PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis – Pre-Match Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 48%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis make the trip to Toumba Stadium to face PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Saturday 12 September 2026 at 15:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 1.40 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 3W 5D 2L. Last five: L W D D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.50 goals per game, with 1.10 conceded. 3 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. Both teams have scored in 60% of their games — a high BTTS rate that carries real weight in the goals markets. PAOK haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
At home at Toumba Stadium, PAOK have gone 7W 3D 0L this season (10 games, 2.40 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Toumba Stadium. Their home PPG of 2.40 is noticeably stronger than their overall 1.40 — PAOK are significantly better at Toumba Stadium than their overall form suggests.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 3D 2L from 10 games (1.80 PPG). Last five: W W W W W. They are scoring at 1.50 per game and conceding 1.00. 4 clean sheets in 10 outings (40%) underlines their defensive solidity. Aris Thessalonikis haven't played a Super League 1 game yet this season, so this record is entirely from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 4W 3D 3L from 10 away games — 1.50 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.00 goals scored and 1.00 conceded per game. 4 clean sheets from 10 away games (40%) shows they are capable of shutting up shop on the road.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.40 for PAOK, 1.80 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 4W to 3W over the last 10 encounters, with 3 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
The 10 previous meetings have averaged 2.0 goals per game — a neutral rate that provides no strong lean on the goals market from the H2H alone. The most recent clash, on 8 Feb 2026, ended 0–0 with a draw.
The head-to-head offers no strong directional steer in either the result or goals markets. Form, the predictive model and current market pricing should carry more weight than the historical record for this fixture.
Trading Data
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at home): they score before half-time in 56% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 50% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 31% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 50% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (32 games, 16 at away): they score before half-time in 69% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 58% of the time; BTTS occurs in 50% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (away games); they fail to score in 31% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 44% versus Aris Thessalonikis 50%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 56% | Aris Thessalonikis 34%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.47 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.111 / defence 0.888 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.947 / defence 0.974. League average goals — home 1.356 / away 1.072. Data: 26 PAOK games / 26 Aris Thessalonikis games used (PrevSeason). Note: current-season sample is too small — prior-season data is carrying the calculation. Model confidence is reduced; treat probabilities as directional rather than precise.
Result probabilities: PAOK 48% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 21%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 2.08 | Draw 3.33 | Aris Thessalonikis 4.76. PAOK hold a narrow Poisson edge at 48% — the draw (30%) is close enough to merit draw-inclusive market consideration.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 48% — moderate model lean. Draw probability of 30% warrants consideration of Double Chance or Draw No Bet on PAOK if the outright odds are short.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 48%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 50% BTTS from recent games.
The Poisson model is drawing on PrevSeason data (26 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Toumba Stadium • Kick-off: Saturday 12 Sep 2026, 15:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 48% | Draw 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 21% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 48% | xG PAOK 1.47 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.90 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.111 / def 0.888 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.947 / def 0.974 | league avg home 1.356 / away 1.072 • Poisson stance: PAOK (48%) — moderate lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.47
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.90
Aris Thessalonikis xG
48%
BTTS
70%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
22%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis is scheduled to kick off at 15:00 on Saturday 12 September 2026 at Toumba Stadium.
Where is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Toumba Stadium.
What competition is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 48% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 21% chance, and a 30% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (10 meetings): PAOK 4W | Draws 3 | Aris Thessalonikis 3W.
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in?
No current-season fixtures available — form shown from previous season data. PAOK (all comps): 3W-5D-2L in 10 | 1.40 PPG | GF 1.50 / GA 1.10 | L5 L-W-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.11x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 0.97x — combine the two and it projects 1.47 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.95x) against PAOK's defence (0.89x) — and the away total comes out at 0.90.
These ratings are built from 26/26 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 1-0 (12.1%), 0-0 (11.0%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 37% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
48%
2.06
30%
3.30
21%
4.71
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
13.7%
Home win
Most likely
1 – 1
12.4%
Draw
2 – 0
10.1%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.47
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.37
0.90
Aris Thessalonikis xG
2.06
48%
Home win
3.30
30%
Draw
4.71
21%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
22%
Over 3.5
4.55
78%
Under 3.5
1.28
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.10
52%
BTTS No
1.91
Clean Sheet
41%
2.46
23%
4.34
Win to Nil
20%
5.08
5%
20.45
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.3 | 8.4 | 3.8 | 1.1 | 0.3 | – |
| 1 | 13.7 | 12.4 | 5.6 | 1.7 | 0.4 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.1 | 9.1 | 4.1 | 1.2 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 4.9 | 4.4 | 2.0 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 1.8 | 1.6 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.5 | 0.5 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.47 expected goals for PAOK and 0.90 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 48%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 32 outings, PAOK have picked up 2.00 PPG on a 18W 10D 4L record — L-W-D-D-D across the most recent five. PAOK haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 11W 13D 8L from 32 games, 1.44 PPG, last five W-W-W-W-W. Aris Thessalonikis haven't played enough this season for a current-season-only sample, so this includes results carried over from last season.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.56 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aris Thessalonikis.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.50 PPG from 16 outings (12W 4D 0L). That's noticeably better than their 2.00 PPG overall — PAOK are a different proposition at home than their general record suggests.
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 6W 4D 6L from 16 away games — 1.38 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.84 goals scored and 0.78 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.06 scored and 1.00 conceded. PAOK's scoring rate against Aris Thessalonikis's tighter defensive record is one of the more interesting match-ups in the goals markets here.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 32 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Pre-Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Pre-Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 18W 10D 4L in their last 32 games (2.00 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 11W 13D 8L in their last 32 (1.44 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
PAOK's home record (2.50 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.50 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.38 PPG.
Have PAOK or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 50% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 34%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK see a goal before the break in 56% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 44% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 69% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 38% of the time, though they've let that lead slip 19% of the time they've held it — worth watching if they're only ahead by one.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 31%, Aris Thessalonikis 50% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 50% (PAOK) and 38% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 69% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 31%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 31% of PAOK's recent matches and 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 50% of PAOK's recent games and 38% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 56% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 69% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
The match report will be available once the game has finished.