Panserraikos 2-1 Kifisia – Result & Analysis
Fixture360 only lists fixtures from a curated set of leagues, chosen specifically to keep our prediction model accurate.
Poisson rates Kifisia at 55% — current form provides partial corroboration, though signals are mixed in this Panserraikos vs Kifisia encounter.
✍️ Match Preview
Match Analysis
Panserraikos host Kifisia at Dimotiko Stadio Serron in Super League 1, Regular Season - 17. Kick-off is scheduled for Saturday 17 January 2026 at 13:30 UTC.
Form Analysis
Looking at all fixtures this season, Panserraikos stand at 0W 0D 10L from 10 Super League 1 matches — 0.00 PPG. Last five: L L L L L. They are averaging 0.30 goals per game and conceding 2.90 — a modest attacking output that tempers optimism on the Over 2.5 market. However, 2.90 goals conceded per game is a concern — opposing attacks have exploited them regularly. Both teams have scored in only 20% of their games — a low BTTS rate that suggests clean sheets are a regular occurrence. This season is still relatively young for Panserraikos, so this record blends games from this season and last.
At home at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Panserraikos have gone 2W 1D 7L this season (10 games, 0.70 PPG). At home they are averaging 0.60 goals scored and 1.70 conceded per game. At home, both teams have scored in only 20% of games — reinforcing BTTS No as the home-venue-backed angle. Their home PPG of 0.70 is noticeably stronger than their overall 0.00 — Panserraikos are significantly better at Dimotiko Stadio Serron than their overall form suggests.
Across all Super League 1 games this season, Kifisia have recorded 2W 6D 2L from 10 outings — 1.20 PPG. Last five: W D D D D. Their scoring rate of 1.20 per game is modest, conceding 1.30 — not a side to back heavily on the Over 2.5 from their form alone. 2 clean sheets from 10 outings suggests some defensive organisation. Both teams have scored in 70% of their games — a noteworthy BTTS rate that supports the Yes market. This season is still relatively young for Kifisia, so this record blends games from this season and last.
Kifisia away from home this season: 2W 4D 2L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG on the road. Away from home they average 1.50 goals scored and 1.62 conceded per game. Both teams have scored in 88% of their away matches — a high BTTS rate on the road that directly informs this fixture.
The form data does not support a straightforward home bias here. Kifisia are 1.20 PPG ahead (1.20 vs 0.00), making them the form-guided selection despite the trip.
H2H Record
There is little to separate the sides historically. From 4 previous meetings, Panserraikos have won 1, Kifisia 1, with 2 draws — a balanced ledger that offers no obvious directional steer on its own.
The 4 previous encounters between these sides have been high-scoring affairs — 3.8 goals per contest on average. Historical precedent backs the Over 2.5 goals market. The most recent clash, on 29 Nov 2025, ended 0–3 with Kifisia winning.
With the win record balanced, the strongest H2H-derived signal is in the goals market. At 3.8 goals per game historically, Over 2.5 is the cleaner angle to extract from the head-to-head data.
In-Play Profile
Panserraikos in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at home): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in home games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 100% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 67% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 25% of their matches (home games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 38% of games (home games); they fail to score in 69% of games.
Kifisia in-play tendencies (16 games, 8 at away): they score before half-time in 75% of fixtures in away games; when goalless at HT, a second-half goal follows 80% of the time; two or more arrive in the second half on 60% of those occasions; BTTS occurs in 88% of their matches (away games); Over 2.5 goals lands in 62% of games (away games); Over 3.5 in 38%.
BTTS rates are mixed from the trading data — Panserraikos 31% versus Kifisia 75%; no strong lean in either direction. The over/under 2.5 picture is inconclusive from the in-play data (Panserraikos 56% | Kifisia 56%).
Poisson Model
The Poisson distribution model projects Panserraikos 0.88 xG and Kifisia 1.66 xG. These expected goals figures are the primary input: they feed a goal-probability matrix across all scoreline combinations to derive the result and market probabilities below. Underlying strength ratings: Panserraikos attack 0.581 / defence 1.421 | Kifisia attack 1.034 / defence 1.072. League average goals — home 1.416 / away 1.131. Panserraikos's attack strength of 0.581 is below the league average — the 0.88 xG projection reflects a team that scores at a discount to the division norm. Data: 42 Panserraikos games / 16 Kifisia games used (CurrentSeason).
Result probabilities: Panserraikos 19% | Draw 26% | Kifisia 55%. Fair-value odds: Panserraikos 5.26 | Draw 3.85 | Kifisia 1.82. The model has a clear lean to Kifisia (55%) — a 36pp gap over the next-most-likely outcome reflects a meaningful statistical advantage.
