.51
36%
2.76
24%
4.16
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.6%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.1%
Draw
0 – 0
10.6%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.28
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.24
0.96
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.51
40%
Home win
2.76
36%
Draw
4.16
24%
Away win
Goals Markets
66%
Over 1.5
1.52
34%
Under 1.5
2.94
39%
Over 2.5
2.56
61%
Under 2.5
1.64
19%
Over 3.5
5.26
81%
Under 3.5
1.23
8%
Over 4.5
12.50
92%
Under 4.5
1.09
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
49%
BTTS Yes
2.06
51%
BTTS No
1.94
Clean Sheet
38%
2.62
28%
3.59
Win to Nil
15%
6.58
7%
14.96
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 10.6 | 10.2 | 4.9 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 13.6 | 13.1 | 6.3 | 2.0 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.7 | 8.4 | 4.0 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.7 | 3.6 | 1.7 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.2 | 1.1 | 0.5 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.8%.
How many goals are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.28 expected goals for PAOK and 0.96 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.24.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 40%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 51 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 27W 12D 12L record — W-W-W-W-D across the most recent five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 25W 12D 14L from 51 games, 1.71 PPG, last five D-W-W-D-W. The sample for Aris Thessalonikis is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for PAOK against 1.71 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.00 PPG from 25 outings (15W 5D 5L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 11W 4D 10L from 25 away games — 1.48 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.57 goals scored and 0.86 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.20 scored and 0.78 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis in 29%.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 49% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 51 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
Aris Thessalonikis
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 27W 12D 12L in their last 51 games (1.82 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 25W 12D 14L in their last 51 (1.71 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
PAOK's home record (2.00 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.00 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.48 PPG.
Have PAOK or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 39% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 49%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 80% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 48% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 16% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 64% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 48%, Aris Thessalonikis 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (PAOK) and 32% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 40% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 40%; Aris Thessalonikis in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 48% of PAOK's recent matches and 32% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of PAOK's recent games and 32% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 80% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 64% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Aris Thessalonikis 1-0.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Aris Thessalonikis 1-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 16, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.28 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.96 xG, a combined 2.24. The scoreboard read 1-0 for 1 actual goal. Aris Thessalonikis landed 1.0 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.18 / defence 0.92 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 1.06 / defence 0.88, drawn from 41/41 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 40% | Draw 36% | Aris Thessalonikis 24%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 40%. That is exactly how it finished — the model's leading outcome was vindicated.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 39%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 69% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 49% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 41%, Aris Thessalonikis 35%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (51 games, 25 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 47% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 39% of the time, and duly kept one.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (51 games, 25 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 29% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 49% of the time, and conceded here; they fail to score in 39% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 1.82 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.71 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.88 average — tighter than their form line. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.12 scoring average — below par going forward.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 3 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The numbers read this fixture well — the outcome largely followed the script the data laid out beforehand.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.