PAOK 0-0 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 60%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis make the trip to Stadio Toumbas to face PAOK in Super League 1, Regular Season - 4. The match kicks off on Sunday 17 September 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: W L W W L. Offensively they are averaging 1.60 goals per game, with 1.40 conceded. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings provides some defensive foundation. PAOK have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
At home at Stadio Toumbas, PAOK have gone 6W 1D 3L this season (10 games, 1.90 PPG). They are averaging 2.10 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 4 home clean sheets from 10 games (40%) — a solid defensive base on their own ground.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 4W 1D 5L from 10 games (1.30 PPG). Last five: L D L L W. They are scoring at 1.90 per game and conceding 1.80. 1 clean sheet from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 80% of their matches this season — one of the stronger BTTS rates in the division, making Yes a well-evidenced play. Aris Thessalonikis have played only a handful of Super League 1 games so far this season, so this record also draws on matches from last season.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.60 conceded per game. BTTS has landed in 60% of their away games — meaningful support for the Yes angle in this specific context. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.30 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for PAOK, 1.30 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 2W to 0W over the last 2 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 4.0 goals per game across 2 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 30 Apr 2023, ended 3–2 with PAOK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 4.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 20 at home): they score before half-time in 85% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 43% of the time; they lead at the break 59% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 55% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (39 games, 20 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 40% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games).
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 41% versus Aris Thessalonikis 49%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 49% | Aris Thessalonikis 62%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.95 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.93 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.099 / defence 0.843 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.937 / defence 1.034. League average goals — home 1.712 / away 1.178. Data: 29 PAOK games / 29 Aris Thessalonikis games used (Blended). A blend of current and prior-season data is applied to stabilise estimates early in the campaign.
Result probabilities: PAOK 60% | Draw 23% | Aris Thessalonikis 17%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.67 | Draw 4.35 | Aris Thessalonikis 5.88. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (60%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 55% | BTTS probability 53% | Total xG 2.88. Over 2.5 holds a meaningful probability edge at 55% — the 2.88 total xG provides moderate support, though the model is not projecting a high-scoring game. BTTS probability of 53% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 60% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 23% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.88 combined xG gives a 55% probability to Over 2.5 — reasonable, supported by form averaging 3.0 goals per game.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is Yes at 53%. Form rates are neutral: PAOK 40% | Aris Thessalonikis 60%.
The Poisson model is drawing on Blended data (29 games minimum) — early-season projections carry additional uncertainty. Weight the live form and odds signals accordingly.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 4 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 17 Sep 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 60% | Draw 23% | Aris Thessalonikis 17% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 55% | BTTS 53% | xG PAOK 1.95 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.93 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.099 / def 0.843 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.937 / def 1.034 | league avg home 1.712 / away 1.178 • Poisson stance: PAOK (60%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.95
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.93
Aris Thessalonikis xG
53%
BTTS
79%
Over 1.5
55%
Over 2.5
32%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 17 September 2023 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK 0 - 0 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Regular Season - 4 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 60% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 17% chance, and a 23% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 53% probability that both PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 55%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (2 meetings): PAOK 2W | Draws 0 | Aris Thessalonikis 0W.
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.60 / GA 1.40 | L5 W-L-W-W-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 4W-1D-5L in 10 | 1.30 PPG | GF 1.90 / GA 1.80 | L5 L-D-L-L-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.10x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 1.03x — combine the two and it projects 1.95 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.94x) against PAOK's defence (0.84x) — and the away total comes out at 0.93.
The sample (29/29 games) mixes this season and last, since the current campaign is still relatively young.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 11.5% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (10.7%), 2-1 (9.9%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 32% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
60%
1.66
23%
4.30
17%
6.05
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
11.0%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
10.7%
Home win
1 – 1
10.2%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.95
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.88
0.93
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.66
60%
Home win
4.30
23%
Draw
6.05
17%
Away win
Goals Markets
78%
Over 1.5
1.28
22%
Under 1.5
4.55
55%
Over 2.5
1.82
45%
Under 2.5
2.22
32%
Over 3.5
3.12
68%
Under 3.5
1.47
16%
Over 4.5
6.25
84%
Under 4.5
1.19
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
53%
BTTS Yes
1.90
47%
BTTS No
2.12
Clean Sheet
39%
2.53
14%
6.99
Win to Nil
24%
4.21
2%
42.28
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 5.6 | 5.2 | 2.4 | 0.8 | 0.2 | – |
| 1 | 11.0 | 10.2 | 4.7 | 1.5 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 10.7 | 9.9 | 4.6 | 1.4 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 6.9 | 6.4 | 3.0 | 0.9 | 0.2 | – |
| 4 | 3.4 | 3.1 | 1.5 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | 1.3 | 1.2 | 0.6 | 0.2 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 11.5%.
How many goals are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.95 expected goals for PAOK and 0.93 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.88.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 60%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 39 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.87 PPG on a 21W 10D 8L record — W-L-W-W-L across the most recent five. It's still early in the season for PAOK, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 16W 6D 17L from 39 games, 1.38 PPG, last five L-D-L-L-W. It's still early in the season for Aris Thessalonikis, so this record blends in a handful of games from last season too.
Put side by side, PAOK are the form team by 0.49 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Aris Thessalonikis.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PAOK have posted 2.10 PPG from 20 outings (13W 3D 4L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 4W 4D 12L from 20 away games — 0.80 PPG when travelling. That's a step down from their 1.38 PPG overall record — away form has been the weaker part of Aris Thessalonikis's season.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.59 goals scored and 0.87 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.54 scored and 1.21 conceded.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their games — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 39 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Early Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Early Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 21W 10D 8L in their last 39 games (1.87 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 16W 6D 17L in their last 39 (1.38 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
PAOK's home record (2.10 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.10 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 0.80 PPG.
Have PAOK or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 46% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 28%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 85% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 65% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 40%, Aris Thessalonikis 40% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 55% (PAOK) and 50% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 50% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 40%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 40% of PAOK's recent matches and 40% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 55% of PAOK's recent games and 50% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 85% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Stalemate at PAOK's ground as both sides cancel each other out in a goalless draw.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis finished level at 0-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 4, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.95 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.93 xG, a combined 2.88. The scoreboard read 0-0 for 0 actual goals. PAOK fell 1.9 short of their projected output. Aris Thessalonikis landed 0.9 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.10 / defence 0.84 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.94 / defence 1.03, drawn from 29/29 games (Blended).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 60% | Draw 23% | Aris Thessalonikis 17%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 60%. Instead the game produced a draw, an outcome the model had rated at just 23% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 55%. The game delivered 0, so it stayed under — against the model's lean. Over 1.5 had been 79% and missed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 53% and the match did not — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 55% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 49%, Aris Thessalonikis 62%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 45%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (39 games, 20 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 41% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and duly kept one.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (39 games, 20 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 49% of their matches — today it did not; they fail to score in 28% of games, a blank that repeated today.
Form vs Result
On form, PAOK arrived the stronger side — 1.87 PPG against 1.38. The form guide was only half-right: the stronger side did not lose, but could not convert the edge into a win. PAOK (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.85 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 0.80 average — tighter than their form line. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.15 scoring average — below par going forward and conceded 0 against a 1.40 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). This one broke away from the data — most of the pre-match signals were overturned by how the ninety minutes actually played out.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.