Goals markets: Over 2.5 probability 47% | BTTS probability 48% | Total xG 2.54. Over/Under 2.5 is close to a coin-flip at 47%/53% — the total xG of 2.54 sits near the 2.5 margin; this is a low-edge market from a Poisson standpoint. BTTS probability of 48% is moderate — neither team is projected to score with enough certainty to make Yes a clear standalone call.
Summary & Verdict
The Poisson model's primary lean is Kifisia at 55% — clear model lean. Current-season form corroborates the Poisson lean — partial multi-source support. Draw No Bet is worth pricing alongside the outright: 26% draw probability makes the stalemate a live outcome even at this conviction level.
The Poisson model projects 2.54 xG in total — Under 2.5 at 47% — Poisson-only — limited corroboration confidence — though H2H averaging only 3.8 goals per meeting points in the other direction.
On the BTTS market, Poisson puts 48% on No. Form rates are neutral: Panserraikos 20% | Kifisia 88%.
🔮 Your Prediction
Sign in to submit your prediction and see how it compares to the rest of the community.
💡 Key Insights
🏟️ Match Context
• Fixture: Panserraikos vs Kifisia | Competition: Super League 1, Regular Season - 17 | Venue: Dimotiko Stadio Serron • Kick-off: Saturday 17 Jan 2026, 13:30 UTC • Data inputs: H2H history, form splits, prediction model signals, and market pricing
📊 Statistical Prediction
• Poisson result probabilities: Panserraikos 19% | Draw 26% | Kifisia 55% • Poisson goal markets: Over 2.5 47% | BTTS 48% | xG Panserraikos 0.88 / Kifisia 1.66 • Poisson strength factors: Panserraikos attack 0.581 / def 1.421 | Kifisia attack 1.034 / def 1.072 | league avg home 1.416 / away 1.131 • Poisson stance: Kifisia (55%) — strong lean
🧮 Prediction Model
0.88
Panserraikos xG
Expected Goals
1.66
Kifisia xG
48%
BTTS
73%
Over 1.5
47%
Over 2.5
25%
Over 3.5
Full score-by-score matrix & model internals in the "Full Poisson Detail" section below ↓
⚠️ This analysis is generated algorithmically from statistical data and is intended for informational purposes only. It does not constitute betting advice. Please gamble responsibly.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What time does Panserraikos vs Kifisia kick off?
Panserraikos vs Kifisia kicked off at 13:30 on Saturday 17 January 2026 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What was the final score in Panserraikos vs Kifisia?
Panserraikos 2 - 1 Kifisia.
Where is Panserraikos vs Kifisia being played?
The match is being played at Dimotiko Stadio Serron.
What competition is Panserraikos vs Kifisia part of?
Panserraikos vs Kifisia is a Regular Season - 17 fixture in the Super League 1 (Greece).
Who is favourite to win Panserraikos vs Kifisia?
Our statistical model gives Panserraikos a 19% chance of winning, Kifisia a 55% chance, and a 26% chance of a draw — making Kifisia the favourite.
Will both teams score in Panserraikos vs Kifisia?
Our model estimates a 48% probability that both Panserraikos and Kifisia will score (BTTS).
Will Panserraikos vs Kifisia have over 2.5 goals?
Our model puts the probability of over 2.5 goals in this match at 47%.
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Kifisia?
Record (4 meetings): Panserraikos 1W | Draws 2 | Kifisia 1W.
What form are Panserraikos and Kifisia in?
Panserraikos (all comps): 0W-0D-10L in 10 | 0.00 PPG | GF 0.30 / GA 2.90 | L5 L-L-L-L-L. Kifisia (all comps): 2W-6D-2L in 10 | 1.20 PPG | GF 1.20 / GA 1.30 | L5 W-D-D-D-D.
🧮 Model Insight
How the Model Works This Match
Working from Panserraikos's attack rating (0.58) and Kifisia's defence rating (1.07), the model arrives at 0.88 expected goals for the home side. The same calculation in reverse, Kifisia's attack versus Panserraikos's defence, projects 1.66 expected goals for the visitors.
These ratings are built from 42/16 games of current-season data — a full enough sample to trust.
The Exact-Score Picture
Run the expected-goals figures through the full scoreline distribution and 1-1 emerges as the single most likely result, at 13.0%. Close behind: 0-1 (11.6%), 0-2 (10.8%). Those top three scorelines alone account for 35% of the model's total probability mass — a relatively concentrated, predictable distribution for this fixture.
