PAOK 2-0 AEK Athens FC – Result & Analysis
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Poisson model projects a closely fought contest — draw probability sits at 38% as PAOK take on AEK Athens FC.
✍️ Match Preview
Full Analysis
Stadio Toumbas plays host to PAOK versus AEK Athens FC in Super League 1, Regular Season - 23. Kick-off: Sunday 19 February 2023 at 18:30 UTC.
Form
PAOK (all games): 6W 4D 0L across 10 Super League 1 fixtures this term — 2.20 PPG. Last five: D W W D D. Offensively they are averaging 1.80 goals per game, with 0.50 conceded. Defensively, conceding just 0.50 per game is an exceptional defensive record — one of the tightest in the division. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is a standout defensive return — they are keeping their net clean in more than half their matches. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their matches, indicating a tendency toward clean sheets or low-scoring outcomes. This season is still relatively young for PAOK, so this record blends games from this season and last.
PAOK's home record at Stadio Toumbas: 6W 3D 1L from 10 Super League 1 appearances (2.10 PPG). At home they are averaging 1.50 goals scored and 0.70 conceded per game. 6 clean sheets from 10 home games (60%) — they are an exceptionally hard side to score against at Stadio Toumbas.
AEK Athens FC have collected 2.50 PPG across 10 Super League 1 outings this season: 8W 1D 1L. Last five: W W W W W. Their attacking form is sharp — 2.40 goals per game is a high-output rate that commands respect in the goals markets. Defensively, 0.40 goals conceded per game is elite-level — a side this difficult to score against is a real threat to Over 2.5 and BTTS Yes. 7 clean sheets from 10 games (70%) is an exceptional defensive record — they are keeping clean sheets more often than not. Both teams have scored in just 30% of their games, reflecting a regular tendency to keep or record clean sheets. This season is still relatively young for AEK Athens FC, so this record blends games from this season and last.
AEK Athens FC's away record: 6W 2D 2L from 10 road trips in Super League 1 this season (2.00 PPG). They are averaging 1.80 goals per away game — strong road scoring that makes them a threat even without home support. 6 away clean sheets from 10 games (60%) — they are as difficult to score against on the road as they are at home. Their away PPG of 2.00 is notably below their overall 2.50 — form away from home has been a clear weakness this season.
Both sides are running at similar form levels — 2.20 PPG for PAOK against 2.50 for AEK Athens FC. There is no clear form edge to exploit here; other signals need to take the lead.
Trading
PAOK half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at home): they score before half-time in 79% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 64% of the time; they lead at the break 51% of the time; BTTS occurs in 46% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 43% of games (home games); they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time.
AEK Athens FC half-time and goal-timing data (57 games, 28 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; BTTS occurs in 54% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 50% of games (away games); they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — PAOK 46% versus AEK Athens FC 46%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (PAOK 44% | AEK Athens FC 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects PAOK 1.05 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.05 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: PAOK attack 1.055 / defence 0.797 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.271 / defence 0.809. League average goals — home 1.229 / away 1.037. AEK Athens FC have an above-average attack strength of 1.271 — the away xG of 1.05 is driven by genuine attacking quality on the road. PAOK's defence rating of 0.797 is below average — the home backline is amplifying the visitor's projected output. Data: 48 PAOK games / 47 AEK Athens FC games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: PAOK 31% | Draw 38% | AEK Athens FC 31%. Fair-value odds: PAOK 3.23 | Draw 2.63 | AEK Athens FC 3.23. The draw (38%) is the Poisson-preferred outcome — neither side is more likely to win than to draw, making draw-inclusive markets the most model-aligned approach.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 35% | BTTS probability 46% | Total xG 2.10. Under 2.5 is the strongly backed market at 65% probability — total xG of 2.10 sits well below the 2.5 threshold. The model is projecting a tight, low-scoring match based on both sides' defensive quality. BTTS probability of 46% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Final Verdict
The Poisson model's preferred outcome is the draw at 38% — neither side is more likely to win than to draw. Draw-inclusive markets are the most model-aligned approach. Home win at 31% and away win at 31% are close enough that backing either outright carries significant draw exposure.
The Poisson model projects 2.10 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 35% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence.
Poisson assigns a 46% probability to BTTS No based on the attack/defence strength model. Form rates corroborate: PAOK 40% | AEK Athens FC 40% BTTS from recent games.
The outsider holds a 31% win probability per the model — this is not a banker and should not be treated as one. Proportionate stakes are appropriate given the genuine contest the data projects.
