PAOK 3-2 Aris Thessalonikis – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model rates PAOK at 56%, yet other data sources diverge — this PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis fixture contains genuine analytical tension.
✍️ Match Preview
Analysis
Aris Thessalonikis make the trip to Stadio Toumbas to face PAOK in Super League 1, Championship Round - 7. The match kicks off on Sunday 30 April 2023 at 18:00 UTC.
Form & Momentum
PAOK have collected 1.60 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 5W 1D 4L. Last five: L L W L L. Offensively they are averaging 1.70 goals per game, with 1.30 conceded. 4 clean sheets in 10 games (40%) reflects a solid defensive base.
At home at Stadio Toumbas, PAOK have gone 6W 2D 2L this season (10 games, 2.00 PPG). They are averaging 2.00 goals per home game — a prolific scoring rate in front of their own fans. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Toumbas. At home, both teams have scored in only 30% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle.
Aris Thessalonikis's overall Super League 1 record this term: 5W 1D 4L from 10 games (1.60 PPG). Last five: D L L W W. They are scoring at 1.80 per game and conceding 1.30. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market.
Aris Thessalonikis away from home this season: 2W 2D 6L from 10 away games — 0.80 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.10 goals scored and 1.40 conceded per game. Their away PPG of 0.80 is notably below their overall 1.60 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
A near-identical PPG reading — 1.60 for PAOK, 1.60 for Aris Thessalonikis — means the form record is uninstructive on result selection. The goals and market sections will carry greater evidential weight.
H2H History
The head-to-head record is closely matched — PAOK lead 1W to 0W over the last 1 encounters, with 0 draws, though neither side has established a commanding advantage.
Attacking output has been a hallmark of this fixture. At 3.0 goals per game across 1 meetings, the Over 2.5 has a statistically grounded case from the head-to-head record alone. The most recent clash, on 19 Mar 2023, ended 2–1 with PAOK winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.0 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
Trading Data
PAOK goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at home): they score before half-time in 76% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 50% of the time; BTTS occurs in 44% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 44% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis goal-timing and half-time pattern breakdown (68 games, 34 at away): they score before half-time in 68% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 65% of the time; BTTS occurs in 32% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 41% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time; they fail to score in 37% of games.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 44% versus Aris Thessalonikis 34%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 46% | Aris Thessalonikis 46%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.65 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.72 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.343 / defence 0.760 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.947 / defence 0.986. League average goals — home 1.245 / away 1.000. PAOK carry an above-average attack strength of 1.343 — their λ of 1.65 reflects genuine attacking quality above the league norm. PAOK's defence rating of 0.760 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 52 PAOK games / 52 Aris Thessalonikis games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 56% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 13%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 1.79 | Draw 3.23 | Aris Thessalonikis 7.69. The model has a clear lean to PAOK (56%) — a 43pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 42% | BTTS probability 45% | Total xG 2.37. Under 2.5 has a narrow probability edge at 58% — total xG of 2.37 is below the line but not decisively so. BTTS probability of 45% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Picks & Verdict
On the Poisson output, PAOK are the pick at 56% — clear model lean. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 31% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
On the goals line, Poisson's 2.37 combined xG gives a 42% probability to Under 2.5 — Poisson-only — limited corroboration.
The Poisson model's BTTS call is No at 45%. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 30% | Aris Thessalonikis 40% BTTS from recent games.
🔮 Your Prediction
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis | Competition: Super League 1, Championship Round - 7 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 30 Apr 2023, 18:00 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 56% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 13% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 42% | BTTS 45% | xG PAOK 1.65 / Aris Thessalonikis 0.72 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.343 / def 0.760 | Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.947 / def 0.986 | league avg home 1.245 / away 1.000 • Poisson stance: PAOK (56%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
1.65
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
0.72
Aris Thessalonikis xG
45%
BTTS
72%
Over 1.5
42%
Over 2.5
21%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis kick off?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis kicked off at 18:00 on Sunday 30 April 2023 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK 3 - 2 Aris Thessalonikis.
Where is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis part of?
PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis is a Championship Round - 7 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 56% chance of winning, Aris Thessalonikis a 13% chance, and a 31% chance of a draw — making PAOK the favourite.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our model estimates a 45% probability that both PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 42%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
Record (1 meetings): PAOK 1W | Draws 0 | Aris Thessalonikis 0W.
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in?
PAOK (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.70 / GA 1.30 | L5 L-L-W-L-L. Aris Thessalonikis (all comps): 5W-1D-4L in 10 | 1.60 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 1.30 | L5 D-L-L-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.34x the league average against Aris Thessalonikis's defence at 0.99x — combine the two and it projects 1.65 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — Aris Thessalonikis's attack (0.95x) against PAOK's defence (0.76x) — and the away total comes out at 0.72.