Most Likely Outcome
Kifisia Win
19%
5.25
26%
3.85
55%
1.82
Top 3 Most Likely Scorelines
0 – 1
13.1%
Away win
Most likely
1 – 1
11.5%
Draw
0 – 2
10.8%
Away win
Expected Goals & Win Odds
0.88
Panserraikos xG
Total xG
2.54
1.66
Kifisia xG
5.25
19%
Home win
3.85
26%
Draw
1.82
55%
Away win
Goals Markets
72%
Over 1.5
1.39
28%
Under 1.5
3.57
47%
Over 2.5
2.13
53%
Under 2.5
1.89
25%
Over 3.5
4.00
75%
Under 3.5
1.33
11%
Over 4.5
9.09
89%
Under 4.5
1.12
Match Markets
Both Teams to Score
48%
BTTS Yes
2.07
52%
BTTS No
1.93
Clean Sheet
19%
5.26
41%
2.42
Win to Nil
4%
27.62
23%
4.39
Score Probability Matrix (%)
| H \ A | 0 | 1 | 2 | 3 | 4 | 5 |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 0 | 7.9 | 13.1 | 10.8 | 6.0 | 2.5 | 0.8 |
| 1 | 6.9 | 11.5 | 9.6 | 5.3 | 2.2 | 0.7 |
| 2 | 3.1 | 5.1 | 4.2 | 2.3 | 1.0 | 0.3 |
| 3 | 0.9 | 1.5 | 1.2 | 0.7 | 0.3 | 0.1 |
| 4 | 0.2 | 0.3 | 0.3 | 0.2 | 0.1 | – |
| 5 | – | 0.1 | – | – | – | – |
Green = home win · Grey = draw · Amber = away win · Outlined cell = most likely score
▶ Model Internals
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the most likely scoreline for Panserraikos vs Kifisia?
Our Poisson model rates 1-1 as the single most likely exact scoreline, at 13.0%.
How many goals are Panserraikos and Kifisia expected to score?
The model projects 0.88 expected goals for Panserraikos and 1.66 for Kifisia, a combined total of 2.54.
How confident is the prediction model for Panserraikos vs Kifisia?
Reasonably confident — the model's leading outcome is rated at 55%, a clear lean rather than a toss-up.
📈 Form Insight
Form at a Glance
Across their last 16 outings, Panserraikos have picked up 0.31 PPG on a 1W 2D 13L record — L-L-L-L-L across the most recent five. The sample for Panserraikos is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Kifisia's form line: 4W 7D 5L from 16 games, 1.19 PPG, last five W-D-D-D-D. The sample for Kifisia is still a mix of this season and last, given how young the current campaign is.
Put side by side, Kifisia are the form team by 0.88 points per game — a gap wide enough to matter, though form alone rarely tells the whole story against Panserraikos.
Venue Form
On home soil, Panserraikos have posted 0.50 PPG from 8 outings (1W 1D 6L).
On the road, Kifisia have gone 2W 4D 2L from 8 away games — 1.25 PPG when travelling.
Comparing the two in their relevant venue splits, Kifisia come out ahead — a more targeted read than the overall PPG figures above, since it strips out games played in the opposite context.
Goals in Recent Form
Panserraikos are averaging 0.44 goals scored and 2.50 conceded per game recently; Kifisia are on 1.44 scored and 1.50 conceded.
On BTTS specifically: Kifisia in 75%.
Last 16 Results — Super League 1
Current season: same league only · Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams)
Panserraikos
Blended
Kifisia
Blended
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What form are Panserraikos and Kifisia in coming into this match?
Panserraikos have gone 1W 2D 13L in their last 16 games (0.31 PPG), while Kifisia have gone 4W 7D 5L in their last 16 (1.19 PPG).
Which team has the better venue record — Panserraikos at home or Kifisia away?
Kifisia's away record (1.25 PPG) is the stronger of the two venue-specific splits — Panserraikos at home: 0.50 PPG; Kifisia away: 1.25 PPG.
⚔️ Rivalry Insight
Fixture History
7 meetings separate these sides on the data we hold, the series stretching back to September 2023. Every recorded meeting has come in Super League 1. They last met on 9 May 2026, roughly 3 months ago.
Streaks & Records
The biggest gap between the sides came on 29 Nov 2025, when Kifisia won 3-0 — the largest margin of victory on record between these two.