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💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: PAOK vs AEK Athens FC | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 23 | Venue: Stadio Toumbas • Kick-off: Sunday 19 Feb 2023, 18:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: PAOK 31% | Draw 38% | AEK Athens FC 31% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 35% | BTTS 46% | xG PAOK 1.05 / AEK Athens FC 1.05 • Poisson strength factors: PAOK attack 1.055 / def 0.797 | AEK Athens FC attack 1.271 / def 0.809 | league avg home 1.229 / away 1.037 • Poisson stance: Draw (38%) — low confidence — close contest
🧮 Prediction Model
1.05
PAOK xG
Expected Goals
1.05
AEK Athens FC xG
46%
BTTS
66%
Over 1.5
35%
Over 2.5
16%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does PAOK vs AEK Athens FC kick off?
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC kicked off at 18:30 on Sunday 19 February 2023 at Stadio Toumbas.
What was the final score in PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
PAOK 2 - 0 AEK Athens FC.
Where is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC being played?
The match is being played at Stadio Toumbas.
What competition is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC part of?
PAOK vs AEK Athens FC is a Regular Season - 23 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our statistical model gives PAOK a 31% chance of winning, AEK Athens FC a 31% chance, and a 38% chance of a draw, making this a very evenly-matched fixture.
Will both teams score in PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our model estimates a 46% probability that both PAOK and AEK Athens FC will score (BTTS).
Will PAOK vs AEK Athens FC have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 35%.
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
No recorded head-to-head meetings available in the dataset.
What form are PAOK and AEK Athens FC in?
PAOK (all comps): 6W-4D-0L in 10 | 2.20 PPG | GF 1.80 / GA 0.50 | L5 D-W-W-D-D. AEK Athens FC (all comps): 8W-1D-1L in 10 | 2.50 PPG | GF 2.40 / GA 0.40 | L5 W-W-W-W-W.
🧮 Model Insight
Behind the Numbers
The model rates PAOK's attack at 1.05x the league average against AEK Athens FC's defence at 0.81x — combine the two and it projects 1.05 expected goals for the hosts. Flip it around — AEK Athens FC's attack (1.27x) against PAOK's defence (0.80x) — and the away total comes out at 1.05.
These ratings are built from 48/47 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
Scoreline Breakdown
Of every possible scoreline, 1-1 carries the highest individual probability at 15.3% — still a long way from a near-certainty, which says something about how open this one is on paper. Close behind: 0-0 (14.0%), 0-1 (11.1%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 40% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Draw
31%
3.23
38%
2.63
31%
3.23
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
1 – 1
13.5%
Draw
Most likely
0 – 1
12.9%
Away win
1 – 0
12.9%
Home win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
1.05
PAOK xG
Total xG
2.10
1.05
AEK Athens FC xG
3.23
31%
Home win
2.63
38%
Draw
3.23
31%
Away win
Goals Markets
62%
Over 1.5
1.61
38%
Under 1.5
2.63
35%
Over 2.5
2.86
65%
Under 2.5
1.54
16%
Over 3.5
6.25
84%
Under 3.5
1.19
6%
Over 4.5
16.67
94%
Under 4.5
1.06
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
46%
BTTS Yes
2.16
54%
BTTS No
1.86
Clean Sheet
35%
2.86
35%
2.85
Win to Nil
11%
9.23
11%
9.21
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 12.3 | 12.9 | 6.8 | 2.4 | 0.6 | 0.1 |
| 1 | 12.9 | 13.5 | 7.1 | 2.5 | 0.7 | 0.1 |
| 2 | 6.7 | 7.1 | 3.7 | 1.3 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 3 | 2.4 | 2.5 | 1.3 | 0.5 | 0.1 | – |
| 4 | 0.6 | 0.6 | 0.3 | 0.1 | – | – |
| 5 | 0.1 | 0.1 | 0.1 | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 15.3%.
How many goals are PAOK and AEK Athens FC expected to score?
The model projects 1.05 expected goals for PAOK and 1.05 for AEK Athens FC, a combined total of 2.10.
How confident is the prediction model for PAOK vs AEK Athens FC?
Not very — the model's leading outcome sits at just 38%, meaning this is rated as a genuinely open contest with no dominant favourite.
📈 Form Insight
The Form Picture
PAOK's recent record stands at 31W 15D 11L from 57 games, a 1.89 PPG return, with D-W-W-D-D in the last five. The sample for PAOK is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
AEK Athens FC, meanwhile, have gone 32W 10D 15L across 57 games — 1.86 PPG, with W-W-W-W-W in their last five. The sample for AEK Athens FC is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
There isn't much between them on recent form — 1.89 PPG for PAOK against 1.86 for AEK Athens FC. Neither side arrives with a clear form advantage.
Home & Away Splits
At home specifically, PAOK have managed 17W 7D 4L from 28 games — 2.07 PPG in front of their own supporters.
AEK Athens FC's away record stands at 13W 8D 7L across 28 trips, a 1.68 PPG haul.
