PAOK 0-1 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 42%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis make the trip to Stadio Toumbas to face PAOK in Super League 1, Championship Round - 8. The match kicks off on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at 16:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 1.20 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 3D 4L. Last five: L L D L L. They are averaging 0.90 goals per game and conceding 0.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation.
At home at Stadio Toumbas, PAOK have gone 6W 3D 1L this season (10 games, 2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.80 conceded per game. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground. BTTS has landed in 60% of their home matches — a rate that supports the Yes angle in this fixture. Their home PPG of 2.10 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.20 — PAOK are significantly better at Stadio Toumbas than their overall form suggests.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 2D 3L from 10 games (1.70 PPG). Last five: D W W L L. Their scoring rate of 1.10 per game is modest, conceding 0.60 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. Defensively, 0.60 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 5 clean sheets from 10 games (50%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 3W 2D 5L from 10 away games — 1.10 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 0.80 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. Away from home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — a low rate that backs BTTS No when they travel. Their away PPG of 1.10 is notably below their overall 1.70 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
On a straight form reading, Aris Thessalonikis are the stronger side — 0.50 PPG clear of the hosts (1.70 vs 1.20). Backing them with draw insurance is the conservative play if the outright away price appears short.
Trading Data
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 86% of the time; BTTS occurs in 56% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games).
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (33 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 38% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 31% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time; they fail to score in 46% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 48% versus Aris Thessalonikis 27%; no strong lean in either direction. Under 2.5 goals has backing from the in-play data — both teams register low Over 2.5 rates (PAOK 46% | Aris Thessalonikis 30%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.19 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.94 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.177 / defence 1.074 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.831 / defence 1.026. League average goals — home 0.986 / away 1.050. Data: 26 PAOK games / 26 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 42% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 29%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.38 | Draw 3.33 | Aris Thessalonikis 3.45. This is a low-confidence result — no outcome exceeds 45%. The draw at 30% is a primary outcome, not an afterthought.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 36% | BTTS probability 42% | Total xG 2.13. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 64% — total xG of 2.13 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 42% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 42% — marginal model lean. Note a divergence: in-form Aris Thessalonikis (1.70 PPG) cuts against the Poisson lean — consider the strength-adjusted model over surface-level form results. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short. The opposing side holds a 29% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should be staked accordingly.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.13 combined xG gives a 36% probability to Under 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 2.1 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 42%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 60% | Aris Thessalonikis 30% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 8 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Wednesday 11 May 2022, 16:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 42% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 29% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 36% | BTTS 42% | xG PAOK 1.19 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.94 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.177 / def 1.074 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.831 / def 1.026 | league avg home 0.986 / away 1.050 • Poisson stance: PAOK (42%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.19
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.94
Aris Thessalonikis xG
42%
BTTS
63%
Over 1.5
36%
Over 2.5
17%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 16:30 on Wednesday 11 May 2022 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK 0 - 1 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Championship Round - 8 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 42% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 29% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 42% probability that both PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 36%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in?
PAOK (all comps): 3W-3D-4L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 0.90 / GA 0.90 | L5 L-L-D-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-2D-3L in 10 | 1.70 PPG | GF 1.10 / GA 0.60 | L5 D-W-W-L-L.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.18x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.19 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.83x) against PAOK's defence (1.07x) — and the away total comes out at 0.94.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (13.6%), 1-0 (12.5%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 41% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
42%
2.40
30%
3.39
29%
3.47
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
14.2%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
13.3%
Draw
0 – 0
11.9%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.19
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.13
0.94
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.40
42%
Home win
3.39
30%
Draw
3.47
29%
Away win
Goals Markets
63%
Over 1.5
1.59
37%
Under 1.5
2.70
36%
Over 2.5
2.78
64%
Under 2.5
1.56
17%
Over 3.5
5.88
83%
Under 3.5
1.20
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
42%
BTTS Yes
2.36
58%
BTTS No
1.74
Clean Sheet
39%
2.55
30%
3.29
Win to Nil
16%
6.13
9%
11.42
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 11.9 | 11.2 | 5.2 | 1.6 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 14.2 | 13.3 | 6.2 | 1.9 | 0.5 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 8.4 | 7.9 | 3.7 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 3.3 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.0 | 0.9 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.2 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.0%.
How many goals are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.19 expected goals for PAOK and 0.94 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.13.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 42%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 33 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 18W 6D 9L record — L-L-D-L-L across the most recent five.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 15W 8D 10L from 33 games, 1.61 PPG, last five D-W-W-L-L.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for PAOK against 1.61 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PAOK have posted 1.94 PPG from 16 outings (9W 4D 3L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 7W 2D 7L from 16 away games — 1.44 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.67 goals scored and 0.94 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 0.97 scored and 0.79 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
On BTTS specifically: Aris Thessalonikis in 27%.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 48% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 33 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Current Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 18W 6D 9L in their last 33 games (1.82 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 15W 8D 10L in their last 33 (1.61 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
PAOK's home record (1.94 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 1.94 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.44 PPG.
Have PAOK or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 36% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 48%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 31% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 56%, Aris Thessalonikis 38% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (PAOK) and 31% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 31% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 31%; Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 56% of PAOK's recent matches and 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of PAOK's recent games and 31% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Aris Thessalonikis defy the odds to beat PAOK 0-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Aris Thessalonikis beat PAOK 0-1 at Stadio Toumbas, Championship Round - 8, in the Super League 1. With the result on the board, the sections below measure it against everything the model and the numbers projected in advance.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.19 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.94 xG, a combined 2.13. The scoreboard read 0-1 for 1 actual goal. PAOK fell 1.2 short of their projected output. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.18 / defence 1.07 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.83 / defence 1.03, drawn from 26/26 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 42% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 29%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 42%. The actual Aris Thessalonikis win had been the model's second-ranked read at 29%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 36%. The game delivered 1, so it stayed under — a call the model got right. Over 1.5 had been 63% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 42% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 38% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 46%, Aris Thessalonikis 30%), a base rate that agreed with today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 38%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (33 games, 16 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 48% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 36% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (33 games, 16 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 27% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 48% of the time, and duly kept one.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 1.82 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.61 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the Aris Thessalonikis win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.75 scoring average — below par going forward. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.94 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). The model got the gist right while missing on the margins.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.