These ratings are built from 52/52 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-0 carries the highest individual probability at 14.0% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 2-0 (12.7%), 1-1 (12.6%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 39% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
PAOK Win
56%
1.78
31%
3.23
13%
7.84
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 0
15.4%
Home win
Most likely
2 – 0
12.7%
Home win
1 – 1
11.1%
Draw
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.65
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.37
0.72
Aris Thessalonikis xG
1.78
56%
Home win
3.23
31%
Draw
7.84
13%
Away win
Goals Markets
68%
Over 1.5
1.47
32%
Under 1.5
3.12
42%
Over 2.5
2.38
58%
Under 2.5
1.72
21%
Over 3.5
4.76
79%
Under 3.5
1.27
9%
Over 4.5
11.11
91%
Under 4.5
1.10
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
45%
BTTS Yes
2.23
55%
BTTS No
1.81
Clean Sheet
49%
2.05
19%
5.20
Win to Nil
27%
3.65
2%
40.73
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 9.4 | 6.7 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 | – |
| 1 | 15.4 | 11.1 | 4.0 | 1.0 | 0.2 | – |
| 2 | 12.7 | 9.2 | 3.3 | 0.8 | 0.1 | – |
| 3 | 7.0 | 5.0 | 1.8 | 0.4 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 2.9 | 2.1 | 0.7 | 0.2 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.9 | 0.7 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Our Poisson model rates 1-0 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 14.0%.
How many goals are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis expected to score?
The model projects 1.65 expected goals for PAOK and 0.72 for Aris Thessalonikis, a combined total of 2.37.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 56%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
Across their last 68 outings, PAOK have picked up 1.82 PPG on a 36W 16D 16L record — L-L-W-L-L across the most recent five.
Aris Thessalonikis's form line: 32W 13D 23L from 68 games, 1.60 PPG, last five D-L-L-W-W.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.82 PPG for PAOK against 1.60 for Aris Thessalonikis. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
On home soil, PAOK have posted 1.97 PPG from 34 outings (20W 7D 7L).
On the road, Aris Thessalonikis have gone 13W 5D 16L from 34 away games — 1.29 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, PAOK come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.60 goals scored and 0.90 conceded per game recently; Aris Thessalonikis are on 1.26 scored and 0.90 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their games; Aris Thessalonikis in 43% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 68 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Current Season
Aris Thessalonikis
Current Season
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 36W 16D 16L in their last 68 games (1.82 PPG), while Aris Thessalonikis have gone 32W 13D 23L in their last 68 (1.60 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or Aris Thessalonikis away?
PAOK's home record (1.97 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 1.97 PPG; Aris Thessalonikis away: 1.29 PPG.
Have PAOK or Aris Thessalonikis been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 43% of their recent games, Aris Thessalonikis in 43%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since March 2023 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 8 February 2026, roughly 6 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 2W 1D 2L from 5 meetings on their own ground against Aris Thessalonikis — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
3
Draws
3
Aris Thessalonikis
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, Aris Thessalonikis have won 3, and 3 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis last play each other?
They last met on 8 February 2026, when Aris Thessalonikis 0-0 PAOK.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 76% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
Aris Thessalonikis are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 68% of their matches.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 44%, Aris Thessalonikis 32% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 44% (PAOK) and 41% (Aris Thessalonikis).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 44% of their matches; Aris Thessalonikis in 35%; Aris Thessalonikis in 38%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / Aris Thessalonikis away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play Aris Thessalonikis?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 44% of PAOK's recent matches and 32% of Aris Thessalonikis's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs Aris Thessalonikis usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 44% of PAOK's recent games and 41% of Aris Thessalonikis's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and Aris Thessalonikis tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 76% of their recent matches, Aris Thessalonikis in 68% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Prediction vindicated as PAOK edge out Aris Thessalonikis 3-2.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat Aris Thessalonikis 3-2 at Stadio Toumbas, Championship Round - 7, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.65 xG and Aris Thessalonikis 0.72 xG, a combined 2.37. The scoreboard read 3-2 for 5 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.4 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Aris Thessalonikis outscored their 0.72 projection by 1.3. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.34 / defence 0.76 against Aris Thessalonikis attack 0.95 / defence 0.99, drawn from 52/52 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 56% | Draw 31% | Aris Thessalonikis 13%, with PAOK to win its most likely call at 56%. The scoreboard confirmed the model's leading pick.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 42%. The game delivered 5, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 72% and landed. Over 3.5 was 21% and came in. On both teams to score, the model sat at 45% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 46% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 46%, Aris Thessalonikis 46%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 39%, which did not match the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (68 games, 34 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 44% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Aris Thessalonikis's trading profile (68 games, 34 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 34% of their matches — today it did; they keep a clean sheet 43% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 1.82 PPG, Aris Thessalonikis 1.60 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) scored 3 against a 1.74 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 2 against a 0.85 concession average — a leakier day than usual. Aris Thessalonikis (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 1.12 average — above their attacking norm and shipped 3 against a 1.03 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 1 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (hit), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.