Scoring & Defensive Trends
PAOK are averaging 1.61 goals scored and 0.82 conceded per game recently; AEK Athens FC are on 1.75 scored and 0.89 conceded. Both sides have been difficult to break down recently — a combination that often points to a tighter, lower-scoring game than the average fixture.
Defensively: PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their games; AEK Athens FC in 46% — worth knowing if you're weighing up clean-sheet or BTTS-No markets.
Last 57 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
PAOK
Blended
AEK Athens FC
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are PAOK and AEK Athens FC in coming into this match?
PAOK have gone 31W 15D 11L in their last 57 games (1.89 PPG), while AEK Athens FC have gone 32W 10D 15L in their last 57 (1.86 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — PAOK at home or AEK Athens FC away?
PAOK's home record (2.07 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — PAOK at home: 2.07 PPG; AEK Athens FC away: 1.68 PPG.
Have PAOK or AEK Athens FC been keeping clean sheets recently?
PAOK have kept a clean sheet in 44% of their recent games, AEK Athens FC in 46%.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
History of the Fixture
On record, these two have faced off 10 times since April 2024 — enough meetings to establish some real patterns. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 13 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Records & Recent Trends
For context on how one-sided this fixture can get: AEK Athens FC won 3-0 on 19 Apr 2026, the biggest margin either side has managed in the series.
Specifically as hosts in this fixture, PAOK have gone 2W 2D 1L from 5 meetings on their own ground against AEK Athens FC — worth weighing alongside the overall series record.
Last 10 Meetings
4
PAOK
4
Draws
2
AEK Athens FC
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
From 10 meetings on record, PAOK have won 4, AEK Athens FC have won 2, and 4 have been drawn.
When did PAOK and AEK Athens FC last play each other?
They last met on 13 May 2026, when PAOK 1-1 AEK Athens FC.
Who has won more matches between PAOK and AEK Athens FC?
PAOK have the better head-to-head record, with 4 wins from 10 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
How These Sides Start
PAOK are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 79% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 50% of the time.
AEK Athens FC are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 36% of the time.
Goals & Clean Sheets
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — PAOK 46%, AEK Athens FC 54% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 43% (PAOK) and 50% (AEK Athens FC).
On the defensive side: PAOK keep a clean sheet in 46% of their matches; AEK Athens FC in 36%.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = PAOK home games / AEK Athens FC away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when PAOK play AEK Athens FC?
Not especially — both teams scoring has occurred in only 46% of PAOK's recent matches and 54% of AEK Athens FC's, a rate that leans toward BTTS No.
Is PAOK vs AEK Athens FC usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 43% of PAOK's recent games and 50% of AEK Athens FC's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do PAOK and AEK Athens FC tend to score early?
PAOK have had a goal before half-time in 79% of their recent matches, AEK Athens FC in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
PAOK cruise to a comfortable 2-0 victory over AEK Athens FC.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
PAOK beat AEK Athens FC 2-0 at Stadio Toumbas, Regular Season - 23, in the Super League 1. The remainder of the report sets that outcome against the pre-match model, the markets and the teams' data profiles.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting PAOK 1.05 xG and AEK Athens FC 1.05 xG, a combined 2.10. The scoreboard read 2-0 for 2 actual goals. PAOK beat their projection by 1.0 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. AEK Athens FC landed 1.1 under their projected return. Those figures were built on strength ratings of PAOK attack 1.05 / defence 0.80 against AEK Athens FC attack 1.27 / defence 0.81, drawn from 48/47 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it PAOK 31% | Draw 38% | AEK Athens FC 31%, with the draw its most likely call at 38%. The actual PAOK win had been the model's second-ranked read at 31%, so the result diverged from the top call without being a shock.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 35%. The game delivered 2, so it stayed under — in line with the projection. Over 1.5 had been 66% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 46% and the match did not — another call in the model's favour. Historically the two sides average 50% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (PAOK 44%, AEK Athens FC 56%), a base rate that pointed the other way from today's under. Their combined BTTS history runs at 46%, which matched the one-sided outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
PAOK's trading profile (57 games, 28 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 44% of the time, and duly kept one.
AEK Athens FC's trading profile (57 games, 28 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 46% of their matches — today it did not; they keep a clean sheet 46% of the time, and conceded here.
Form vs Result
The form lines were close — PAOK 1.89 PPG, AEK Athens FC 1.86 PPG — offering no strong steer, and the PAOK win broke the near-deadlock. PAOK (home/away splits) conceded 0 against a 0.82 average — tighter than their form line. AEK Athens FC (home/away splits) managed 0 against a 1.61 scoring average — below par going forward and shipped 2 against a 1.07 concession average — a leakier day than usual.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 2 of 3 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (hit), BTTS (hit). Partial vindication: some calls landed, others slipped.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.