Panserraikos's record when hosting Kifisia specifically: 2W 1D 1L from 4 games — a narrower, venue-specific slice of the head-to-head picture.
Last 7 Meetings
3
Panserraikos
2
Draws
2
Kifisia
Recent Meetings
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
What is the head-to-head record between Panserraikos and Kifisia?
From 7 meetings on record, Panserraikos have won 3, Kifisia have won 2, and 2 have been drawn.
When did Panserraikos and Kifisia last play each other?
They last met on 9 May 2026, when Panserraikos 1-2 Kifisia.
Who has won more matches between Panserraikos and Kifisia?
Panserraikos have the better head-to-head record, with 3 wins from 7 meetings.
📈 Trading Insight
First-Half Patterns
Panserraikos are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've also shown some fight from behind, salvaging a draw or win after trailing at half-time in 12% of those situations.
Kifisia are typically involved in an early goal — the half-time board shows at least one in 75% of their matches. They've gone in front at half-time 25% of the time.
Full-Time Trends
BTTS sits in mixed territory for this pairing — Panserraikos 25%, Kifisia 88% — no strong lean either way from the trading data alone.
Over 2.5 has been close to a coin-flip for both sides — 38% (Panserraikos) and 62% (Kifisia).
On the defensive side: Panserraikos have failed to score in 75% of games.
Current season: same league only. Previous season: all leagues (covers promoted/relegated teams). All = any venue | Venue = Panserraikos home games / Kifisia away games. HT metrics require half-time score data — shown as — where unavailable.
❓ Frequently Asked Questions
Do both teams usually score when Panserraikos play Kifisia?
Yes — based on recent matches, both teams have scored in 25% of Panserraikos's games and 88% of Kifisia's, a combined rate that favours BTTS Yes.
Is Panserraikos vs Kifisia usually a high-scoring fixture?
Not particularly — Over 2.5 goals has come in for only 38% of Panserraikos's recent games and 62% of Kifisia's, pointing to a tighter contest.
Do Panserraikos and Kifisia tend to score early?
Panserraikos have had a goal before half-time in 75% of their recent matches, Kifisia in 75% — a useful reference point for first-half goal markets.
Shock result as Panserraikos defy the odds to beat Kifisia 2-1.
📝 Match Report
How It Unfolded
Panserraikos beat Kifisia 2-1 at Dimotiko Stadio Serron, Regular Season - 17, in the Super League 1. That is the final score; the rest of this report grades it against what the data forecast beforehand.
The Model vs The Result
The Poisson model went into this projecting Panserraikos 0.88 xG and Kifisia 1.66 xG, a combined 2.54. The scoreboard read 2-1 for 3 actual goals. Panserraikos beat their projection by 1.1 — clinical relative to the chances the model priced in. Those figures were built on strength ratings of Panserraikos attack 0.58 / defence 1.42 against Kifisia attack 1.03 / defence 1.07, drawn from 42/16 games (CurrentSeason).
On the result, the model split it Panserraikos 19% | Draw 26% | Kifisia 55%, with Kifisia to win its most likely call at 55%. Instead the game produced a Panserraikos win, an outcome the model had rated at just 19% — a clear break from expectation and a genuine upset by the numbers.
Goals & Markets
The model rated Over 2.5 goals at 47%. The game delivered 3, so it went over — a miss for the goals model. Over 1.5 had been 73% and landed. On both teams to score, the model sat at 48% and the match saw both sides score — a miss on BTTS. Historically the two sides average 56% Over 2.5 across their same-competition games (Panserraikos 56%, Kifisia 56%), a base rate that agreed with today's over. Their combined BTTS history runs at 53%, which matched the both-scored outcome.
Trading Patterns vs Reality
Panserraikos's trading profile (16 games, 8 home) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 31% of their matches — today it did.
Kifisia's trading profile (16 games, 8 away) set some clear expectations: BTTS lands in 75% of their matches — today it did.
Form vs Result
On form, Kifisia arrived the stronger side — 1.19 PPG against 0.31. Form was overturned, with Panserraikos winning despite arriving in poorer recent shape. Panserraikos (home/away splits) scored 2 against a 0.38 average — above their attacking norm and conceded 1 against a 2.00 average — tighter than their form line.
Verdict
Grading the result against the stored data, 0 of 4 pre-match signals came in: result (miss), Over 2.5 (miss), BTTS (miss), form (miss). A poor return for the projections: the match defied the majority of what the numbers expected.
💡 Key Insights
⚠️ This match report is generated algorithmically from the final score, our prediction model, and each team's historical form and trading data. Analysis is for informational purposes only.